Seventeen Things Better Than The Ravens Loss

Superman Smith breaks the goaline. Photo by David Butler II, US Presswire

So far 2012 isn’t treating my favorite teams any better than 2011.  Last year the Tampa Bay Lightning were one goal away from advancing to the Stanley Cup Finals. Liverpool was horrendous, sacked their coach and sold off their most prolific scorer while barely qualifying for the Europa League (European soccer’s version of the NIT). Now, as the opening month of 2012 draws to a close I have to watch a field goal sail wide of its intended target costing the Ravens a shot at the Super Bowl.

Len Bias Cocaine Surplus

Mon 23 Jan 2012 2:32 AM

What Went Wrong On Billy Cundiff’s Missed Kick?

I'm going to say the part where it didn't go through those yellow things

(Edit comment)

The above comment was posted on a deadspin article that broke down Billy Cundiff’s failed attempt to tie the game against the Patriots on Sunday.  It literally made me laugh out loud. Literally. I guess that means the healing process is well under way.  The stages as the happened:

1.       Joy – the football in Lee Evans hands.

2.       Surprise- The ball falling out of Evans hands.

3.       Dealmaking – Chip shot field goal ties the game, 50/50 chance in overtime.

4.       Shock – Football sails wide, CBS cuts to Terrell Suggs saying “Oh My God”.  (Seriously, that was an awesome piece of camera work.  Kudos.)

Totally stole this from Kissing Suzy Kolber

5.       Morose Mother F*cker – Walked back to the apartment in the chilly Chicago rain. If I had my iPod, Bill Withers would havebeen playing (probably the BB King version)

6.       ALCOHOL! – Good friend Hamel comes through with tickets to see Buddy Guy play at his club downtown.  Blues and beers perfect for getting over the loss. Legends is a bit touristy (I prefer Kingston Mines), but to watch a master craftsman tear up a stage at 75-years old is awesome. I’ll be lucky to get out of bed when I’m that age.

7.       Sleep – Nothing better than a good 7 hours of sack time.

8.       Laughter – Sure the jokes are at the Ravens expense, but they’re still funny.

9.       Writing – I guess that’s part of the reason why I write.  Helps get the sad out.

So that’s where I’m at right now.  By the way, in regards to point number two, I don’t think Lee Evans caught the ball.  It should have been reviewed, but I don’t think that would have changed the outcome.  It just didn’t seem like a catch, but at the same time it wasn’t a drop.  It was a great defensive play by Sterling Moore.  Moving on (as I’m sure Lee Evans will be in the off-season).

I could remember this season for the disappointment of being so close to the Super Bowl, but instead I think I’d rather remember the good things:

1.       The Week One curbstomping of the Steelers.

2.       The first quarter of the Rams game when Flacco to Smith was unleashed and millions of fantasy footballers rushed to their computers to pick Torrey Smith up on waivers.

3.       The second half comeback against the Cardinals

4.       Flacco to Smith to beat the Steelers in Week Nine.

5.       Being part of the 71,000 strong cheering for the Ravens on Thanksgiving.

6.       The Week 17 win in Cincinnati to clinch a home field playoff game.

7.       The Bernie Pollard to Jimmy Smith interception against Brady.

8.       Flacco to Dennis Pitta all season long made losing Todd Heap a little easier to take.

9.       The absurdity of “Ball So Hard University” and Joe Flacco skateboarding.

10.   Flacco’s mustache.

11.   The maturation of Lardarius Webb.

12.   Learning to spell “Lardarius”.

13.   Ray Lewis, a step slower, but still one of the best.

14.   My cousin’s slightly insane Ravens-related Facebook posting.

15.   My niece’s “Go Way-Bins” cheers.

16.   Did I mention the Steelers beat down?

17.   John Harbaugh with a cut in his chin quotingTeddy Roosevelt.

So I guess my point is that there was a lot of good in the 2011-12 Ravens season. I’ll be trying to ignore the NFL for the next two weeks, mainly because I don’t need to hear about the Patriots wanting revenge for the next fourteen days.  Besides the Lightning are fighting for their playoff lives, and that’s way more interesting than Skip Bayliss yelling at a TV camera.

