Cut The Check? Should the Lightning Buy Out Valtteri Filppula

Let’s get two things out of the way before we dive into this post:

1. I liked the Valtteri Filppula deal when it was signed.  Liked, didn’t love.  It was a year too long and a million dollars too much, but the Lightning were signing a creative, veteran playmaker who played responsible hockey and would slot into a top-six position.

2. I don’t like teams buying out contracts.  Done incorrectly it can lead to roster-strangling dead cap space and an endless cycle of overpaying (because, hey you can always buy him out when it goes sideways) for free agents. It might seem like small change, but it can add up.  Buying one player out at $1.7 million and then another at $2 million and then things escalate quickly.  Before you know it you have $4-5 million wrapped up in dead money.

Keeping those two things in mind,  I think the Lightning buying out Valtteri Filppula isn’t the worse thing in the world.  The Finnish forward with the filthy hands is owed $10 million over the next two years.  According to General Fanager if Tampa Bay buys him out before the window ends on June 30th they will save $3.34 million this season and next.  Of course, there are consequences.  For the following two seasons (2018-19 and 2019-20) they will take a $1.67 million cap hit.

Probably not his finest Lightning memory.

Three-and-a-third million dollars is a lot of money to play with on a roster that has a lot of young talent looking for raises.  Wouldn’t it be better to spend some of that money on locking up Nikita Kucherov and his consistent goalscoring as opposed to Filppula and his diminishing flashes of puck-handling brilliance?

I think Filppula has taken a lot of unwarranted flack over the past few seasons, but I’m also aware that he is a 32-year-old forward whose offensive numbers have been declining over the last three seasons. It’s getting harder and harder to justify rolling him out there for 18-20 minutes a game.

In the playoff run this season which forward led the team in ice time?

A: Kucherov with his 11 goals in 17 games?
B. The young Jonathan Drouin and his breakout performance?
C. The steady Tyler Johnson who quietly put up a point a game during the postseason.

The answer to this obviously leading question is - none of the above.

Filppula led all forwards with 20:45 of ice time throughout the playoffs.  Part of that could be explained by the fact that he won 52% of the faceoffs he had.  Coach Cooper threw him out there at the end of games, short-handed and every other time he had an important face-off. Those minutes rack up when you’re doing it game after game.

He did a decent job against the Red Wings and Islanders top lines.

He wasn’t actually that bad in the playoffs (at least until the Pittsburgh series).  He did put up 7 points overall, but against the Penguins his most glaring deficiency was exposed - he just isn’t fast anymore.  Watching him carry the puck into the offensive zone was like watching Jonathan Drouin in slow-motion.  The moves were there, the slick puck-handling was there, it was just at a slower pace.  Even if he was in the zone with numbers, the high-energy Penguins were able to chase him down.

Despite his lack of foot speed it is obvious that he is a player that Coach Cooper trusts.  He is somewhat responsible in the defensive zone and can (at least theoretically) generate offense.  Over at Raw Charge, loserpoints is reviewing the team with a slant towards enhanced stats.  Those numbers place Filppula place just off-center and the writer sums up his season simply saying, “Valtteri Filppula is declining as would be expected of a player his age”.  So…yeah.

Barring injury to other players he is not cracking the top-six next season.  With the Triplets coming back, Alex Killorn, Jonathan Drouin and (hopefully) an extremely rich Steven Stamkos filling out the top of the roster, at best Filppula is going to be looking at another year as a third-line center.

Do the Lightning have someone on the roster that can replace Filppula?  After all, if he’s bought out, someone has to fill that spot. It could be Jonathan Marchessault.  The 25-year-old center is an unrestricted free agent, but could be brought back at a reasonable (under $2 million) salary.  While he doesn’t have the same offensive promise that Filppula brings to the table, he wouldn’t be a total train wreck playing 15 minutes a game.

Also, it might open a spot on the roster for a young player in the organization like Adam Erne or Yanni Goude.  Also, while the free agent market might not be deep, there are third-line forwards available at reasonable prices (P.A. Parenteau maybe?)

Something else to think about that could affect the team a little farther down the road is that Filppula has a no-movement clause in his contract and is signed through the 2017-18 season which means the Lightning would have to protect him in the Las Vegas expansion draft.  Wouldn’t you rather protect Vlad Namestnikov or JT Brown instead of Filppula?

So I just spent a page and a half laying out a case for buying him out.  Should Mr. Yzerman cut him a check and wish him well?  Yes, but after next season.

I think they can get one more serviceable season out of him without handicapping the team out of contention.  Mr. Yzerman should be able to get all of his business done with Stamkos and his restricted free agents and still stay under the cap.  He can then apply the cap savings to Victor Hedman’s extension (let’s start putting the positive vibes out there now) and longer term deals for Johnson and Ondrej Palat.

