My 3 Cents On Ray Rice and the NFL

“We are in an era in which being well-rounded is perhaps more important than ever before, and nobody in the NFL is more versatile and efficient than Baltimore’s starting running back. I believe that Ray Rice will be recognized as the clear-cut best running back in football by the end of the season, primarily because he is already the best running back in football.”

Bill Barnwell wrote those words just over two years ago. Since we have the advantage of perfect hindsight, we can chuckle at our how wildly things have changed since then. One of the curses of recording your thoughts and opinions for a living is that they are always there to haunt you, but when Barnwell wrote this post it wasn’t an outrageous claim.

Adrian Peterson was rehabbing a torn knee (little did we know about his superhuman ability to recover from career-ending injuries) and Rice was coming off of a year when he accumulated over 2,000 yards from scrimmage for the second time in four seasons. He had the ability to catch the ball out of the backfield and a quarterback who was more than willing to dump passes off . And he was only 25 years old.

Fast forward to present day and Rice is little more than a pariah in the league. Instead of being remembered for  “4th and Forever” his name is synonymous with something much, much more negative. No one in this story comes off well. Rice for his actions, the NFL and the Ravens for their reactions all share blame in this mess.

With great reason, of course.  Ray Rice deserved to be suspended, not for two games, but for at least six. Did he deserve to be run out of football indefinitely?  No.  Josh Brent killed a teammate in an alcohol-related car crash and was suspended from the league for 10 games. Donte Stallworth pled guilty to DUI-manslaughter and was suspended for one season. Officially, although he is responsible for half of the murders in the state of Florida, Aaron Hernandez is not suspended from the NFL.  Any team wanting to sign the former Patriot would have to make quite a compelling case to get approval from Roger Goddell.

So why did the hammer come down on Rice, a player with no legal trouble in the past and a rather extensive history of community service?  I would venture that we are seeing the power of video.  The only difference between Rice’s case and all of the other domestic violence cases is that his actions are readily available for all to see.

There was never any doubt at what had happened. It was always accepted that Ray Rice knocked out his fiancée in an elevator and then dragged her unconscious body out. Nothing changed once the full video came out. However, before the video - two games, after the video - indefinite suspension.

It doesn’t matter if Goddell or his lackeys saw the video of the actual punch. They are reasonably intelligent men (at least we think they are). I’m pretty sure that they figured out what happened even before meeting with Rice and his now-wife. It doesn’t even matter if Ray Rice lied to them about the exact events that happened in the elevator.  He admitted he hit her, screw the build up to what led to the left hook. Jay-Z proved that you can be in an elevator with a violent female and not resort to knocking her out.

There is no doubt that the NFL first erred in going to light on Rice’s suspension. If they had come down with an 6 or 8 game suspension, much of the trouble that they are going through right now would have been avoided. If that had been the official suspension, there is a good chance that Ray Rice would still be a member of the Ravens, and Goddell wouldn’t be worrying about his future employment and concussions would be back to being the number one reason to feel guilty about being a fan of the NFL.

They didn’t help their situation by allowing Greg Hardy to play in week one. The same Greg Hardy who was found guilty of two counts of domestic violence this summer.  Hardy is currently appealing the ruling (something Rice isn’t doing) and has been moved to the NFL exempt list (a kind of purgatory where a player isn’t allowed to play, but is still able to cash his paycheck) while the team does its “due diligence” on the matter.

If there was no video of Rice hitting his domestic partner would he be in the same boat as Hardy?  We are a visual culture. Reading or hearing about events is never going to impact us like seeing them. For whatever reason actually seeing something leaves such little doubt. It’s just human nature.  It goes back to the Bible (if you’re one for religion). Did Thomas believe the other disciples that Jesus had popped out of the cave after a couple of days? Nope, he had to see him for himself, not only that, he had to see the nail wounds as well before he would believe their story. Pictures or get the f*ck out, I guess.


It’s a sad fact that domestic violence doesn’t occur only among football players. Everyday someone is getting arrested for incidents similar to what the Rices went through. And the truth is, most of the convicted receive similar punishments. If a plumber hits his wife during an argument, chances are he doesn’t lose his job.

It’s easy to blame the violence on the “culture of the NFL” but it happens in all sports, in all walks of life. Charlie Sheen, Mel Gibson, Chris Brown and Sean Penn have all seen their names in the paper because of domestic violence issues and as far as I know none of them have played a down of football.

I asked a Human Resource professional, “If an employee [of your company] is convicted of a crime..say domestic violence…does that give you the grounds to terminate them?”