I will throw one more football post up a couple of days before the Super Bowl.  After all, the gamblers need to know who to bet on, right?  Heck, maybe Link and I will even break down some of the prop bets for you as well. Till then, it’ll be more hockey and sports cards, yea! 

Back To Football - and Introducing the Joe Flacco Drinking Game

OK.  So we didn’t exactly light up the scoreboard with our picks last week.  For the record I went 1-3 straight up and 1-3 against the spread (thanks Tebow!).  Link went 1-3 straight up, but 2-2 against the spread as he correctly predicted New Orleans to cover the 6.5.

This week we’re going to continue to give you bad gambling advice while breaking down the second round games.  The lightweights are gone, the big boys are rested and it’s time to see if Tebow-mania is going to roll on.

First off, let me offer my condolences to Link’s Steelers, like a blind, three-legged dog with failing kidneys they were finally put out of their misery. I imagine a lot of changes are coming for that team this offseason.

When was the last time all four home teams won AND covered their spread? For me the biggest surprise of the week was the Houston blowout of Cincinnati.  I didn't think a TJ Yates-led team would dominate in a playoff game. Good for them! Will he pull off a shocker in Baltimore this week? Let’s find out!

Saturday 4.30 EST New Orleans (-3.5) at San Francisco

 If I’m reading the NFL stats right we have the number one passing offense going up against the 17^th best pass defense in the league. Drew Brees had a ho-hum 466 yard/ 3 TD performance against the Lions last week. He’s now thrown 28 touchdowns against only 3 picks in the 7 weeks since the bye week. That’s crazy good. However, the 49er’s did pick off 23 passes this season and Brees can throw ‘em in bunches when he’s harassed.

Some folks out there are making a lot of the fact that the Saints are an indoor team that might struggle outdoors.  Two of their three losses were outdoors (Green Bay and Tampa), but they also came early in the season before their offense really started clicking. The weather is expected to be decent so I don’t think it’ll be that big of an effect in the game.  I doubt the Saints will be able to run the ball much, but should be able to hit the short passes and bombs to put enough points on the board.

 As for the 49er’s on offense…..well it is Alex Smith.  He’s not exciting, but he doesn’t turn the ball over either, only 5 INTs on the season.  They rushed for about 127 yards a game so I’m guessing they are a ball control, let the defense win the game type of team.  I’m not going to lie, I haven’t seen too much of them this year. Not sure that gets it done against a team with the firepower of the Saints.

I’m going:

Saints 27, 49’ers 17


Now onto the marquee matchup for the day:

Denver at New England (-13.5)

There’s no way Denver wins this game, right?  Despite being heavy underdogs last week against Pittsburgh there were things that you could look at as being in the Broncos favor, namely a depleted and banged up Steelers team and home field advantage.  This week they are looking at a rested New England squad that has the AFC’s best offense and what should be a rowdy (i.e. well-lubricated) crowd.

There is no way the Patriots make the same mistake the Steelers did in letting Tim Tebow drop back and huck the ball down the field.  Link and I spoke earlier this week about that being the easiest throw a quarterback can make. I can see New England keeping their safeties back and forcing Tebow to complete 8-15 yard passes that require some sort of accuracy, something that he has trouble with. 

If Denver can run the ball, great let them run all day long.  Make them grind out 10 minute drives because you know Tom Brady can march down the field and score in 3 minutes.  As we saw when they met earlier this season Denver can’t keep up with them in a shoot-out. 

