Golovkin vs. Alvarez - This Fight is Worth the Price

It’s here! The day has finally arrived!  For the first time in a long, long time, an actual fight of the century that isn’t 100% manufactured hype. Saul “Canelo” Alvarez is squaring off against Gennady “GGG” Golovkin in Las Vegas tonight.  It’s the best birthday present a semi-regular boxing writer could ever hope for.

I’m not here to tell you how to spend your money. If I was, then I would say - just send it to me. However, if you were to splurge on just one pay-per-view event this decade I would say this is the one. This is what boxing is supposed to be about. Two world-class fighters meeting up in their relative primes.  They’re fighting not just for some belts (although I guess some of them are on the line) but because they want to show who is the better boxer.

The only thing boxing related these two aren’t great at is promoting a fight. This bout should be headlining ESPN, CNN, Sports Illustrated, all of the traditional media outlets. Your grandmother should be posting about this on Facebook. Yet, there is just a mild interest outside of boxing circles. That is just unfair. Floyd Mayweather, Jr. is a despicable human being, but he knows how to sell a fight. Neither fighter involved is a natural showman. They just quietly go about their business.

In street clothes, Golovkin looks like a guy that your friend set you up with because he’s nice and has a good job. Inside the ring, he is a 160lb emotionless wrecking machine.  He’s like a shark in the sense that he is constantly moving forward finding weaknesses.  Early rounds are used to set up later rounds as he probes for an opening. Eventually he finds it and buries a left hook.

No one is ever ready for his power.  They say they are, but they aren’t.  He has quiet power. What’s the tell-tale mark of quiet power? The left-hook delay.  It’s the three or four seconds after his punch lands that it takes for his opponents to realize that it is no longer in the body’s best interest to continue taking punishment.  

The look of someone punched in the stomach by Gennady Golovkin

Golovkin lands the punch, the crowd gasps, his opponent looks like he is ok, after all his hands are still in a defensive position. As GGG reaches back to throw another shot, the man in front of him just crumbles to the ground. That’s quiet power.  Honestly, it’s easy to see why people think they can handle it. A body shot knockout isn’t as glamorous as knocking someone out by punching them in the face. Not that he has any trouble doing that as well.

He has spent the last decade knocking people out. That is not an exaggeration.  Since 2008 only two men have made it to the final bell against him, Amar Amari in June of 2008 and Daniel Jacobs earlier this year. In between those two, twenty-three other men ended their fights against Golovkin on their backs. So why is a knockout machine only a -160 favorite?

First off there is his opponent. Alvarez is no slouch. The big Mexican fighter has a 49-1-1 record and has never been knocked out. And it isn’t because he shies away from contact. He can be hit and he’s proven that he can take a punch.  Granted, he hasn’t been hit with someone of Golovkin’s power, but so far he’s shown a fairly strong chin in his career.

The main reason that Golovkin isn’t an overwhelming favorite is that in addition to facing Alvarez he is facing the undefeated opponent - time. He is 35 years-old, an age at which, unless your name is Bernard Hopkins, skills start to deteriorate. One of the first skills to erode is power.  Knockout punches become knockdown punches and knockdown punches become regular punches.

Was the fight against Jacobs a sign that the Kazakh native is starting to slow down? The cynical critic would say yes. Not only is he starting a decline, but the relatively bad showing, at least by Golovkin standards, is the only reason Alvarez agreed to the fight. It’s a fairly harsh view to have, but if you spend more than two weeks in the boxing world, cynicism becomes your standard default.

Even with a slightly depleted Golovkin, Alvarez is going to have his hands full.  A lot of casual fans only know Golovkin for the highlight reel knockouts, they might fast forward through the rounds where he sets up those devastating finishes. By doing that they miss out on how good of a technical fighter he is. His balance is phenomenal and he can outbox pretty much everyone in the ring.  

This fight is just as important to Alvarez as it is to Golovkin. With a convincing victory over a stone-fisted knockout artist, Canelo can win over the critics who say that he is media creation who has cherry-picked his way to almost 50 wins in the ring. How will he do it? By walking through a thunderstorm to land his punches. He knows he’s going to get hit, he is just betting that he can take the punishment and dole more.

Amir Khan's body told him it was time to take a 10-second nap

It’s not a bad bet. Canelo Alvarez throws no small punches. Not in practice and not in a fight. Every punch the unleashes has energy behind. There are no tap-tap-tapping jabs to gauge distance. He wants to hurt someone every time he lets it go. He will be the biggest puncher that Golovkin has faced. If Saul can absorb the shots, he will put himself in position to do damage.

