Orioles Victory Card 36: No action at the deadline

Baltimore Orioles Victory Number 36: 8-5 over the San Diego Padres

1987 Topps Mike Boddicker

Yes, this is going to post late. How do I know? Because I'm watching the Orioles Thursday night game as I type this. Part of it is by design (wanted to wait till after the trade deadline), part of it is by circumstance (a friend was in town last night and we went to the Salt Lake Bees game) and part of it is because I was working on some hockey writing (check out Raw Charge tomorrow). Oh, and the typical laziness.

The MLB trade deadline went by on Wednesday and unlike last season the Orioles were not a serious player. In fact, they made all of one transaction. And it didn't even affect the major league roster. Dan Strailey was traded to the Phildelphia Phillies for everyone's favorite asset - cash.

So, Thursday's line-up is pretty much the same as Tuesday's. Trey Mancini is still there. Hanser Alberto is still there, snagging line-drives and flaring base hits into right field. Dylan Bundy will get a start this weekend and at some point we'll see Mychal Givens closing games out.

Mike Elias was undoubtedly on the phones trying to make some magic happen, but nothing materialized. That's not necessarily a bad thing. Chances are the returns just weren't worth making the deals so he passed. Making trades for the sake of making trades is a good way to screw up a rebuild.

For now, they are still Orioles. Will that stay true through the winter? Possibly not. One thing to consider, all of the main trade pieces that could have been moved this week are still under Orioles control for another season. Now they have another two months to boost their trade value.

The Orioles were 12-12 in the month of July and put together their best string of baseball out on the West Coast. If they keep playing like this, it will be because Jonathan Villar is still hitting and Dylan Bundy is getting his workman like 5-inning starts in.

A team may have been interested in Givens, after all not everyone throws 95+ and has a sharp breaking slider. Still, he's struggled to put it together this season and dealing him in July would have been selling him low. If he can harness his potential through August and September, the Orioles may be able to pry a decent prospect out of a competitor.

With the deadline behind them, the players should relax a little and hopefully that translates to about 24 more wins. They're already within striking distance of last year's total and while they have a rough stretch coming up soon, there are also some winnable games on their schedule.

Why is Mike Boddicker staring at you? Well, back in 1988 the Orioles were not very good (starting off 0-21 will knock you out of the race pretty quickly) and Boddicker was a veteran pitcher garnering some interest around the league. There was some speculation that the Orioles wanted to move him to the Yankees for a young right-handed slugger named Jay Buhner.

Instead they dealt the soft-tossing righty to Boston for another young outfield prospect, Brady Anderson, and a double-A pitcher by the name of Curt Schilling. Imagine a world where Brady stays with the Red Sox and Buhner is launching home runs in Baltimore instead of Seattle. Well, for one thing, we would never have had this:

Or this baseball card:

Or this poster:

So, yeah it worked out ok in the end. As for Boddicker, he went 7-3 down the stretch for the Red Sox in 1988 averaging almost 6 innings a start as Boston won the AL East by a game over the Detroit Tigers. Things did not go well in the playoffs as Boddicker started Game 3 of the ALCS and didn't make it out of the third inning as the Oakland A's touched him for three home runs. Mark McGwire, Carney Lansford and Ron Hassey went deep as the A's scored six runs against him on their way to a 10-6 victory. Oakland would sweep the Red Sox before getting eliminated by the Los Angeles Dodgers in the World Series.

Boddicker pitched two more seasons for the Red Sox before joining the Kansas City Royals as a free agent before the 1991 season. Brady Anderson had a pretty good career for the Orioles while Curt Schilling would be part of the Orioles most infamous trade - the 1991 deal for Glenn Davis. 

Orioles Victory Card Number 28: The Trade Season is Underway

Baltimore Orioles Victory Number 28: 2-1 over the Tampa Bay Rays

2019 Topps Gypsy Queen Jonathan Villar

The Orioles made their first real move of the trade deadline as they sent Andrew Cashner to their divisional rival, the Boston Red Sox. In exchange for their most consistent starter this year they received two 17 year-old prospects currently playing in the Dominican league. Welcome to the 2019 Trade Deadline!

Let's face it, the Orioles really don't have the trade pieces that they had last year so the returns they get back aren't going to be overwhelming. If they do make any additional moves, and GM Mike Elias gave the impression that there wasn't much going on, it'll be for similar returns. Don't expect any top-100 prospects to be joining the Orioles this summer. This organization is hurting for depth throughout and so it's just about stockpiling as many assets as possible.

Elias has indicated that he doesn't have any other deals in the works (even if he did what good would it do to release that information at this point?). However, a lot can change in the next two weeks that changes a contender's thoughts about what they need to add and the Orioles do have a few pieces that may help someone out. Let's go through the active roster and see what the O's might be interested in parting with that could net them some more international bonus pool money or low level prospects:


These guys could have been had for nothing so don't expect them to be traded for an actual asset:

First off the players that the Orioles have claimed off of waivers just in the last few months:

Tom Eshelman, Asher Wojceichowski, Aaron Brooks, Tayler Scott. So technically the Orioles traded for Eshelman and Wojceichowski, but still they would have been waived by their other teams. Nont of them have exactly lit up the league to the point where someone would want to put them on a pitching staff that was in contention.

Well, anything is possible, but anyone making this deal should be required to talk to a doctor about a possible concussion.

Chris Davis. For someone who started the season 0-for-ever he's not having that bad of a season. He has power and plays an ok firstbase, but man oh man that contract.

If you had pitched a little better your name would be more popular.

Richard Bleier, Miguel Castro, Mychal Givens, Jimmy Yacabonis, and Gabriel Ynoa.  Let's face it, the bullpen has not been great. Casto and Givens may have had some interest and despite a few improved outings prior to the All-Star break, they just aren't getting enough people out on a consistent basis to generate interest.

Someone has to make it through the rebuild

John Means, Chance Cisco, Anthony, Santander, Stevie Wilkerson, and Richie Martin. They probably aren't the core of the next great Orioles dynasty, but they are young and can help bridge the gap until the other prospects prove they belong in the majors.

Future considerations? Like a Christmas card? Sure, we'll make a deal.