Patriots 28, Denver 13

On to Sunday

Houston at Baltimore (-7.5)

It seems the pundits are chalking this one up to a relatively easy Ravens victory.  I’m not so sure.  Granted, I think they win, but I have a feeling it will be an ugly, grinding 15-14 kind of game.  Instead of breaking it down I will give you, instead, the Joe Flacco drinking game:

Drink:

Every time Flacco checks down to Ray Rice
Every time Flacco overthrows Rice by 5 feet on a swing out pass
Flacco overthows Torrey Smith by inches on a 50 yard bomb
Dennis Pitta has to leap 3 feet in the air to haul in a 3^rd and 8 reception

Shot: 

Flacco hits Smith on a 50 yard bomb for a touchdown
You realize Flacco hasn’t completed a pass to a wide receiver in a quarter and a half
Flacco scrambles like a new-born calf on roller skates for a first down
Flacco takes a delay of game penalty
Flacco throw a deep pass into the end zone to draw a pass interference penalty…and gets the call
Flacco completes 8 passes in a row to raise his completion percentage to 50% on the day

I kid, I kid.  I like Joe Flacco and think he’s a better quarterback than critics give him credit for.  I look for Ray Rice to have a typical productive day and the defense feasts on a couple of T.J. Yates turnovers.

Bonus Chug:

Ed Reed attempts a lateral after picking a pass off.

Baltimore 17, Houston 13

The final game of the weekend and a pretty good matchup

New York at Green Bay (-8.5)

The key matchup is going to be the Giants pass rush against a banged up Green Bay offensive line.  If they can get penetration (heh, heh penetration) and fluster Aaron Rodgers they can make it a long day for Mr. Discount Double Check.  Like Brady in New England, Rodgers has plenty of options to throw it to, but it’ll be hard to hit Jordy Nelson when he’s laying on his backside.

On the other side Green Bay gives up a ton of yardage(411 per game) but also creates turnovers (31 picks and 7 recovered fumbles). So I wouldn’t be surprised to see Eli throw for 350 yards but also turn the ball over 4 times. 

By the way, nice move by the Yankees picking up Michael Pineda.  Now their pitching staff is almost as good as the Rays.

Packers 27, Giants 21

Due to a project at work (that required multiple cover letters for TPS reports) Link wasn't able to get to his side of the discourse.  He did however provide his picks)

New Orleans -3.5
New England -13.5
Houston +7.5
Giants +8.5

A Season in Review - How I did in Predicting the Ravens

That's a Super Bowl Level Mustache - photo from Baltimore Sun

Alright, it looks like we might be a little football heavy on this here weblog for the next couple of weeks.  I don’t write about it much because, quite frankly, it’s the one sport I enjoy more as a casual observer then as a writer/analyzer.  I’m not quite at the point of drinking the purple kool-aid (just the jungle juice) and donning purple zubazs yet, but of all the teams I follow I am most unabashedly a fan first.

That being said, I did try to take an analytical look at theRavens schedule before the season to try and predict how they would finish.  My prediction was close, 10-6, vs. their actual record of 12-4. I thought it would be spot on, after all MGM had them pegged as a 10 win team as well.  However, the game-by-game guessing was wildly inaccurate; to the point of my dad taking the time to email me and make fun of me.  He’s also threatened to sign up as a commenter just so he can make fun of me in public.  Thanks for reading, Pops!  Enjoy Hawaii!

As is my policy, anytime I make predictions I follow up on them to see how I did.  Unlike the talking heads on TV I accept accountability for my prognostications and will suffer the consequences when I do poorly (as is often the case).  So here we go:

 Week  1 vs. Pittsburgh

My prediction – Ravens Could Lose

Reason – “I think Pittsburgh is a better team than Baltimore this year”

Outcome – Yeah, missed the boat on this one. The Ravens forced 7 turnovers and cruised to a 35-7 victory that I didn’t get to see thanks to a Direct TV problem at the bar.

Prediction record – 0-1

Week 2 at Tennessee

My prediction – Ravens Should Win

Reason – “Ravens should be able to shut down Chris Johnson and put the game in Matt Hasslebeck’s hands.”