So the big question, and the only reason why you’re still reading this, is who is going to win this fight?

Two outcomes are most likely:

Golovkin wins by knockout.  Alvarez is not going to be hard to find. He will eat a lot of punches in order to get in position to throw his. If GGG connects with a couple of clean blows, this fight could end early.

Alvarez wins on points.  If he can get inside on Golovkin and smother the smaller man, he can limit the amount of space the Kazakh has to throw his power punches. Not too many fighters have crowded Golovkin for an entire twelve rounds, mainly because it requires getting punched a lot to get in. Despite both of them weighing 160 lbs at Friday’s weigh-in, Alvarez is going to be the much bigger man after he rehydrates up to about 170. He will use that size to bully GGG around a bit. With the bigger man in close, leaning on him, it will be hard for Golovkin to get the space he needs to throw big punches.

It’s unlikely that Alvarez wins by knockout. While Amir Khan and James Kirkland can attest to Saul’s lights-out power, neither really has the chin that Golovkin has.  Gennady has been tagged cleanly a few times in his fights and brushed them off fairly easily.

Golovkin could win by decision. He is the technically superior boxer in this fight. Even if he fails to land the knockout shot, he could do enough damage to convince the judges that he won the fight.

No matter what happens it should be a hell of a fight. The kind that generates long think pieces cleverly  titled, “Don’t Count Out Boxing Just Yet”. Both fighters want to fight and they want to win by knockout. That means they’ll both be coming forward and meeting in the middle of the ring. Both have knockout power and a somewhat casual disregard of defense. Big punches will land. Do yourself a favor and just watch the fight.

The Hopeful Chase Prediction - Golovkin wins a split decision.  Rematch booked for the first weekend in May.

Time for another Big Drama Show. Gennedy Golovkin vs. Daniel Jacobs

Photo by Ed Mulholland/K2

At a certain point in the fight, Gennady Golovkin’s opponents have to make a choice.  It’s not whether to attack or defend, to crowd him or to keep your distance.  Should I attack with a jab or try and counter with a straight right?  The choice is much simpler, which punch do I want to hit me?  It’s a question that really doesn’t have an answer.

A left hook from the Kazakhstan-fighter doesn’t just slow a boxer down or look nice on TV.  It ends fights. The first time it hits you, it takes your breath away and you know if he lands it again you’re in trouble. So you drop your right hand a little and turn away from that killer left hand.  It doesn’t matter, the next thing you don’t see is a right hand crashing against your temple and suddenly you’re on the canvas with an old man covered in your blood counting to ten.  

Is Golovkin a perfect fighter?  No.  He has his flaws.  His defense, either by style or choice leaves a lot to be desired.  There seems to be a point in each fight, usually in the first couple of rounds, where his opponent lands a clean shot.  If Golovkin decides it won’t hurt him, he won’t bother blocking future punches.  Instead he bets that he can dish out harder than the other guy in the exchanges.

If the punch does register on his warning scale, he’ll proceed with a bit more caution.  Not much,but a subtle head movement or a quick shuffle of the feet to avoid the punch and then he counters. He could be a better defensive boxer, but where is the fun, where is the entertainment in that? American boxing fans want to see action, so Golovkin allows a few punches to sneak through before dishing out his own punishment.

It’s a good strategy to employ until you run into a boxer with one-punch power.  In his 36 fights, he’s yet to find that opponent.  Could Jacobs be the one?  

Jacobs will be interesting opponent for Gennady Golovkin.  The New York native has power, it’s been 15 straight fights since a judge’s scorecard came into play for him. His pummeling of Peter Quillin in 2015 was one of the worst first round beatings dished out that didn’t end with someone on their back (the ref stopped the fight after a savage Jacobs’ right-hand left “Kid Chocolate” stumbling around the ring”).

If the victory over Quillin showed what he can do when he’s unleashing a whirlwind of punches, his second victory over Sergio Mora showed Jacobs as the relentless terrorizer, almost a carbon copy of Golovkin.  He stalked his prey, pointedly dishing out power punch after power punch, knocking Mora down time after time until the corner had seen enough.

Besides, after beating bone cancer and being told that he should never box again, what’s the big deal about an unassuming 165 lb. boxer? The affable Brooklyn-born boxer says he doesn’t fear Golovkin. After all, if Kell Brock can land combinations on GGG, why can’t Jacobs.  Unlike Brock, Jacobs has power behind those punches.  Possibly even enough force to stop the seemingly unstoppable middleweight terror.