The Lightning GM has played the buyout game pretty well so far. The only contracts he has bought out have been Vincent Lecavalier and Ryan Malone, both of them were compliance buyouts that didn’t count against the salary cap. He did retain some salary when the Lightning flipped Sam Gagner to the Coyotes for a 6th round pick.  That salary, as well as the cap hit from Vlacav Prospal’s buyout (done under the Brian Lawton regime) fell off this season.

Thirty-one points from a center that can win faceoffs and kill penalties isn’t the worst thing in the world. He has been relatively healthy over his Lightning career (something that was a bit of a worrying point when he signed the deal) and can still contribute.

So don’t trade in those “51” jerseys just yet.

I will miss those platinum locks when he's gone.

Off Season Hockey is The Worst Hockey

A few weeks ago, ok a month ago, the fine folks at Raw Charge asked me a question.  Well not just me, but Lightning bloggers, and since I was briefly a Lightning blogger on a semi-prominent website, Raw Charge still invites me to partake in their Questions of the Week. I guess it’s kind of like sportswriters who wrote about baseball 20 years ago still get to vote for the Hall of Fame even though they haven’t covered the game in a decade.

The questions was: “So looking at what the Lightning have done {in the off-season}, now we ask: Are We Better Yet?”

My response was basically, sure why not? Valtteri Filppula was an ok signing (once the length of the contract was removed as a factor) and number one pick Jonathan Drouin has an excellent chance of making the team and providing some excitement.

Since this is my spot in the mad chaos that is the internet I figured I’d finally get around to expounding on my thoughts. Originally I was going to post it the same week the question went up, but as you might know by now, I’m quite the lazy blogger.  As the season draws ever nearer I figure it’s not a bad time to take a look at the off-season roster makeover and see where they stand, at least on paper.

The Big Loss

This is Photshopped, right? Please say yes.

We barely knew you Benoit Poulet.  I’m kidding, of course. No discussion of off-season moves can begin or end without mention of the compliance buyout of Vincent Lecavalier. The all-time leader in games played, goals scored, shots taken, money donated to local hospitals and Stanley Cup Finals fights with other superstars was given his walking papers  (and $32 million) just before Free Agent Frenzy began in July.

I’m not sure I’ve totally processed it yet.  Until he actually takes the ice in those ugly orange and white sweaters that Philadelphia wears I refuse to believe it actually happened.  He’s totally coming back, you guys.  It’s just a well-worked swerve job by the Lightning.  October 10th, the lights are going to go dark in the Ice Palace, “Thunderstruck” will start playing, Dave Mishkin will scream out, “Dear God! That’s Vinny’s Music!” in his best JR voice and Lecavalier will step on the ice.  IT’S GOING TO HAPPEN!!!!

But, for the sake of this column let’s say Lecavalier is really with Philadelphia and the Lightning have to replace his production. Over the last two season’s Lecavalier provided .79 points per game - that’s not chicken scratch. It was productive enough that other team’s had to worry about the second line, occasionally freeing up young Steven Stamkos to do what he does - score goals.

Quite frankly, there is no one on the roster set to provide that kind production or second line protection. I’m pretty sure we’re seeing the pinnacle of Teddy Purchell’s scoring ability (which isn’t bad) and Nate Thompson isn’t going to blossom into a 25 goal scorer overnight. Thus General Manager Steve Yzerman waded into the Free Agency Frenzy looking for a second line center and signed….

The Big Pickup

Valterri does "smoldering" well.

…Valterri Filppula* to a five-year $25 million contract, instantly burning up some of that precious cap space Lecavalier’s buyout had provided.  I have nothing against Filppula, and I apologize for spending the last seven years thinking his name was “Valarie Fippula”, but like or not, no matter how to the contrary coaches and players say it, he’s going to have to fill Lecavalier’s shoes.

Will he be able to do it?  Maybe-ish.  Health will be a big factor.  If 2011-12 was the last season he played fully healthy then things are looking rosy.  His .81 points per game are right in line with what Vincent was providing and by all reports, Filppula might be a bit more responsible defensively. I love Vinny as much as a guy can love a total stranger who he has only seen on TV, but asking Lecavalier to play defense is like asking Secretariat to pull a carriage of tourists down Michigan Avenue.

According to the Finnish forward a knee injury didn’t let him prepare in the off-season as well he would have liked before the lockout shortened 2012-13 season and led to his drop off in production.  He feels that he should be in better shape this season despite the ankle injury he suffered in game 7 of the Western Conference finals.  In other words, nothing to see here folks.  Keep whistling past the graveyard.