Outcome – They shut Johnson down holding him to only 53 yards rushing, but Hasselbeck torched them for 358 yards and Rod Bironas kicked 4 field goals to lead the Titans to a 26-13 victory that I also didn’t see because the folks at Goose Island in Wrigleyville kept switching the game off.

Prediction record – 0-2

Week 3 at St. Louis

My prediction – Games We Don’t Know What Will Happen

Reason – “Stephen Jackson is a legitimate offensive threat and their defense should be better than people think”

Outcome – The coming out party for rookie Torrey Smith. The wide receiver has 3 touchdown receptions in the first quarter and the Ravens rolled to a franchise record 553 yards of offense.  I’m giving myself a win here since I thought they would win 2 of the 3 mystery games.

Prediction record 1-2

Week 4 vs. New York Jets

My Prediction – Ravens Could Lose

Reason – “There is no way Mark Sanchez has a big game against Baltimore, but I think bad penalties and a lack of discipline will be the difference as the Jets win 10-9”

Outcome – The defense scores 3 times and leads the team to a 34-17 victory. Hey at least I knew that Sanchez would struggle.

Prediction record - 1-3 

Bye Week – Push! 

Week 6 vs. Houston

My Prediction – Games We Don’t Know What Will Happen

Reason – “If Arian Foster and Andre Johnson stay healthy the middle of October could be a shoot-out.”

Outcome – Johnson was hurt and the Ravens outplayed the Texans down the stretch for a 29-14 victory. Joe Flacco threw for over 300 yards and Billy Cundiff kicked five field goals.

Prediction record – 2-3

Week 7 at Jacksonville

My Prediction – Ravens Should Win

Reason – “The one game on the schedule that the Ravens should be double digits and actually cover”

Outcome – I created a new gambling rule – never bet on the Ravens when they’re favored by more than 10 points.  Jacksonville took away Ray Rice as a check down option for Flacco and stymied the Ravens offense.  The Jaguars had their highlight for the season as they won in primetime 12-7.

Prediction record – 2-4

Week 8 vs. Arizona

My Prediction – Ravens Should Win

Reason – “If the Ravens get pressure on him (Kevin Kolb) they should be able to force mistakes.”

Outcome – The Ravens had to come back from 21 points down in the second half to win, but they did it. This is the game where they decided to add the “throw it deep in the endzone and hope for a flag” play to the playbook. It actually worked twice and led to two easy Ray Rice touchdowns. Flacco threw the ball a career-high 51 times in the 30-27 win.

Prediction record – 3-4

Week 9 at Pittsburgh

My Prediction – Ravens Could Lose

Reason – “The pressure will be on Flacco and so far in his career pressure games haven’t been his forte.”

Outcome – For once it was the Ravens winning in the last minute as Joe hit Torrey Smith for a 26-yard touchdown to win the game 23-20 with eight seconds left on the clock. I had labeled it a must win game if the Ravens wanted to win the AFC North and in the end it proved to be the difference as the two teams finished the season with identical records but the Ravens with the tie-breaker edge.

Prediction record – 3-5

Week 10 at Seattle

My Prediction – Ravens Should Win

Reason – “Tavaris Jackson”

Outcome – Marshawn Lynch (who I had cut from my fantasy team due to lack of production) had a combined 167 yards of offense and the Ravens turned the ball over 3 times in the 22-17 loss.

Prediction record – 3-6

Week 11 vs. Cincinnati

My Prediction – Ravens Should Win

Reason – “The Ravens should be able to shut down the running game and feast on the rookie quarterback (Andy Dalton).”

Outcome – Baltimore held off a fourth quarter comeback by the feisty Bengals to cling to a 31-24 win.  Torrey Smith was a factor again with 165 yards receiving while the defense forced 3 second-half turnovers by Dalton (2 picks and a fumble).