Richard Bleier, Shawn Armstrong, Pedro Severino, Keon Broxton, and Hanser Alberto.  Alberto and Severino may have been my favorite players not named Trey Mancini this season. They are still having fun out there despite the long summer and may add a little something to a team looking for depth. Broxton has struggled at the plate, but his defense and speed could add a longer bench to a team during the expanded roster portion of the season.  Alberto flat out is raking against left-handed pitching (.398/.408/.517 as of publication.  Not a bad platoon option for a team.  The same goes for Severino, he has shown some pop in his bat and can control the running game.

Y'all need some back-ups who could be starters if you're beset by injuries? Or maybe a guy who can get an out or two?  Well do we have some deals for you. All it will take is a little cash or some guy playing in Single-A ball.

Paul Fry, Renato Nunez, Rio Ruiz, and Dwight Smith, Jr. They have all had some decent runs but tend to have a fatal flaw that prevents them from being an every day starter.

Ok.  I'm going to need at least someone that was at least considered a prospect at one point. At least he's one of your top 30 prospects.

Trey Mancini - This was going to originally be entitled "You can pry him from my cold, dead hands" but lets face it, Mancini is the one player on the roster who could also start on a contender. He's a righthander with power who makes a lot of contact and can play either corner outfield spot or first base. He's also the face of the franchise and young enough that he could be a cornerstone during the transition. 


The Hopeful Chase Top Five Trade Candidates:

1. Andrew Cashner
2. Jonathan Villar
3. Paul Fry
4. Renato Nunez
5. Trey Mancini

Orioles Victory Card Number 29

Orioles Victory Number 29: 7-6 over the Boston Red Sox

2018 Topps Team Card

The Orioles picked up their first win since the All-Star Break and the first in the post-Machado era. In doing so they helped the Yankees, who beat Tampa, edge a bit closer to the Red Sox in the standings. Following the game they helped their long time rivals a bit more by dealing Zach Britton to New York for three pitching prospects.

In one week Baltimore has turned two soon-to-be free agents into eight prospects. How will the prospects turn out? It's too soon to tell. I will give credit to Dan Duquette and the rest of the staff for at least pulling in a vast quantity of prospects back even if none of them are sure-fire future superstars. Even with the lack of a Gleyber Torres-esque return, the Orioles have done an excellent job of restocking their average farm system. At least two of the players (Yusniel Diaz and Dillon Tate) will be among Baltimore's top 10 prospects for next season.

With Machado and Britton gone, what next?  There are six days left before the trade deadline so expect more deals. If Dylan Bundy and Kevin Gausman are indeed on the table then there is a chance the Orioles could add at least one more top-10 prospect to their organization. Other than that, look for more organizational filler or even, God forbid, possibly some international bonus money.

Duquette and company have made the two easy trades and have done alright. And while they have talked about a rebuild they haven't committed to it..not yet. In order to complete the burning of Eutaw Street they have to make some tougher decisions. Trading the aforementioned Bundy and Gausman would signal that the rebuild is truly under way.  So would dealing Jonathan Schoop, Mychal Givens or Trey Mancini. All of these players have control past this year and could be enticing to not only contenders, but also teams that have stumbled a bit but are looking to improve. Trading young, controlled talent for future talent is the sign of a true rebuild.

Trading pending free agents is nice, but if they stop there, they can always walk it back in the winter by going out and signing other free agents. Which, I wouldn't put past this organization.  At this point I would say that anyone on the major league roster is eligible for a trade. To truly rebuild it will take a few seasons at which players Schoop and Mancini are going to be free agents. Why not move them now instead of devaluing them like they did with Machado and Britton.

Schoop for one seems to be trying to play his way off of the team as he has been red-hot since the break. He has regained his stroke and blasted 5 home runs and is hitting about .340 over the last week. Surely some team (Milwaukee) could use a second baseman with some pop in his bat. Move him out.

Other than trades, expect to start seeing some of the actual prospects come up. It might not be until September (can't start that free agency clock too soon!)  but I wouldn't be surprised to see DL Hall make a late-season start or two. It wouldn't be shocking to see Ryan Mountcastle or Cedric Mullins pick up some at-bats as rewards for their excellent seasons.

Stretch out some of the players that have already made the team. I hope they keep Yefry Ramirez in the rotation. Keep sending Tanner Scott out there in relief. He may be struggling a bit, but there is no other way for him to learn how to get major league hitters out other than to face them. Lets find out if he's the next Zach Britton or the next Brad Pennington. The same goes with David Hess and Mike Wright, Jr. The Orioles need to find out if they can pitch well enough to carry them through the dark times over the next two seasons.

If they go through with this rebuild it will be a tough couple of years for the Orioles faithful, but if they start now and do it right, then they can build a team that can compete for several years after that.


JustinG.'s Current Trade Rankings (updated!)
(in order of most likely to be traded)

1. Manny Machado
2. Zach Britton
3. Mark Trumbo
4. Jonathan Schoop
5. Mychal Givens
6. Dylan Bundy
7. Brad Brach
8. Kevin Gausman
9. Danny Valencia
10. Adam Jones

Orioles Victory Card Number 27

Orioles Victory Number 27: 1-0 over the Texas Rangers

2018 Topps Zach Britton


We're hitting that point of the season where I'm starting to wonder if anything matters at all.  Yes the Orioles won, which is always nicer than them losing, but still what does it all mean? In about a week the roster is most likely to be decimated. There is a good chance that Manny Machado is still in the organization only so that he can represent the Orioles at the All Star game,  which may be the dumbest reason yet for the Orioles to delay a trade.

The things this management staff does is mindbending at times. Take for instance the handling of Zach Britton. He should have been traded last year and he wasn't because of concern over the health of some of the players coming back in the deal, one of which was Colin Moran. Moran has since been traded to the Pirates and the third baseman has put up a slightly below replacement level season (-0.1 WAR) hitting .262 with 8 home runs and and a .336 on base percentage. If you were wondering yes those numbers are better than either Tim Beckham (by a long shot) and Danny Valencia (comparable).

Since then, Britton ruptured his Achilles which disrupted any chance of trading him in he off-season. It also took him out of action until mid-June. A point at which the Orioles were well out of the hunt for the playoffs. As a left-handed reliever who had a history of being dominant he was, by his very nature, a valuable trade asset. The only question involved was how the injury affected his performance.