The problem, and the reason he’s an 8-1 underdog, is even in his victories he’s shown a tendency to get hit.  After knocking Mora down in their first fight, Jacobs eagerly walked into a stiff right that sent him to the canvas. Part of Golovkin’s plan is to give an opponent enough hope to make a mistake.  Let him land a couple of punches, show him an opening and then counter viciously.    

His knockout of Daniel Geale is a perfect example.

Geale was scoring with some punches throughout the round.  Right before the highlight started he clipped Golovkin with an uppercut.  Then Geale throws a right-hand that lands flush on Golovkin’s jaw.  The Kazakh absorbs it and drops his opponent with a short right of his own.  

Fighters don’t shrug off Golovkin punches.  They can spend all three months prior to the fight talking about how they’re not scared of him, or that there is no fear in their heart, but until they stand in that ring and take a punch they have no idea what they’re getting into.  None of his opponents have ever claimed that Golovkin beat them with a “lucky” punch

Whatever happens tonight it is unlikely that the fight is going the distance.  The question for Jacobs is, can he absorb enough punishment to do damage to Golovkin. If he can walk through some of the thundering left hooks, he has a puncher’s chance of winning.  Unfortunately, that is a mighty big if.

Opposite Ends of the Hype Line - Gennedy Golovkin and Mike Lee Both Fight This Weekend

It's a pretty good boxing weekend for one that doesn't include anyone named Mayweather or Pacquiao. Well, good enough for me to shake the dust of the keyboard and bang out some words about it. First up on Friday night, ESPN returns to the Windy City and features quasi-local boy Mike Lee. Sadly I do not have tickets or a press pass to attend. Then on Saturday, Gennedy Golovkin headlines a HBO Pay-Per-View in Madison Square Garden where he looks to add another victim to his hit list.

We'll begin with Golovkin, because he is the most interesting fighter on the list. Born in Kazakhstan, lives in Germany but training in Big Bear, California Golovkin has ascended rapidly up the “must watch” fighters list over the last two years. During that time (which coincided with his United States debut – a blistering TKO victory over Gregorz Proksa) he has gained a reputation, spearheaded by HBO Boxing, as the “Most Dangerous Man” in boxing.

It's easy to like a fighter who finishes off his opponents and Golovkin's string of 16 straight knockouts makes him as easy to like as apple pie on Thanksgiving. He can hit with both hands, throws power punches at will, has the agility and balance that rarely leaves him off balance all while commanding the ring like it's his personal dance space.

He's drawn a lot of comparisons to a young Mike Tyson (maybe we should call him Kazakh Dynamite much like Tyson was Kid Dynamite) for his power and the way opponents are starting to shy away from him. Of course, no one is flat out admitting that they won't fight him, but no one of note seems to be in a hurry to sign the dotted line for a fight.

Not only does he dole out his fair share of punishment, but he's not going to be confused with Winky Wright anytime soon when it comes to defense. He gets hit from time to time, enough so that you begin to wonder if this might be the time he pays the price for keeping his hands down.

I can imagine his opponents thinking, “Hey I just rocked him with a straight right. I can do this” right before they wake up staring at the bright lights and a mustachioed man in a blue shirt waving his arms over his head.

Maybe it's his love of cardigans or huge smile whenever he's being interviewed, but no one scheduled to face him is ever thinks that they're going to fall victim to his fistic bombarment. Granted no one on the professional level is ever going to admit that they're scared of getting hit by their opponent, but some of his victims have been extremely boastful prior to stepping in the ring.

Gabriel Rosado: “I'm gonna smash him”

Curtis Stevens: “I'm coming there ready. I'm not scared, obviously, because I asked for the fight.”

Osumanu Adama: “The difference with me is that I'm not scared of Golovkin”

The point being, you might not fear him going into the fight, but chances are your thoughts will change once your back is on the canvas and the overhead lights are swimming in your eyes.

For boxing fans, enjoy Golovkin for where he is at now in his career. He is getting popular, but he is not at the over-saturation point yet. Sure, there are folks on the internet who say he's overrated, but that's the cynical internet where God himself could come down, heal the sick and lame, end warfare and someone would write, “Ehhh. That's nothing, Buddha would mop the floor with that guy.

