Lightning Beat Up on the Blueline

The Tampa Bay Lightning have two games left in their season. As the season grinds to a close they have an outside chance of cracking the 50-win barrier for the first time in franchise history.  They also have a chance at cracking the 50 defensemen used barrier. At one point, around the time that it was announced that Andrej Sustr was hurt, I made a Twitter joke about the Bolts needing to look up Sergei Gusev to see if wanted some ice time. I was 90% joking, 10% serious.

In their last game, a 4-0 victory over the Florida Panthers, rookie Nikita Nesterov logged 21 minutes of ice time. Fellow rookie Luke Witkowski was on the ice for 15 minutes and uber-rookie Slater Koekkoek skated for 16. For a team fighting for the overall number one seed in the Eastern Conference that asking a lot out players with a combined 41 NHL games played. It’s also not sustainable.

Currently Victor Hedman, Jason Garrison, dark horse team-MVP candidate Andrej Sustr and deadline pick-up Brayden Coburn are all currently on the sidelines with various injuries (deadlocked at 2 upper body injuries and 2 lower body injuries). While the forwards have battled through some injuries as well (Alex Killorn is the latest member of the walking wounded) it’s the blue line that has suffered the most this season.

There was a concerted effort in the off-season to buoy the defense corps, mostly based on the fact that last year they had to trade for Michael Kostka in order to have enough defensemen on the roster.. It was a good thing that General Manager Steve Yzerman worked quickly to trade for Garrison and then back the free agent truck up to Anton Stralman’s house. The new imports haven’t necessarily turned the team into a clone of the mid-90s New Jersey Devils teams  and shut other team‘s offenses down (the team’s goals against this season is 2.51 as compared to 2.55 last season), but they have provided a bit of stability in front of the net.

Stralman is one of those defensemen that excels at both the old-fashioned “eye test” but also has the backing of the statistics crowd. He never displays panic when he has the puck and always seems to make the right pass.  When he is on the ice good things tend to happen - good things like more shots by the Lightning as evidenced by his 52.8 CF% (I think I did that right.  I’m still getting used to these advanced stats.)

Heading into the playoffs the Lightning will most likely get at least two of their big guns back.  NHL.com’s Bryan Burns reported that Coburn skated with the team (although in a red no-contact jersey) and Hedman participated fully in the practice. It bodes well that he will join the team for at least one of the last two games while Coburn is shooting for the first playoff game.

Having Hedman back will be instrumental in the team’s success in the post-season. It’s a shame that he hasn’t been able to stay healthy this year as he was putting together a season that would have had him in the Norris Trophy conversation. Over the last two seasons the big Swede has shown the talent that made him a top draft pick in 2009.

Hedman’s return will most likely mean that Koekkoek will find himself back in Syracuse for their playoff run. The former number one draft pick acquitted himself fairly well during his two games with the big club. There were moments where you could see his potential, especially when he got the puck in open ice and was able to use his skating skill to weave past opponents in the neutral zone. There were also times when he looked a little lost on the ice.

In all likelihood he will spend next season in  Syracuse since this is his first season of professional hockey.  The Lightning have six other defensemen already under contract with Sustr and Mark Barberio likely to have their restricted free agent options picked up by the club (and I would expect Sustr to turn his excellent play into a longer term deal). Koekkoek could use a little more experience in the AHL and will probably play the Witkowski role of first call up should injuries occur.

Compared to where the team stood last season (Ben Bishop hurt, Ondrej Palat and Valtteri Filppula banged up) the Lightning aren’t in that bad of shape.  Hedman and Coburn coming back will be a big boost and allow Coach Cooper to control the minutes of his younger players.  With home ice advantage locked up for the first round he’ll also be able to control the match ups.  

At this point should the Lightning even rush their injured players back? While it would be nice to be able to hand an Atlantic Division banner from the rafters, in the long run it doesn’t really matter that much. They have wrapped up home ice advantage in the first round which is the most important thing, but it’s not like they can dictate getting an easier opponent by winning the division. Most likely they will be facing Detroit, but there is also the chance that they will play the Bruins, the Penguins or even the Washington Capitals. Nothing is going to be sorted until the last day, so it would be better to rest the players an extra week then bring them back too soon and risk them re-injuring their upper or lower bodies.

 The good news for Lightning fans is that the team’s philosophy isn’t affected by who they play;  Coach Cooper and his staff believe that the Lightning, when healthy and clicking on all cylinders, can dictate their style of play no matter who is on the other side of the puck.

Hopefully whoever they play, they will play them with a full roster and Mr. Gusev can watch from his couch in Yekaterinburg.

Bad Day In Boston

So how about that Gennady Golovkin?  That’s the big story in sports since the last time I posted right?  Of course not, the big news is Steven Stamkos and his now surgically-repaired right tibia. It’s been three days since Stamkos broke his leg in Boston and I think I am know ready to process it.