For the most part it seems that he is getting back to his pre-injury ability. In fourteen appearances he's allowed runs in only two of them but he struggled with his control early in his return. Luckily for the Orioles (and his trade value) he's shown signs of his old dominance since the calendar flipped to July. In six appearances he's worked six innings, struck out six, walked one and allowed one hit. He's also induced 8 ground balls and allowed only 2 fly balls which indicates his sinker is back to it's pre-2017 nastiness.

So why hasn't he been traded yet? There is no reason to hold on to him, it's not like he's an All Star. Waiting is going to only invite the potential of another injury or bad outing. For the good of all things holy don't make the same mistake two years in a row.

And that's what we've come to. Any good performance by a player is now viewed through the lens of it improves his trade value, not as hope for the future. Valencia hits a home run - trade him. Jonathon Schoop singles to the right side to win a game - trade him. Chris Davis makes contact with a pitch - trade him.

Trade them all now. Blow this thing up in spectacular fashion. Trade everybody and call up the entire Norfolk roster. If someone wants Dylan Bundy and is offering a top-50 prospect, do it. Same with Kevin Gausman and Trey Mancini. Let's burn this thing to the ground. It's not going to make that much of a difference in the standings.

OK.  I'm done.

JustinG.'s Current Trade Rankings (updated!)
(in order of most likely to be traded)

1. Manny Machado
2. Zach Britton
3. Mark Trumbo
4. Danny Valencia
5. Mychal Givens
6. Jonathan Schoop
7. Brad Brach
8. Kevin Gausman

It's That Time! The NHL Trade Deadline is Almost Here!

One of my favorite days of the year is right around the corner.  Hockey Christmas! That’s right, the NHL trading deadline is just over two weeks away. If history is any indication, the market will be heating up soon. In fact the Winnipeg Jets and Buffalo Sabres officially kicked off the festivities a few days ago by swapping injured forward Evander Kane for inconsistent defenseman Tyler Myers in old-fashioned blockbuster trade.

This year, despite the early deadline, I expect a couple of more big deals to be consummated before the actual deadline day. After all, if you’re jockeying for playoff position, why wait a couple of extra games to fill that needed hole in your roster. And if you’re in full “Dishonor for Connor” mode, getting rid of any actual talent you have on your roster might be the difference between drafting first or second (Powerball Winner!) and drafting third or fourth (Scratch Off Winner!).

So will my beloved Lightning be a part of the chaos, the false rumors, the fake B0b Mackensie tweets, and the eventual empty feeling that comes at 5:00pm on March 2nd (Wait, it’s over…there are no more last minute deals? But we didn’t get what we needed! You mean we didn’t get Taylor Hall for the rights to Riku Helenius and Bobby Taylor’s Hattricks Frequent Diner Card? C’mon!)?  Sadly I feel that the answer is going to be no.  I’m sure General Manager Steve Yzerman will kick the tires on a few players, answer a few calls about some of their forwards and then go on about his day of scowling from the press box during game.

This is Steve Yzerman smiling.

Why can he schedule a little more time on the golf course and less time meeting with his scouts? Well, simply put, he’s done a great job of building the roster he has in front of him right now.  So, at best, he might tinker a little or perhaps acquire an extra draft pick or two with a minor deal.  If there are any weak spots on the team right now it would be on the blue line, and those could be considered temporary.  As long as there are no setbacks, and they don’t decide to rehab in the Buccaneers MIRSA-riddled clubhouse, Radko Gudas and Matt Carle should be back in time for the postseason grind.

Among the ever growing Lightning presence on the internets it does seem that Mr. Yzerman will be doing his due diligence to see if he can improve the defense to carry the team during the remaining weeks that Carle and Gudas are out.   The current fill in rotation of Luke Witkowski, Nikita Nesterov, and Mark Barberio has played out as expected.  They’ve had some good games and some not so good moments on the ice.

With the Lightning fighting for the top spot in the Eastern Conference,  it might behoove Mr. Yzerman to find someone who can fit in right away and eat up some of the minutes that the younger players are currently absorbing and then transition to a support role once the regulars are healthy. Oh, and they can’t really cost that much either.

If his past has taught us anything, Mr. Yzerman morphs his needs for what’s best for the organization at the trade deadline. When they’re not in competition for a playoff spot he looks for draft picks and young talent (2012 - young defensemen like Keith Aulie and Brian Lee along with a cornucopia of draft picks, 2013 - Ben Bishop and draft picks).  When they are looking like the playoffs are a possibility he brings in veteran players to fill a need (2011 - Eric Brewer, 2014 - Ryan Callahan. Is anyone trying to trade their captain this year?).

I’ve read in a couple places that Mr. Yzerman doesn’t like trading for “rental players”. That is, players who will be unrestricted free agents at the end of the season thereby only helping the team for a couple of months. Whereas I would say that he doesn’t make a habit of targeting them, he isn’t allergic to the idea either.  After all, both Brewer and Callahan were set to be free agents when Mr. Yzerman made the trade for them. I think the fact that they both ended up re-signing with team makes people forget that he was willing to trade assets for rental players in the past (of course, had Callahan walked the Lightning still netted two first round picks and unloaded a disgruntled Martin St. Louis in that deal so it was totally worth it).

More so than ever I think Mr. Yzerman would be inclined to bring in a player who won’t have to worry about buying property in the area (although if they are I have a nice condo in Largo for sale!). The aforementioned notion that whoever he might bring in will slide down the depth chart once the injured blue-liners return is one reason.

A second reason is, and its importance can never be discounted, finances. The Lightning aren’t exactly abounding with room under the salary cap. While they’re pretty set for next season (Brenden Morrow is their only unrestricted free agent) signing anyone with a long-term commitment could make things a bit dicey for the capologists in the area.  So don’t expect Oliver Ekman-Larsson or Dion Phaneuf to come walking through that door.

Also, players with controlled costs tend to fetch a bit more on the trade market. Arizona is committed to Ekman-Larsson for four more years at $5.5 million. That’s not a horrible contract for a top pair defenseman. And it’s only going to look better as salaries go up, so to pry him away it’s going to take a pretty nice package.  There is no pressure for Arizona to deal him right at this moment. They can quietly listen to offers and if nothing makes them happy, they can just keep him.

In comparison, Zbynek Michalek is a pending free agent.  There is a little more urgency to deal him because if they don’t he has the ability to walk away leaving Arizona with nothing but $4 million in extra cap space. So teams calling General Manager Don Maloney have a little bit more negotiating power.  So a second round pick and a fringe prospect might do it as opposed to a first rounder and top prospect for Ekman-Larsson.