Their response, “Not necessarily….If {they} are charged - not work - related. I can’t do anything. However, time you will serve or if the charge directly relates to your job then we can part ways as we can’t keep your job while you are in jail or put the {business} in jeopardy”

They did follow up with an important side note - “We are not a company that uses our associates as the face of the company.”


There in lies the crux of the problem for the Ravens and the NFL.  Ray Rice is considered a “face” of the NFL. He is in their advertisements, their video games, their endorsed movies (a photo of Ray Rice appears during the end credits of “Draft Day”) so for him to be embroiled in a high-profile does put the NFL in jeopardy.

Any team that employs Ray Rice (and I think someone will sign him next year) is going to take a hell of a chance. Not only in incurring the wrath of the public, but also in signing a 28-year-old running back with declining numbers.

It‘s interesting that an organization that has stood behind players with nefarious actions in the past would be so quick to cut their number one running back. Could the Ravens be callously using this an opportunity to jettison a large financial commitment? Sure they take a huge cap hit next season, but they do so without any fan backlash at all.

Since Barnwell wrote his article, not only has Rice not been the best running back in the league, he’s barely been average. While he should be in the prime of his career, several seasons to go before that magic age of 32 when running backs fall off the table, he has racked up a tremendous amount of use in the NFL. While being a multi-use back is great for offenses and fantasy football (PPR for life!) all of those extra tackles do add a lot of wear and tear to an athlete.

The initial reaction by the league and the Minnesota Vikings to Adrian Peterson’s child disciplining techniques shows that the league is amazingly tone deaf when it comes to these types of issues. Here you are in the middle of getting raked over the coals for a player committing violence upon a member of their family and a similar situation arises and the response is…. “Eh, maybe we’ll suspend him.”

Since he hasn’t been tried in court yet, but has admitted to the discipline placing him on the exempt list actually makes since (sure it took them awhile to get there, but at least they got it right).  And for the record the “We do things different in the South” defense is a load of horse shit. As is the “That’s the way I was raised” defense. If my dad beat the shit out of me growing up (which he didn’t) it wouldn’t give me the right to continue the cycle.

Of course I can see why the Vikings might want to go a little lenient on Peterson. If I was the owner of a team that had Christian Ponder as my starting quarterback I would do everything I could to keep my superstar running back on the field.

In the end, I have no problems with watching NFL games on Sunday (other than getting time off of work to do it). I long ago made peace with the fact that athletes aren’t role models or heroes. You can’t really follow boxing without having to accept that people are assholes. I have to chuckle every time I hear someone talk about a player doing things “the right way”. All that does is set them up for a future disappointment. I’m sure Russell Wilson is a great guy, but does he need Peter King writing about Wilson needing to be “front and center” for the public to regain its trust in the league.

Ray Rice’s name will slide to the back pages soon enough. Just like Michael Vick, Ritchie Incognito and Lance Armstrong’s names did. It’s just another part of human nature to for us to let time dim the outrage. Its extremely possible that he finds away to bring some good out of this. More recently on Grantland, Bill Simmons wrote a poignant column about how it feels to be a parent of child in pain and how he couldn’t understand how someone would want to cause that.  In the passage he lays out a scenario for Peterson that would work just as well for Rice:

“Eventually someone will convince Peterson that he needs therapy, and that he will become an advocate for child abuse. Peterson will follow that person’s instructions for one of two reasons: He wants to save his football career or he understands that he failed as a parent and a human being….One or both of those reasons will be genuine”

Replace Peterson with Rice and replace child abuse for domestic abuse and that sums up the future for Ray Rice.

Better Late Than Never...Week Three Review

At least I made it to Week 3 before getting one of my picks wrong.  Hey, I can admit it when I make a mistake.  The young Raven defense impressed me with their win against Houston as they kept the high octane Houston offense from getting off the ground.  Does that make me change my opinion that Baltimore will miss the playoffs?  Nope., but it does make me feel better about the defense.

This picture has nothing to do with the post, I just miss the Fu.

Granted I only watched the first half of the game (thanks hospitality job!) so my thoughts are only based on a half of football where the only consistency on the Baltimore offense was Bryant McKinnie getting face mask penalties. Luckily for Joe Flacco and his cohorts  Matt Schaub lost sight of the underneath coverage and hit Ravens linebacker Daryl Smith right between the numbers.  Smith scampered 37 yards and the Ravens had their first touchdown of the day.  If you want a sign that this is indeed a new Baltimore defense, they managed to score a defensive touchdown without a single lateral.  I’m sure on the other sideline Hobo Ed Reed wept.