Some folks out in Lightning-land are wondering why the former Detroit was signed in the first place. After all, the Harvard Man, Alex Killorn looked pretty solid in his debut season posting 19 points in 38 games for the Lightning.  Why not give him or Tyler Johnson the reigns and let them run with it? Well, because it’s kind of a big role on the team and Mr. Yzerman might not be willing to bet the season (and his job) on a player that was cramming for finals less than two years ago.  If the Lightning go into the season with Killorn as their number two center and he fails Alexander Daigle-style (aka spectacularly) then it is harder to find a replacement. With Filppula penciled in as the starter and Killorn waiting in the wings (probably quite literally) Mr. Yzerman has given himself an out. Should his free agent fail, then Killorn can step right in.

Mr .Yzerman wasn’t done there, he also signed ummm…..Geoff Walker.  Hmm…I guess he was done.  Which, I actually took as a good sign.  Or at least a sign that the organization’s depth has improved over the last three years because he did re-sign most of their restricted free agents and J.T. Brown, Mark Barberio, and Keith Aulie will probably all see significant time with club this season (Godspeed Evan Oberg, we’ll always have this to remember you by).

The General Manager’s lack of attention towards the defense has me a little nervous, since the returning group didn’t exactly light the world on fire last season.  However, with such a young core, they can only get better with experience, right?

Sitting with the third pick in the draft Mr. Yzerman did have an excellent shot at picking up another exciting young defenseman in Seth Jones after Colorado and Florida passed on the highly rated blue liner. However, he dashed aside visions of a Victor Hedman/ Seth Jones pairing terrorizing opponents for the opportunity to have goaltenders shake in fear at the sight of Steven Stamkos locked and loaded waiting for the puck from….

The Big Draft

Love that he's wearing a shirt and tie under the sweater, but has his gloves on. He's ready to play, or go to a job interview.

…Jonathan Drouin.  Mr. Yzerman might just be thinking, “if you can’t stop ‘em, outscore ‘em”. What is scary is that Drouin might actually make Stamkos better.  Noted hockey expert Bob McKenzie has compared him to Patrick Kane and states that the newest Bolt “can process the game faster than anybody else {in the draft}.“ It’s that extra “hockey sense” to see plays develop before they actually happen and put the puck where it needs to be to confound the other team.

Go to you tube and search Jonathan Drouin and you will be happy if you’re a Lightning fan.  Not to put too much pressure on him, but he could really be the best pure playmaker the Lightning have ever had in their history.  Their draft history/prospect history has tended to focus on big scoring forwards whose talents lie in putting the puck in the net, not setting up their teammates.

Of course, if you’ve been privileged to follow my live tweets during a game (@TorchRamrod) you know that one of things that drive me batty is the forward’s desire to score pretty goals instead of just putting the puck at the net (aka The One More Pass Syndrome). The biggest victims of this disease were Lecavalier and Marty St. Louis. I’m all for being a giver on the ice, but sometimes you want someone that is a bit more selfish. Gimmie the GOALS!

There is a danger that Drouin, as an electric playmaker, might fall into that habit especially if he defers to his elders on the ice.  It’s hard to project how effective he’ll be this season, especially with the Lightning’s history of not rushing their prospects.  He will have to earn his spot on the roster, but if he does he will replace some of the offense lost with Lecavalier.

Somewhat lost in the hype of the Drouin pick is that the Lightning picked up a pretty good prospect with their second round choice of Adam Erne. Where Drouin gets the “electric,” “flashy,” “sizzling” superlatives, Erne is described as “gutty,” “hardworking” and “big-bodied”.  He is more in the line of the big power forward mold prospect (think Brett Connolly). I would think he spends next season back in juniors, but after that he should provide some size to the young crop of talent that makes up the Lightning prospects.

So where does that leave the 2013-14 Tampa Bay Lightning?  In the end I still think they’re a better team. Simply because they were a better team then they preformed last season AND the additions they made make them even better.   Losing Lecavalier hurts, it really, really hurts. But it’s not a back breaking loss.  Let’s face it, injuries are starting to catch up to him and counting on him for a full season is no longer a given. The financial flexibility helps this season and will really help next season when the cap should go up.

While the Lightning might be better on the ice, planning your next summer vacation based on them making the playoffs might be a bit premature. The main problem is the fact that their competition ratcheted up several notches due to realignment. Contending with Boston, Montreal and even Toronto is going to be a lot harder than contending with Carolina and Winnipeg.

In the end, any talk of success echoes the discussions of the previous two seasons. Those discussions revolved around goaltending.  If Ben Bishop and Anders Lindback can’t keep the puck out of the net, it doesn’t matter what Filppula or Drouin do on the ice. That’s why the lack of improving the defense, other than a full season of Radko Gudas, has Lightning fans a little skittish about improvement.

With about two months to go before the actual drop of a meaningful puck, there is a chance that Mr. Yzerman makes a few last minute moves (cough, cough blueline depth), but I think the feeling on Channelside drive is that this is the team they are going to live and die with.

* Yes I want to make Filppula’s nickname “The Big Pickup”. It won’t happen, but that doesn't mean  I can’t dream.