The Lightning don’t really need to bring a defenseman that they’re going to keep past this season. Carle, Anton Stralman, Victor Hedman and Jason Garrison (the nominal top 4) are all signed long-term. The young guys like Gudas, Barberio and Andrej Sustr are still under team control. It doesn’t really make sense for them to take on a player with 5 or 6 years left on their contract when the organization has more pressing financial decisions to worry about (yes this is an oblique reference to Stammergeddon II).

So let us get to the real reason you’re reading this column.  Who do I think the Lightning should go after (also known as what names am I going to add to the rumor mill with absolutely no factual evidence to support my claims)?

6. Andrej Meszaros - He’d be cheap! The former Bolt hasn’t played much recently (only one game in February) but he plays for a team that is in sell-off mode and could do alright getting 15 minutes a game. At worst it would cost the Lightning a mid-to-late round draft pick.

You know you want him back! Dust those jerseys off.

5. Cody Franson - I actually think the Toronto blue-liner would do well in Tampa, but he’d also do well in other uniforms. With Myers off the market the 27-year-old might be one of the top players on the market. A bidding war could drive his cost past what Mr. Yzerman is willing to pay.

4. Jeff Petry - Switch “Toronto” with “Edmonton” and you have the same story with Petry.

3. Nick Schultz - The Flyers signed Schultz as insurance in the off-season and he’s been the poster boy for why players take a chance on one-year deals. He’s played top-pair minutes and held his own on a Philadelphia team that is on the outside looking in.  There is a good chance that he parlays this season into a multi-year deal this summer.  Would the Lightning be willing to part with a young forward to bring in the 32-year-old?  Perhaps.

2. Zybnek Michalek - The previously mentioned Coyote has been mentioned in rumors since January. Mr. Yzerman might have held off on trading for him while he monitored the play of his young replacements.  Without a second round pick to deal, it would probably cost the Lightning a player like Brett Connolly or Vlad Namestikov to top what other teams can offer.

1. Marc Methot - His name is starting to crop up more with Myers now in Winnipeg. Supposedly the Senators are working to re-sign him, but have not ruled out trading him at the deadline (after all they could theoretically trade him and then re-sign him in the summer). Injuries have limited his time on ice this season, but he has played well when he’s been on the ice.


The Lightning have a couple of arrows in their quiver to offer teams. Despite not having a second round pick (the asset de jour) they do have an extra picks in the first (thank you Marty), third (thank you Eric Brewer) and fourth (thank you Nate Thompson) . Couple one of those picks with one their extra forwards that are battling for playing time (Connolly, Namestikov, JT Brown) and that’s not an unattractive offer for a team that is rebuilding.

Thankfully, due to all of the work he’s put in over previous years,  it shouldn’t be a particularly stressful or interesting deadline for the team and its fans. Of course, all that means is that Mr. Yzerman is sitting in his lair plotting ways to make his future teams better.

Never forget those that have netted the Lightning picks on Deadline Day. #DownieForever (photo by Scott Audette)

Fan Favorite Conacher Traded For A Really Tall Guy

Cory Conacher is the new points leader for the Ottawa Senators

When I started writing this blog, well actually the other blog, I told myself that I would follow a couple of rules.  One of them being, “Never write anything when you’re angry.”  More than likely if I didn’t follow that rule I would go off on some rage-fueled rant about something or another and then feel embarrassed about it the next day.  Not that I don’t feel embarrassed about half the things I post anyways, but that’s just because I don’t really edit my work. So that is why I didn’t write anything about the move the Tampa Bay Lightning made during the trade deadline yesterday.

I love the NHL trade deadline.  I love it even more when I have the day off and can fully enjoy it without interruption.  I love it especially now in the twitter/24-hour coverage/live-streaming world that we live in. You literally cannot get enough NHL talk on Hockey Christmas.

So I was doing my thing (sitting on the couch refreshing twitter and surfing the web while listening to TSN radio) for most of the day and it looked like it would be a quiet day for the Lightning.  After all, they weren’t really in a position to go all in, and it didn’t seem like there was much demand for the players they had (although with the price being paid for defensemen I’m surprised Sami Salo didn’t draw any interest). There were some rumors floating around that the Lightning were one of six teams interested in Ben Bishop, but nothing concrete from any of the insiders (or insiderrrrrs).

Overall there wasn’t much going on overall in the morning, in fact, the most entertaining aspect was watching the guys for The Score get increasingly drunk as the day went on thanks to their Deadline Day drinking game. So at about 1pm CST The Duchess and I went out to lunch.  While we were at Kuma’s Too (brand new sister location of Chicago’s legendary burger bar/hard rock shrine Kuma’s Korner) I couldn’t resist occasionally checking my phone to see what was going on.  Needless to say, my better half wasn’t amused by that.

As we were finishing up our beers (Three Floyds Robert the Bruce for me) Bob McKenzie sent out the tweet heard ‘round the Tampa Bay area, “Ben Bishop informed he’s been traded to Tampa.”  My initial thought, “Ehhh.  They finally got him, wonder who they gave up for him.”  I figured it would be some combination of a pick and a B-level prospect (or in my wildest dreams a semi-healthy Ryan Malone).

Then the follow-up tweets began.  First it was Darren Millard and then Bruce “Not many fans in Tampa” Garrioch.  They both had the same name – Cory Conacher. I was not pleased.  In fact, I was quite agitated, one might even say angry.  That’s despite the fact that I am at the age where anger shouldn’t really be an emotion associated with sports.  Disappointment, yes.  Jubilation, yes.  But anger, never anger, after all it’s only a game.  Why let it hijack my emotions to the point of being physically upset?

However, there it was - anger.  How could the Lightning trade one of their new fan favorites, the five-foot-nothin, one-hundred-and-nothin’, undrafted scrapper who clawed his way into the NHL by outworking and outscoring everyone else? He is a rookie-of-the-year candidate for goodness sake! The online fan base will no longer be able to use the #DeathTaxesConacher on out tweets anymore. The undersized line of Conacher, Tyler Johnson and Martin St. Louis would never exist again.  All for another oversized goalie with potential?

