Orioles Victory Card #7: Slow start for Trey

Baltimore Orioles Victory Number 7: 6-1 over the Texas Rangers

2019 Topps Gold Trey Mancini

For the second game in a row the Baltimore Orioles found a little bit of offense to support a decent, but short, start from their pitching staff. It took a little while, as Dane Dunning shut them out over the first five innings, but once the Rangers bullpen became involved, the runs started flowing for the O's.

One of the key hits was an eighth inning double by Trey Mancini that broke a 1-1 tie. With DJ Stewart on second and Maikel Franco on first, the veteran outfield ripped a shot into left field that plated Stewart and the O's didn't look back from there.

For Mancini it was only his 10th hit of the season and 3rd double of 2021. He finished the game with a slash line of .172/.234/.379 with 3 home runs and 11 runs batted in. Yes, those numbers are well off his usual numbers, but it's early in the season and a lot of players are scuffling through April. And not all of them missed an entire year due to a battle with colon cancer.

I'm pretty sure that even if his numbers don't improve (they will) he's a sure fire lock to win the American League Comeback Player of the Year, an award that no Oriole has won in it's brief, 17-year existence (now is the point where I'm a little sad that 2005 was sixteen years ago). 

As Andrea SK at Camden Chat pointed out in a larger piece on the overall struggles of the O's offense prior to the Texas series, some of Mancini's peripheral stats aren't that bad.

"If you’re secretly wondering if maybe Mancini isn’t quite “back” from Stage 3 colon cancer, his peripherals—especially hard-hit percentage, barrel percentage, and max exit velocity, all top two-thirds of the league—should put those worries to rest. A better explanation for his struggles might be that he’s seeing fewer pitches in the zone (41.3%, compared, say, to 49.5 in 2018), and chasing more. The good news is: there’s nothing wrong with Boom Boom’s strength."

At this point the best thing for Mancini is to get reps. It's hard enough as it is to hit major league pitching, now imagine trying to do it after missing a year. It'll take awhile for him to get back to recognizing pitches and locations. As Andrea pointed out, when he barrels it up, things are just fine. He's just not at the point where he's getting a lot of solid contact.

According to his Baseball Reference page, his batting average on balls in play (BAbip) is only .189. His career mark of .316 is well above the league average of .298. When Mancini is in the groove he is rocketing line drives, mostly to right-center. He's hitting way more ground balls than he has in his career (60% vs. 51.3% career) and pulling it way more (45% vs. 24% through his five years with the Orioles). With the increase in ground balls he's already hit into a league-leading 5 double plays. At least players are getting on base ahead of him.

I'm pretty confident that as he sees more pitches throughout the season those numbers will move back to normal for him. It's early in the season and with two or three multi-hit games like he had on Saturday his numbers will skyrocket back up. Mancini is never going to be a guy challenging for the batting average title, but I won't be shocked if he ends up around .275/.325/.850 with 20-25 home runs and a ton of doubles by the time September rolls around.

He's getting a day off on Sunday, which with the entire time being off on Monday, gives him a nice little break to clear his head and make sure he doesn't get into too many bad habits by pressing. At some point the entire Orioles offense will come around and I'm pretty sure Trey Mancini will be a key part of it.  

Orioles Victory Card Number 5: All hail our new hero Trey Mancini

Orioles Victory Number 5: 12-4 over the Oakland A's

2017 Topps Update Trey Mancini

The headlines from yesterday's game will all be about Chris Davis and his ongoing streak of futility. Lost in the schadenfreude of his 49 consecutive at bats without a hit was that Trey Mancini went 3-for-3 with 2 runs and 2 runs batted in. His first inning home run, the fifth of the season, ignited the scoring outburst that led to victory.

With the mass exodus of players and Davis' current hardships, Mancini has emerged as the face of the franchise. Despite entering just his third full season in the major leagues he is the veteran leader of the team. A stellar rookie season was followed by a less than successful sophomore year. Was it a product of his knee injury? Or, was it Mancini reverting back to a norm?

Honestly it's hard to say. This is a player that has barely cracked the 300 game mark in the majors. He is 27, which is to say he should be in the middle of his prime playing days. It also puts him in an interesting position. He's not young enough to be considered a prospect, but he isn't exactly a grizzled veteran.

So what do the Orioles do with him? Do they build around him or do they trade him off for more assets. He may be on the older side, but he is also an extremely affordable player who has power. He has 56 home runs in the 318 games hes played in. He also hits a lot of line drives. For a power hitter his average launch angle is 6.4. Usually a power hitter will be in double digits (Aaron Judge is at 11.8 this season). A team needing right-handed power could be interested him especially since he's under team control for another three seasons.

Of course, all of those reasons are why the Orioles should keep him as well. He's their best player and he's affordable (he's earning just $575,000) and isn't blocking anyone in the system. In fact, he's most likely best as a first baseman so he's kind of blocked by Davis. Besides the fans (all 6,585 that showed up on Monday) need someone to rally around during these trying times.

It seems he wants to embrace the role of leader. Speaking to NBC Sports in spring training he said,

"I’m definitely trying to do my best to be a leader on the team and be somebody that the community can look up to as well." 

He can do that by being an example to the younger players on the team, by remaining a professional no matter how trying the season may be. He can also do it by being the best hitter on the team. It's going to be a long season, but at least Trey Mancini gives the fans a reason to keep going to the games.