I found out about the injury in a truly 21^st century way.  I was at work, stuck behind a computer doing mindless data entry work (the type of work that I got into the hospitality business to avoid) when my cell phone blew up.  Not with phone calls, but with Twitter notifications, texts and e-mails.  I immediately gave myself a 15-minute break (a perk of being a “leader”) and read through my timeline.

First e-mail:  “Don’t jump!” from Scooter

First text: “Stamkos stretchered off the ice. Doesn’t look good.” From Link

First tweet: “Suspected broken tibia for Stamkos.” From various twitter posts and re-tweets

First Justin G. reaction: “F*ckity-f*ck-f*ck”

Oddly enough my first thought wasn’t about how much the Lightning would miss him (that was my third thought). Nor was it how much my fantasy hockey team would miss him (second thought). My first thought was, “Dang. I feel really bad for the kid.”

For the past four seasons Stamkos has been the best goal-scorer in the NHL.  He might not have been the best overall player, but by far the best pure scorer of goals.  We, as Lightning fans, were happy to have him, happy to be able to watch him play 81 times a season.

This season he had turned it up a notch. With 14 goals and 23 points through 17 games he was on pace for his best season ever. Seventy goals was a distinct possibility despite the fact that he didn’t score his first until the fourth game of the season.  The goals he was scoring were from all over the ice.  Deflections, rebounds, snipes from the circle and crazy, toe-drag wristers were all going in for him.

He was more aggressive on the ice, charging into the offensive zone with the puck often going one-on-one or even one-on-two against the defense.  He was shooting the puck instead of deferring and 23% of the time he got the puck on net, the play ended with the goalie digging it out from behind him.  

So I feel bad for him as a player.  At 23-years-old he’s entering into what should be the prime of his career and now the progress on hold.  I’m not worried about what level he is going to come back.  As gruesome as they are at a time, broken bones tend to be easier to overcome than pulled muscles or torn tendons.

If anything, the team is going to have to have the Markham-native slow down in his rehab. I’m sure he’s already spoken with his offseason workout guru, Gary Roberts, and they have a plan for getting him back on the ice. Stamkos’ is one of the hardest working players off the ice and he will be motivated to get back as soon as possible.  Whispers of him making it back in time for the Olympics are already making the rounds, which would put him back in a Lightning uniform towards the end of February, in time for a playoff run.

General Manager (of the Lightning AND Team Canada) Steve Yzerman is already on record stating that he is not going to rush the dynamic forward back.  He doesn’t seem the type of guy to succumb to pressure from outside influences so I doubt the Canadian media will force him to change his mind.  Luckily for that nation they’re quite deep in the center position.

The Lightning, not so much.  However, this is why he stockpiled young offense talent over the last few years.  Both Tyler Johnson and Alex Killorn had more than 20 minutes of ice time in the Lightning’s 2-1 overtime win against Montreal on Tuesday.  A lot will be asked from those two, as well as Valterri Filppula, over the next three months as it is unlikely that Mr. Yzerman will go outside of the organization for help. 

Lightning fans that have been around for more than a decade might remember a dark day (actually it was probably sunny and mild in Tampa) in January 2002 when a rookie defenseman for the Pittsburgh Penguin named Josef Melichar shoved a young Marty St. Louis into the boards and the diminutive forward suffered a broken fibula.  He recovered quite well from that I would say.

So I am not worried about how Stamkos will perform when he returns, whether it is in February or October of 2014. The injury does, however, open him up to a nice “what if” discussion.  It’s a discussion I’ve gotten into with Link in regards to Sidney Crosby. I’ve speculated that Crosby might be the greatest “what if” athlete of the early 21^st century.  As in, what would his career look like if he hadn’t missed so much time over the last few years because of his injuries? Could he have challenged for 600 goals? Could he have been the 2^nd best scorer of all time?  Even if he plays at a hall-of-fame level for the next 10 years there will still be the 60-70 game gap in his career when he was sitting in a dark room pondering his future and not on the ices scoring goals.

While it’s not on the same level, as a broken leg shouldn’t linger like a concussion, there will be this gap in Steven Stamkos’ career.  The questions will be there – could he have won his third Richard trophy? Could he have won his first Art Ross or Hart trophy? And the big one – could he have hit the magical 70 goal mark (I think he had a better shot than Alex Steen).

That’s what I take away from the Stamkos injury (that and nothing good happens in Boston). Also, the outpouring of support from all around the league for him was truly great to see.  If there is any player in the league that is universally liked by fans of all teams it is Stamkos. Probably because the Lightning have no natural rival, thus no fan base that is predisposed to not like players on the team, the injury garnered few if any mean spirited comments on the articles posted about him.  That’s really nice to see.

Stamkos will be back and, hopefully like Obi Wan he’ll be more powerful than we can possible imagine, sooner than we know.  The Lightning will adjust (In Ben Bishop We Trust) and hopefully stay in contention till then.  Sadly, I don’t think the “Then You Feel Shame” squad will be able to survive, but my fantasy worries are low in the grand scheme of things.