Now imagine that paragraph spread out over a thousand words.  That’s what you would have read yesterday had I taken to keyboard as soon as I had gotten home from the burger place.  Instead, I waited. I waited through the final flurry of deals, through Bobby Luongo’s “My Contract Sucks” press conference, through the endless speculation involving the Washington/Nashville deal and finally through the knee-jerk-who-won-who-lost analysis of the day. I watched some TV (The West Wing) and went to sleep.

Now I’m writing.  I still don’t like the deal, but I’m not so upset about it.  Non-partisan reviews have made me feel a little better about the move. Yes, it was a steep price for Mr. Yzerman to pay, especially given the exorbitant price he paid in the off-season for Anders Lindback.  If you’re following along at home the current price tag for the future in the Lightning net stands at Cory Conacher, a 4^th round pick, Sebastien Caron, two 2^nd round picks and a 3^rd round pick. Oh and neither one is signed past next season.

While the reports on Bishop are positive, like Lindback before him, he hasn’t been tested as a true number one. I wonder if Mr. Yzerman is that blackjack player who, after being dealt a few losing hands, starts doubling his bets in order to make his money back.   He’s been able to build a young, solid team in front of the net, but inconsistent goaltending has plagued his regime and already cost one coach his job. 

If Bishop struggles in Hockey Paradise I willing to wager the next coach collecting unemployment will be Frantz John. The relatively under-the-radar goaltending consultant has been with the organization since 2010, joining the team after spending many years in the QMJHL. During his tenure only Dwayne Roloson in 2010-11 played anywhere near an acceptable level in net while two players (Mike Smith and Dan Ellis) have gone on to play much better with their new teams. 

Mr. Yzerman’s legacy is going to hinge on the two deals he made for goaltenders.  The luster of the Eastern Conference Finals run has worn off.  The sellout streak has ended. Next season is going to be interesting as the team already has $61 million committed to the roster and still has to get Bishop and at least five other players signed with less than $4 million to play with (actually closer to $7 million if they put Mattias Ohlund on Long Term Injury Relief). Couple that with moving to a tougher division and the questions really start to pile up.

In the end the deal does, at least on paper, make the team better. Does it make the fans happier?  Well, that depends on Ben Bishop and how many wins he gets.  

Question of the Week - Final Thoughts on the Deadline

At the 2000 deadline the Lightning acquired the immortal Dwayne Hay. So yeah, this year wasn't too bad.

Here we go with round two of The Raw Charge Question of the Week!  Yeah, I missed last week’s question what with all of that boxing stuff I posted, but now I’m back on point and raring to write some hockey stuff.  The question, put forth by Editor John Fontana, is:

How would you describe the Tampa Bay Lightning’s tradedeadline moves?

In one word – strategery.  

Just kidding. 

I would say progress.

Taking into consideration the moves made before the actual deadline day on the 27^th, General Manager Steve Yzerman brought in several assets that will benefit the organization in the long term. While it did cost him a popular player in Steve Downie and left the team with essentially one scoring line as it fights for its playoff life, the draft picks and young players he brought in continues the rebuild he started when he took over control of the club.

Please remember that the product on the ice is still a work in progress.  He openly admitted that he delayed some of his plans to restructure the farm system when last year’s squad got themselves involved in a legitimate Stanley Cup run.  This season’s are-they-aren’t-they-in-the-race run hasn’t been easy for him to judge either.  Sure they were only 8 points out of a playoff spot at one time, but they were also only a point or two away from last in the conference and a top 4 draft pick at the same time.

With the Dominic Moore, Pavel Kubina and Downie moves he signaled that he wouldn’t be a buyer as the deadline moved in, but that’s not the same as being a seller.  The Steve Yzerman Garage Sell and Pancake Social never opened.  Rather he kept his phone lines open and waited to see what would end up in his lap.

In the end, he brought in three new defensemen in Keith Aulie, Mike Commodore and Brian Lee (who I will call Chris Lee at least once in the foreseeable future. I can’t help it, I worked with a Chris Lee for a long time) in exchange for Carter Ashton, Matt Gilroy and a conditional draft pick.

For the record I think Commodore is here for the next 20 games and that’s it. It was purely a depth move for a defensive unit that lost Victor Hedman and doesn’t know when Marc-Andre Bergeron and his 65-year-old back will return.  I have no problem with Mr. Yzerman bringing in a veteran player for basically a couple of game checks and a pick that the Bolts will probably end up keeping.

The Gilroy-for-Lee deal I see as a lateral move.  They are two young defensemen who have potential that may have stalled in their current organization.  More so in Lee’s case than Gilroy’s.  The former Boston University Terrier showed some offensive promise in Coach Boucher’s scheme, but also struggled with defensive zone coverage.  Given a full season I wouldn’t have been surprised to see him figuring it out and even eventually manning a power play point, but in the end the play of Brendan Mikkelson made him expendable. 

Now, the one move I’m still questioning is the Carter Ashton trade.  A lot of Lightning fans have mentioned that the organization has a lot of offensive prospects in the farm system.  I say you can never have enough.  The jump from the American Hockey League to the NHL is prodigious. No matter how good Cory Conacher or Tyler Johnson has looked in Norfolk there is no guarantee that they are going to be able to do the same with the big boys.

Having as many potential contributors available to promote heightens the chances that at least one of them will succeed.  Especially one who is a big-bodied forward willing to crash the net.  However, in order to get something of value one has to trade something of value (despite what people on message boards tend to think).

If Mr. Yzerman believes Keith Aulie can develop into a top-pairing defenseman then moving Ashton is worth it.  A Hedman-Aulie pairing could be a defensive foundation for the Lightning for many years to come.  If that happens then this trade ends up looking like genius while I, as usual, have to admit I was wrong.

There was a lot of screaming on the internet and radio about Mr. Yzerman needing to pick up a goalie at the deadline.  That wasn’t going to happen.  When Paul Gaustad, basically a solid defensive forward, goes for a first round pick then Corey Schneider and Jonathan Bernier are going to cost a fortune.  It was a seller’s market and Mr. Yzerman wasn’t going to overpay for what he wanted.

Yes, I will use this everytime I mention SY's "vision".

The GM had a vision for this team when he took it over, and he’s not going to change it to meet expectation based off the team overperforming last season. He knows that to make this team competitive for the long haul he needs to find and build off of young talent.  That’s what he did in this deadline and I can’t feel bad about that.