Prediction Record – 4-6

Week 12 vs. San Francisco

My Prediction – Ravens Should Win

Reason – No real reason given, just implied the 49’s would be bad.

Outcome- I was at this game!  Yea!  Oh, and the Ravens won 16-6 by dominating on defense and doing just enough on offense to win.  Who cares? I was there!

Prediction Record – 5-6

Week 13 at Cleveland

My Prediction – Ravens Should Win

Reason – “The Ravens won’t light up the scoreboard, but should score enough to win.”

Outcome – Ray Rice runs for over 200 yards and the Ravens coast to a 24-10 victory. Lardarius Webb runs a punt back for Baltimore as well, a bright spot in the season for the much maligned special teams unit.

Prediction record – 6-6

Ed Dixon uses the Force to make a catch - AP/Nick Wass

Week 14 vs. Indianapolis

My Prediction – Games We Don’t Know What Will Happen

Reason – “Much like Roethisberger he (Peyton Manning) has the Ravens number in head-to-head matchups.”

Outcome – To my credit, when I made this prediction there was still talk of Manning playing at the end of the season.   Curtis Painter was no match for the Ravens defense and Ray Rice ran for over 100 yards in the 24-10 victory. I’ll take the loss on this one since I didn’t have the stones to make a real prediction.

Prediction record – 6-7

Week 15 at San Diego

My Prediction – Ravens Could Lose

Reason – “From Phil Rivers ability to rack up passing yardage to the Ravens having to go to the west coast, it all adds up to a loss.”

Outcome:  I pretty much nailed this one.  The Chargers picked on rookie Jimmy Smith and racked up 270 passing yards to take the 34-14 win.  The Ravens weren’t able to get any pressure on Rivers as the Chargers looked way too comfortable in winning the game.

Prediction record – 7-7

Week 16 vs. Cleveland

My Prediction – Ravens Should Win

Reason – “The air is cold, the stockings are hung and the Browns still suck.”

Outcome – Baltimore built a 17-0 halftime lead and held on to a 20-14 win. They sealed the win by drawing the Browns off-sides on a 4^th-and-2 play with two minutes to go in the game.  It wasn’t a pretty game, but it locked up Baltimore’s first undefeated season at home.

Prediction Record – 8-7

Ray Rice don't need no help! photo from AP

Week 17 at Cincinnati

My Prediction – Ravens Should Win

Reason – “The Bengals will be playing for Andrew Luck and not much else.”

Outcome – Ray Rice had an early 70-yard touchdown run and the Ravens turned a late fumble by Cincinnati into another Rice touchdown to produce a 24-16 win.  The Bengals did have a chance of making the playoffs had they won, so I was a little off on the Luck prediction. 

Prediction Record – 9-7

There ya go.  An extremely uneven season for the Ravens that led to an AFC North title, a first round bye and the first home playoff games since the 2006 season (in which they were also the2nd seed). Are they built for a long playoff run?  That is the million dollar question right now.  If they win their game next week then chances are they would have to go on the road to face the Patriots, and I’m not sure Flacco has the arm to win that shoot-out. 

But more on the playoffs as the days roll on.

The Good, The Bad, The Ravens

I guess it’s time to say something. I’ve been pondering what to write about them for a couple of weeks now. Even when I was in Hawaii I was thinking about them, well in a distant “I wonder what they’re up to right now while I sip this Mai Tai” kind of way. Baseball is over, hockey is settling into it’s regular season and despite Nike’s claim, basketball is still stopped. So it’s time. Time to say something about the Baltimore Ravens.

I could point out the good. They have a gaudy 5-2 record and the largest point differential in the league at 75 ( 185 points scored vs. 110 points allowed). They’ve knocked off the Steelers and the Jets. Their quarterback has more wins than anyone else since 2008. They rolled off a 21 point, second-half comeback on Sunday.