Nor has Golovkin risen to the point where he's become the pick and choose, fight two times a year superstar boxer. Remember how much fun it was to look forward to Manny Pacquiao's fights when he was laying waste to his opponents? When he was ripping up De La Hoya and Rickey Hatton? Those were fun days, before the “When Will He Fight Mayweather” talk really escalated or he got mired down by Timothy Bradley.

That's were we're at with Golovkin. His future fights aren't more important than his present fights. Who care's if he'll fight Julio Cesar Chavez, Jr. or Saul Alvarez. All we want him to do is bust up Daniel Geale like a birthday pinata.

I agree that he hasn't fought the best fighters yet, but in this business you still have to work your way up the ladder. He's beating, straight up stole-his-money beating, everyone that enters the ring with him. So enjoy that now. Because it's going to change. It always changes.

I don't know much about his opponent, Daniel Geale. He was born in Tasmania (awesome) and lives in Australia (still awesome) and held both the IBF and WBA super-middleweight titles. His two losses were split decisions that were somewhat controversial and he's beat Felix Strum on points in Germany. Which is like beating Floyd Mayweather on points in Las Vegas. It just doesn't happen.

He seems like a nice fighter. Fairly competent on defense as he has never been knocked out and hasn't been down in a round since 2008. Of course, looking at his list of opponents, none of them has had the power of Golovkin. He is the requisite feel-good underdog. Unlike most fighters, he doesn't seclude himself in a remote fortress when he trains for fights, rather he stays at home with his family. He has even dedicated this fight to his mother who is battling non-Hodgkins lymphoma. And against almost anyone other than Golovkin I would be rooting for him.

Like those who stumbled to the mat before him, Geale isn't afraid of Golovkin. Of course, he can't allow himself to be. Or else the fight is already lost. Geale has to believe that he is different than everyone else who has fought Golovkin. That his defense is tighter. That if gets inside he can do serious damage where others have just annoyed the happy go lucky Kazakh.

Does he have a chance to win? Sure, I'm sure his trainer has developed a plan for him. Maybe not a knockout plan, but a “keep it close on the cards an squeak out a win” plan. Of course, even the best laid plans tend to go awry once a thudding left hook lands on your liver. That's when we'll see what Geale is really made of.

I've never had much good to say about Mike Lee. If I'd listened to my mother then I would never have anything to say about him. I'm sure Mike Lee is a good guy, I'm sure he works with charities and is nice to his mother. For some reason he just rubs me the wrong way – much like Lukas when he played for Liverpool.

Maybe I'm finding out that I have a bias against fighters who've graduated college. Especially fighters who went to Notre Dame. Or the fact that despite being from the area he's only fought in Chicago once (his pro debut). It's probably the Subway deal. You know the one. There are actual recognizable athletes saying how much they like Subway sandwiches and then there is the guy with boxing gloves around his neck.

Imagine if Subway had, instead of Ryan Howard, chosen Jesse Biddle to pimp their Sweet Onion Teriyaki subs. Sure, Biddle might be a star at one point, but right now he's just some face in the crowd. Boxing deserves more than that for one of the few commercials that has a national spotlight.

Despite my dislike of the fighter he is setting himself up for a nice little comeback story. The golden (domer) kid who has a nice contract with Top Rank boxing and a little money coming in from endorsements without really having accomplished in the ring was kind of riding the top of the wave.

Then it came crashing down. A couple of bulging disks in his back and some jaw issues sidelined him for almost two years. His contract with Top Rank expired and wasn't renewed. He left his Texas-based trainer, Ronnie Shields, and signed up with former heavyweight contender Chris Byrd. He TKO'd undefeated Peter Lewison in April and will look to do the same on Friday to Paul Gonsalves.

Those two fighters have a combined record of 13 and 3. In the previous 11 fights his opponents were 39 and 51. So he is stepping up his competition. Hopefully he steps up his work rate as well. He needs to be working regularly to make up for the missing years and for a relatively empty amateur career as well. If he does, then maybe he replaces Mike Jimenez at the top of my Best Chicago Fighters list.

Good Gennady Golovkin Wins Again

With all due respects to the Denver Broncos, there was another one-sided beating that took place in the sports world this past weekend. On Saturday, fast-rising middleweight Gennady Golovkin administered a clinical beating of Osumanu Adama and racked up his 16th consecutive knockout. Unfortunately not many people in America saw the latest conquest by “GGG” as HBO decided not to carry the fight.  Based on the result, the streak and the praise that the boxing world has heaped on the Kazakh I’m pretty sure that it’s the last Golovkin fight that they pass on.