Trade Deadline! Time for a Running Diary

Welcome to Rick Nash Day!

It’s time for my favorite day of the year – the NHL Trade Deadline Day! It’s the day where playoff bound teams find the missing piece of their Stanley Cup puzzle and struggling teams stockpile for the future.  Where do the Lightning stand – somewhere in the middle.  General Manager Steve Yzerman has sold off two of his best assets in Dominic Moore and Pavel Kubina, and he pulled a bit of a surprise by turning Steve Downie into a 1^st round pick.

For the most part he’s said that he’s done with the big trades and he’s basically run out of live bodies to trade. Will that just be Mr. Yzerman setting a trap for other GM’s? Or is he happy with the roster as it currently sits? Only time will tell so HERE WE GO……

(all times Central, cause I live in Chicago folks!)

7:42am – Boot up computer.  Internet is down. Contemplate firebombing AT&T then I realize it wouldn’t do any good so I add “Call Comcast” to the list of things to do.  Unplug modem, plug it back in and start making breakfast.

8:00am – Internet is back up, but I realize I am too lazy to make breakfast so I grab the open box of Tagalongs and finish them off.  Currently have twitter, tsn.com, Sportsnet trade special streaming and yahoo mail up.  Fire off first update to friends who are working.

8:13 – You know it’s a slow start to the trade deadline when the big names being thrown around are Steve Ott and PA Parenteau. Best part of watching trade coverage – the analysts talking while looking at their Blackberry’s and texting.

8:24 – Love that Sportsnet has Brian Lawton on a panel of experts.  “Hey I traded for Teddy Purcell!!!” He also tried to trade a draft pick the team didn’t have for the late Derrick Boogaard. Joining him on the panel are Neil Smith and Pat Quinn.  It’s like a room full of people openly begging for a job.

8:27 – The Twitter stories going out with the “Lightning are done”. It’s really the only Lightning news hitting the Twitter-wire.  Is Mr. Yzerman playing coy on his thin cupboard of assets? Oh Nigella Lawson tweets a recipe for a “ridiculously easy spinach and coconut soup”

8:35 – I’m working on some copy about flash drives.  Luckily I sold the stuff long enough that I don’t have to focus on research too much. Which is kind of hard to do that when I’m checking Twitter every 30 seconds.  Oh my Boston calling troops up from the AHL! 

9:29 – There is not much happening so I spent most of the hour cleaning up the “work” I was doing.  It looks like the first deal is close to being done.  Nashville reunites the fabulous Kostitsyn brothers.  Love the paparazzi style TV coverage of Brian Burke walking into a building.

9:45 – I get the shower out of the way and return to  Pierre Lebrun reporting that the first trade of the day is finished as Kostitsyn goes to Nashville in return for a 2^nd round pick and the conditional pick Nashville got in the Hal Gill trade.  Whatever happened to no takebacks?

9:57 – There are a lot of tweeters going with the “NOT” posts. As in Paul Gausted is NOT going to Detroit.  Let me try one. Steven Stamkos is NOT going to Columbus.  Yea. I’m an insider now.

10:10 OMG Joffrey Lupul has a soft cast on.  What does it all mean? It means it’s time for me to get a sandwich.  Love the tweets “so-and-so” just came off the ice.  Montreal was smart to cancel team practice.  It’s just not worth it for the players to be put through the speculation. Pat Quinn just referred to his panel (with Lawton and Neil Smith) as the “Dead Poets Society”.  Made me chuckle.

10:18 – Have a feeling Brian Burke is trolling the media.  Walking between buildings and feeding James Reimer rumors. I wouldn’t be surprised if he started tweeting random information.

10:34 – The cat joins me on the desk and I start scrolling through thechive.com .  In other words, not much going on.  I don’t see the Bolts being too active today, although if the price stays high on some of the names out there teams might turn to Yzerman for Hall or Clark.

10:39 – Is the Nash hype any different than the Brad Richards hype from last year?  Chances are the result will be the same.  To trade someone who has been the face of the franchise since the moment he was drafted would take a franchise-altering bounty.  That’s not something that can come together in 3 hours.  Better to wait until the draft

10:55 – Still holding by my declaration not to read the comments made by St Pete Times readers on Lightning related articles.  Feel like my blood pressure has dropped by at least 3 points. Whole lot of nothing going on officially which has led to a lot of trade jokes involving sandwiches. Joe Jonas is the sexiest has been trending all day long on Twitter.  Just thought you should know that.

11:03 –one of the “anonymous” bloggers is reporting that the Nash banner is being taken down in Columbus.  He also reported that Paul Gaustad was going to Detroit.  Soooo yeah…

11:05 – Jets claim Grant Clitsome on waivers! Waiver moves way more interesting than trades so far today.

11:12 – Lightning news – Teddy Purcell named 2^nd star of the week.  Good news for my fantasy team which is fighting for its playoff life.

11:36 – Sportsnet was coming up with reasons for the lack of activity today and mentioned the parity in the league as if it’s a bad thing.  If I’m a fan of a team I’m more excited that they’re in a position to make the playoffs then in a position to sell. As much as I like big trades, I’m not sad the Lightning aren’t more active today.

11:44 – And just like that Steve Yzerman pulls the trigger picking up Mike Commodore.  No word on what went the other way yet.  To me this makes me think Hedman is going to be out longer than expected.

11:53 – Some confusion over his contract status.  He signed a one-year, $1 million contract with Detroit this year after his previous contract was bought out.  So he’ll be a UFA in a couple of months.  Didn’t cost anything (7^th round pick) and gives the bolts some depth.

11:56 – Things picking up as Edmonton trades Tom Gilbert to Minnesota to Nick Schultz.  Some rumors saying Detroit is close to dealing a d-man and Chicago is close to picking up Johnny Oduya .  Guess everyone needed some lunch to think over the deals.

1:02 – With an hour or so to go, Mr. Yzerman continues his defensive overhaul.  Prospect Carter Ashton to Toronto for Keith Aulie.  Matt Gilroy to Ottawa for Brian Lee.  I wouldn’t be surprised if 2 of the 3 d-men picked up today are in the lineup tomorrow.

And I was never able to use my "Gilroy was here" photoshop

1:10 The trades are coming in now, but no big name deals.  A lot of depth moves going on like Paulson to Vancouver and Oduya to Chicago.  These are good solid moves that end up meaning more than trading for the big name.