Or I could point out the bad. They are 5-2, but four other teams in the AFC have two losses as well. That makes for quite a crowd come playoff time. Those big wins against the Steelers and Jets are off-set by losses to the Titans and Jaguars. Flacco may win games but he also spent 6 straight quarters missing receivers like he was a Dr. Pepper “Million Dollar Throw” contestant. The fact that they needed to come back from 21 down at home against the Cardinals is pathetic in itself.

Normally, I don’t condone booing a home team. However, if there was ever a team that deserved some hometown derision it was the squad that walked into the locker rooms at halftime on Sunday. They had spent a game and a half looking as inept as any of the “Suck for Luck” contenders this season. It wasn’t Joe Flacco’s fault, or Cam Cameron’s fault, or the offensive line’s fault, or Edgar, Allen and Poe’s fault. It was everyone’s fault.

In my preseason preview I pegged them as a 10-6 team. I was trying to be pessimistic, with their schedule I could have been talked into them as a 14-2 or 13-3 team. Heck, even now 12-4 isn’t out of the question. Unfortunately neither is 8-8. I’ve never watched a team that is as unpredictable as this year’s Raven’s squad.

After dropping a bomb in Jacksonville, conventional internet wisdom had them taking out their frustration on a hapless Cardinals team. Instead, the Ravens spent the first half fumbling around the field incoherently. Despite the fact that they turned it around in the second half I have no confidence in them winning going into their rivalry week with Pittsburgh. Of course, that means they’ll beat the Steelers by 25.

Highlighting their inconsistency brilliantly is their quarterback Joe Flacco. Through 7 games he’s been as unpredictable as spring weather in Baltimore. Twice he’s tossed three touchdowns in a game, and three times he’s thrown for zero scores. He’s completed less than half of his passes in 2 games, he’s also completed more than sixty percent of his passes in two games. He threw for 137 yards in the Jacksonville game, in the games before and after he threw for more than 300 in each. So good luck figuring out what he’s going to do on a week-to-week basis.

Whether a team struggles or succeeds, an inordinate amount of the focus is on the quarterback. In Baltimore that goes even more so for Joe Flacco. The Charm City is quietly a cruel place to play for quarterbacks. Even though he hasn’t thrown a pass in 40 years Johnny Unitas looms large in the town. Every quarterback that laces them up for the Ravens has been compared to him (normally along the lines of “He’s no Jaaawwwwwnnnhheee U!”.

When a team struggles for consistency from week to week, the struggles are usually caused by the offensive line. The Ravens, as would any NFL team, would love to run the ball 25-30 times a game and succeed. The problem is, with their patched together line, they aren’t able to get enough push to make that successful. Nor are they able to keep away the blitzing hordes on third down situations.
Flacco has a lot of strengths as a quarterback, reading through his progressions is not one of them.

He tends to look for his primary, glance at a secondary receiver and if both options are covered immediately look for his safety blanket - the check down to Ray Rice. Unfortunately, as of late his line hasn’t even given him time to make those reads. Moving to a shotgun offense seemed to give him that extra second or two to find his open receivers and regain his confidence. It will be interesting to see if that becomes more of an option in the season as it progresses.

The Ravens need to find a way to make him feel comfortable in the offense. He is no longer a rookie learning the game, rather he is the quarterback that he is destined to be. If the organization believes that he is the long term answer it is time to develop the game plan around his strengths, not force him to change to accommodate their plays.

Settling down their quarterback will help steady the team. The defense is proving to be the best the organization has had since the Super Bowl year. Even the secondary, which I had doubts about, has proven to be good enough to shut most teams down. With the exception of the pass happy Patriots, the Ravens actually match up pretty well to the other teams that look to be playoff bound this season.

With just over half of their season remaining, and a stretch of winnable games looming after Pittsburgh, the Ravens need to find the consistency that has been lacking so far in order to remain with those front runners. It’s hard to imagine any 5-2 team facing must win games, but should they fall to the Steelers next week, Baltimore could face that exact possibility.