Saturday afternoon’s (and I’m sure the 3.45pm east coast start time played a part in HBO’s decision) knockout didn’t have the awe-inspiring image of a vanquished opponent writhing in pain that Golovkin’s knockout of Matthew Macklin last June did.  In fact, the ref stopped the fight in the 7th round with Adama still on his feet. The quick (but correct) stoppage by Luis Pabon robbed Golovkin of a defining finish, but was totally in keeping with the nature of the fight.

Osumanu Adama is a good fighter, he’s held a belt and his own against champions.  But outside of Chicago, where he trains, he isn’t a “name” fighter.  (Reason number two HBO passed I’m sure).  Adama, however, was a willing fighter.  He tried to take the action to Golovkin, tried to use his jab to keep the WBA/IBO Middleweight Champion off of him, tried to move around the ring and make “GGG” chase him.  He tried, but it wasn’t enough.

Even though Adama landed some clean punches they didn’t hurt Golovkin, and Adama's attempts to evade him were frequently cut off.  The 31-year-old man fighter from Kazakhstan was patient, waiting for his opportunity and then unleashed his trademark thundering punches when he had an opening.  Two of his three knockdowns of Adama came off of jabs, more accumulation of damage as opposed to any one thudding shots.

Adama wasn’t winning the fight. At the time of the knockout in the seventh round I had him trailing 59-53 on my scorecard and could have had it 50-52 (I gave him the third round when Golovkin didn’t seem interested in throwing any punches). The end came kind of suddenly. The seventh round starts off with Golovkin sneaking a left through Adama’s guard that drops him to a knee. Adama didn’t seem hurt, he had no problem meeting the ref’s count and comes out throwing some solid left hooks to the body. That works for about a minute and then Golovkin snaps a left hook that lands flush. The crowd oohs as Adama stumbles backwards. Golovkin casually wipes some sweat off his nose as Pabon rushes in to stop the fight. Just another knockout for The Kazakual Disaster.

Along with patience and power, efficiency runs rampant in Golovkin’s fights.  He doesn’t waste punches or movements.  While Manny Pacquiao at his best is an overwhelming blur of combinations, Golovkin gets the job done in simple two-or-three punch flurries. He has the deceptive speed of great athletes allowing him to be right where he needs to be, on balance, in order to unleash a vicious hook to the body or straight right to the face. Yet it never seems like he is particularly fast in the ring.  When the #fancystats people finally make their way to boxing “GGG” is going to be the defining example for whatever clever word they come up with to describe punching efficiency.   Every punch he throws seems targeted to do maximum damage.

With his Goldberg-like string of knockouts the number one question after this fight is “Who’s Next?”.  He has made it known that he wants to fight Sergio Martinez to decide the best current middleweight. Luckily for fans the promoters shouldn’t be able to screw this one up.  It’s only a matter of time (and health for Martinez) until this fight gets booked.  I’m thinking it headlines a pay-per-view sometime in the spring of 2015.  

Unlike Floyd Mayweather, Golovkin likes to fight.  He had four bouts last year and plans on having at least four this year.  ESPN’s Dan Rafael mentions that Golovkin will headline HBO’s card in April at Madison Square Garden (the same venue that saw him stop Curtis Stevens with a punishing eight round beating) against an unnamed opponent.  According to Rafael, Golovkin is willing to fight anyone from 154 to 168 pounds which opens up a flood of contenders not named Mayweather.

Personally I’d like to see him fight someone with a little bit of power to see what kind of chin Golovkin has.  That is one thing that really hasn’t been tested. In his fights against Adama and Curtis Stevens, he has been hit. That happens when you come straight forward.  To see him in a real slugfest would be interesting to watch. Rafael mentions James Kirkland as a possibility and Andre Ward has called him out in the past year as well.  Julio Cesar Chavez, Jr.’s name has been bandied about and I could see HBO being very interested in making that a big-tent fight in the fall.  It could be a good fight for Golovkin in the sense that JCC is a “name” in the boxing world even if his talent doesn’t live up to his fame.  A decisive victory over a well-known opponent does a lot to drive ticket sales.

No matter who lines up against him from now on, you’ll be able to see it.  Which is a good thing for boxing.  With Mayweather and Pacquiao both heading off into the sunset, the sport needs new “much watch” fighters and Golovkin is one of those guys.