Well he's been in one fight, that's one more than Gilroy.

1:13 – Not sure who the grumpy radio guy is on SportsNet, but his shtick isn’t going over well.  Thanks for playing Saliva though, guys!

1:18 – Starting to come around on the Aulie deal.  Still not a big fan, but the Lightning desperately need depth on the blue line and Aulie is only 22.  He could be a solid foundation along with Hedman.

Wait, a d-man who knocks people over? I'm listening....

1:25 – Other than Martin Short I’m not sure who they are, but the “Canada’s Got Talent” judges seem excited to have their jobs. I find out that the conditional pick the Lightning are sending to Detroit for Commodore is based on the Lightning making the playoffs and Commodore playing 15 games. So basically Mr. Yzerman gets him for nothing.

1:26 – If Columbus doesn’t trade Nash it will be interesting to see how they use the picks they’re acquiring to build around him.

1:40 – 20 minutes to go and if I had to wager right now, none of the big names will move. Doesn’t mean they won’t move in the summer.  I’m kind of surprised that not a single goaltender has moved yet. Oh and in case you’re wondering….yeah none of the names I mentioned have been traded by the Lightning.

2:05 – The deadline shows up and a few deals are trickling as are the confirmations from teams that they are done for the day.  Looks like Nash finishes the season in Columbus. Will make for an interesting summer in Columbus.

2:09 – Spent 6 hours staring at twitter.  Did manage to write a couple of product review during that time, but still feels like a bit of a waste.  For next year I think Deadline day will start at 10:00am.

2:11 – I find it funny that the “anonymous” rumor mongers taunt legitimate reporters who actually have reputations to protect.  Taunting Darren Dreger because he is actually confirming Greg Zanon to Boston instead of tweeting it first is weak.

2:33 – I enjoy Brian Burke as the Maple Leafs GM.  Not sure how I’d feel about him as the Lightning GM.  He’s taking the Toronto media to task for the stress they put on players around the deadline. Small deals still trickling through the twitter-wire with 34 minutes gone past the deadline.  Not the best deadline in terms of big names being moved, but a couple of teams made solid moves.

2:39 – With a late Cody Hodgson deal to Buffalo I’m shutting it down.  Everyone on my email chain is on their own.

There ya go.  The Lightning did indeed become a player on deadline day as Mr. Yzerman continues to revamp his blueline.  I’m not sure if I’ll ever come fully around on the Carter Ashton deal, I just have a feeling that he’s going to be a solid player in the NHL for a long, long time.

For me the Gilroy for Lee deal is a lateral move.  Two teams traded young defensemen who haven’t fulfilled their potential yet.  Sometimes a change in scenery is what they need.

I think Nashville  was the boldest team as they went for offense with Kostitsyn and Paul Gaustad (which cost them a 1^st round pick).  Vancouver made some solid pickups to strengthen a very good playoff-bound team.  I’m not sure what Washington was doing sitting on the sidelines and the same can be said for Philadelphia

It wasn’t the most exciting deadline in history, but with a lot of teams still in the race and the looming CBA crises I didn’t think it would be. 

The Lightning and The Deadline - I Name Names

"We traded who? Is he on my line? No. Ok. I'm going to go score a goal now."

It’s time to light the fires on one of the best weeks in the NHL.  Well, the best week that doesn’t involve playoff games, that is.  From now until the 27^th phone bills around the league are skyrocketing as general managers try to find the final pieces for their playoff teams. Or, teams that are out of the race look for the building blocks for next season.

The Lightning are occupying the nebulous area in between the two right now.  They currently stand six points out of the eighth and final playoff spot with at least a game in hand on everyone they’re chasing.  The problem is that there are a bunch of teams that they are chasing. Including the eighth-spot Maple Leafs there are five teams within six points (and two more seven points out).  That’s a close race.

It’s closer than last week when Steve Yzerman admitted he was looking for the future instead of this season as the deadline approached.  His actions echoed his words as he was able to move Dominic Moore to the San Jose Sharks for a 2^nd round pick and Pavel Kubina to the Flyers for a conditional 2^nd round pick (either this draft or 2013), a 4^th round pick and a John Kalinski. 

What a John Kalinski looks like.

Mr. Yzerman turned two unrestricted free agents into three draft picks and a fringe prospect.  That isn’t too shabby. I like Kubina, but he doesn’t fit the defensive mold that he and Coach Boucher have been looking for in their two seasons in Tampa Bay.  If you take a look at who’ve they’ve brought in they’ve all been younger, puck-moving defensemen.  The only exception left on the roster right now is Brett Clark, and not to foreshadow the rest of the column, I wonder if he’ll still be here in a week.

What hasn’t been mentioned too much in the press about these moves, is that the Lightning saved a little over $1 million in real salary.  Even with owner Jeff Vinik raising the team’s payroll over the last two seasons, they still have to be careful with their money.

 Attendance has been steady this year despite the team’s struggles (ESPN has them ranked 13^th in home attendance averaging 18,334 fans per contest).  With a notorious fickle fan base, throwing in the towel could see a drop in fans showing up which could hurt the team financially.  Saving a little bit of money while stocking future assets is a win/win for the organization.

I’ve thought for awhile that this team hasn’t performed to the level of a playoff team.  Even if they do leapfrog the teams in front of them, they still look like first round fodder for the Rangers or Flyers.  Even with the better play of late they’re struggling to make up ground.  It seems when they win, so does everyone else around them. 

With the team winning twice since Mr. Yzerman began his team transformation he has backed off his fire-sale mentality and said that he’ll let the team on the ice play out the year.  Which to me means, he doesn’t have anything pending and if nothing pops up he has no problem waiting till the summer to finish refurbishing the squad.

However, I don’t think he’s ignoring the phone.  Kubina and Moore were probably the top two assets on his trade list, but that doesn’t mean he is currently out of bullets.  From surfing the web and seeing what other teams are looking for, here are the players that I think could still move:

-          Adam Hall – a solid defensive center with face-off skills. He could fill a role a roll for a team looking for depth.

-          Brett Clark – he’s not flashy, but he blocks a lot of shots and can fill in on the power play occasionally.

-          Ryan Malone – the name drawing the most chatter, but I think his health history might keep some teams away.

-          Mathieu Garon – my dark horse trade candidate.  Say the Kings move Jonathon Bernier for offense, it wouldn’t be impossible to think they might pick up Garon as insurance against injury.

Overall, I think the trade deadline will be quiet this year due to two factors.  One, so many teams are in contention there aren’t that many big name potential free agents available.  Secondly, with an uncertain future in regards to the CBA, GM’s might be wary of taking on a long term contract.

I’ll still be following along, trying to weed out the fake twitter accounts (hint, check number of followers and previous tweets) and reading between the lines. 

Your Steve Downie Photo of theWeek - Steve Downie Goal Scorer

Time to Sell? The Lightning at the Half-Way Point

Now, more than ever, it looks like the chances for postseason are sliding away for the Tampa Bay Lightning. On Tuesday they take on the Western Conference leading Vancouver Canucks at the newly christened Tampa Bay Times Forum (it will always be the Ice Palace to us) fighting for their postseason lives.  While no games are must win until facing elimination, every game from now on is pretty damn important.

 The Bolts return from a road trip through Canada that started with high hopes.  Having won three straight at home prior to departing, a solid road trip would have launched them into the thick of the playoff race.  Alas, it wasn’t to be so.

They return to Tampa with nothing more than a couple of new stamps on their passports and some new faces in the lineup.  Three straight losses and zero points have dropped the Lightning to thirteenth in the Eastern Conference.  They are now closer to last (3 points ahead of the Islanders) than playoffs (9 points behind the decimated Penguins).  With forty games gone in the season it’s starting to look like they will be sellers at the deadline.

Looks like someone is scared of Mr. Downie - Getty images Graig Abel

No one on the team or in the organization will admit that they aren’t planning for the playoffs, but it’s time to be realistic. Even if they take advantage of the home-heavy portion of the schedule, there are five teams in front of them that they have to leapfrog.  If they do manage to pull that off then they are sitting in the seventh or eighth seed and staring down a first round matchup with the Rangers, Bruins or Flyers.

Still, the fans on the internet call out for GM Steve Yzerman to trade for a stud goalie, a top-six forward and a top-four defenseman.  It’s not going to happen.  The individual cost of any one of those types of players is going to be astronomical as the season marches to the trade deadline (48 days and counting!).  During his short reign in charge Yzerman has made it quite certain that he isn’t interested in trading the future for the now. 

Blowing up the farm system (i.e. Carter Ashton, Brett Connolly, the Russians or Dustin Tokarski) for a goalie or a rental forward is going to do more damage to this team in the long run than missing the playoffs this year.  The goal of the owner and the front office is to put together a team that is successful for a long run. In that process there will be bumps in the road, this year obviously being one of them. There is no need to sacrifice what has been built because of a temporary detour.

Last year’s deadline deals cost them Ty Wishart, a 23-year old defenseman who might be a career AHL’er , and Brock Beukeboom who may develop eventually but is still years away from making an impact in the NHL.  Neither player was considered an integral part of the Lightning’s future so they were exchanged for pieces that helped solidify a much better product than what is on the ice this year.

Those types of deals won’t make the 2011-2012 Tampa Bay Lightning Stanley Cup contenders.  Trading for Corey Schneider or Tuukka Rask sounds like a good idea at first, but there is no guarantee they are going to perform to the level that they have displayed with their current teams.  If the Semyon Varlamov trade is the starting point for young goaltending talent then it’s a non-starter.  Yzerman is not going to sacrifice a first and second round pick for goalies that have performed well, but haven’t proven anything. Especially since both goalies are Restricted Free Agents next summer and could be heading for decent raises.

Josh Harding has been another name bandied about the internets, but one would wonder how he would perform outside of the Wild’s defensive system.  More likely, if Yzerman is going to address the goaltender situation, he is going to target a veteran backup such as Johan Hedberg or Evgeni Nabokov to ride out this season and then start over in the off-season.  Would that be an upgrade over what they have now?  Probably not and it would be making a move for the sake of making a move, something Yzerman isn’t known to do. So face it Lightning fans – Roloson and Garon are the team going forward.

As for the blue line, it seems that every GM in the league is searching for a top-four defenseman heading into the second half of the season.  That demand is going to drive up the market at well, with sellers looking for young controlled talent or draft pick. Which leads into the next discussion – if the Lightning aren’t buying this season what are they selling?

Yesterday, in an email to a couple of friends I picked the top three members of the team likely to be packing their bags at the deadline.  They were:

Exxxxxxxcllllluuuusssive!

Pavel Kubina – Since the injury to Victor Hedman, Kubina has stepped up and filled the role of the physical blue-liner that everyone wants to add at the deadline.  He still can’t skate his way out of a paper bag, but he provides twenty-plus minutes of defense and a heavy shot from the point.  With the competition for available defensemen expected to be heated he could draw a second round pick or a decent prospect in return.  As an unrestricted free agent at the end of the season, it’s unlikely that the organization would be bringing him back anyway so they might as well get some value for him.

Prety much the only Malone photo ever needed.

Ryan Malone – If only he could stay healthy his value would be much higher.  Malone still has 3 years left on his contract at a $4.5 million cap hit.  However, for a team with cap space his contract isn’t that bad.  In actual salary he is scheduled to make $3 million, $2.5 million and $2.5 million over the life of the contract.  Not bad for someone who plays the physical game in front of the net.  Clearing that cap room could help the Lightning bring in a decent free agent in the off-season. If a club is offering a 2^nd round pick and a mid-level prospect I’m sure Yzerman is listening.

One of these guys can be had at the deadline. And it's not the little one.

Brett Clark – His numbers are down a bit from last season, but for a team needing some depth on the blue line he could be a fit.  Clark playing ten minutes a game is more effective than Clark playing twenty minutes, a role he’s been forced into with the injuries suffered by the Lightning.  For a fourth round pick he could be had.

Other names that could come up in trade talks would be Mathieu Garon, Dominic Moore, Teddy Purcell and Adam Hall.  Teams looking for depth could take a flyer on any of those players and help themselves make a playoff push.

Whatever happens, expect Steve Yzerman to make the best of the situation.  Take for example, the Blair Jones trade. Jones was a role player and was turned into a young defenseman that fits the Guy Boucher model – a smooth-skating puck mover.  I would expect similar moves going down the stretch.  And hey, most of the moves have worked out in the Lightning’s favor so far so why not trust in Yzerman?