Tandon Doss then totally redeemed his horrible preseason by running a punt back and the Texans’ backs were officially broken.  Let’s take a moment to congratulate the prognostication powers of Dan Dierdorf (and his broadcast partner Greg Gumbel totally whiffing on his point)

It’s hard to be critical of an offense that was missing its number one running back, number one tightend and number two wide receiver, but man is it brutal to watch at times.  Flacco is never going to be the efficient, precision passing leader of offense like Peyton Manning or Drew Brees. That’s just not his game.  He’s a big-armed quarterback that relies on his receivers to make difficult catches.  He is, to mix sports metaphors, “wild in the strike zone”.  The ball gets to the general area that it needs to be, but his receivers tend to need to stretch an extra inch or five to make the reception. And THAT is the reason that losing Anquan Boldin and Dennis Pitta at the same time hurts the offense.  At this point, no one on the team has that ability to make the difficult catch consistently.  Heck, they are still working on catching the passes that he does get on the mark (ahem Dallas Clark).

"I totally forgot to up my 401k contribution"

One nice thing about procrastinating this week is that I do get to ignore the rest of the game and mention the Love Bus controversy.  For those of you that block any Ravens related news story it appears some members of the team went out to celebrate McKinnie’s birthday and, allegedly, a minor altercation ensued.

All in all it probably would have escaped TMZ’s attention except for the part where the stripper named Sweet Pea hit Jacoby Jones over the head with an oversized champagne bottle - allegedly. Which is freakin’ allegedly hilarious.  I’m sorry, I’m sure that I’m supposed to be outraged that 20 and 30-year-old men are hanging out with strippers, but I can’t help but laugh.

Let’s look at the bright side.  The only thing brandished was a bottle, no firearms. And no one was drinking and driving. In the world of professional sports this was a downright responsible party. Heck, even if Jones has been concussed by the bottle it wouldn’t have been the wackiest injury of the week in the NFL.  Congratulations go out to Nate Burleson and his pizza-related broken arm for winning that award.

Coach Harbaugh is putting on his best Ward Cleaver face by saying that he was “disappointed” with the reports and that is isn’t something that the players should be “proud of”. Heck, he even dropped the “nothing good happens after midnight” line.  Can you see Harbaugh calling Jones into the office and giving him the, “Jacoby, I’m not mad at you, just disappointed” speech?  Because I can. That’s why we need a HBO 24/7 show on a football team throughout the whole season.

This being the world we live in, the incident didn’t die the quick death it deserved.  On ESPN’s Monday Night Countdown Ray Lewis was asked to comment on the altercation and he spun into a lack of leadership on the team. If there is anyone who knows that nothing good happens after midnight, it’s Ray Lewis.  He does make a valid point - a point that others have made. Who is the leader on this team? Is it laid back Joe Flacco? Terrell Suggs?  While most expect them to be, neither one is particularly suited to being clubhouse leaders.  At least not publicly. What happens behind closed doors no one, including Ray Lewis, knows. My vote for team leader - Justin Tucker, bitches!*

For the record, the team has brushed off any concerns about leadership, Suggs even mentions that they have a “lot of leaders” on the team.  Which might be a bit of a problem.  Too many chefs in the kitchen and all that….

Right now the Ravens are ranked 20th in passing yards and 25th in rushing.  That’s not good enough to get it done.  The defense, which has righted the ship since the Debacle in Denver, needs help.  Even if the offense doesn’t score points, they can’t keep stringing three-and-out drives together.  Even a young defense will get tired out if they’re on the field for too long.

 In the end, the Ravens are 2-1, tied for the division lead with the Bengals and two games clear of the reeling Steelers and one game ahead of the Browns.  With Buffalo up next for them there is a good chance that they finish the first quarter of the season at 3-1, which keeps them in the playoff race….for now.


*The phrase “Justin Tucker, bitches” was created by my sister, lover of kickers and punters, who once asked her husband, “Do you think he gets sad when he throws an interception?” At least that’s how the story goes.

Nervous? C'mon it Was the Browns

One nice thing about being a Ravens fan over the last decade and a half is that there is no feeling of panic being down to the Browns 6-0 at the half. I wouldn’t say I was happy with their first half performance, more like accepting of it.  If you have a friend who is a heroin addict do you get mad when he steals your wallet to buy more heroin?  No, you accept it and hide your wallet better.  The Ravens are my hophead friend.  Instead of being addicted to smack, they are addicted to three-and-out drives.

Just for you Big K.  #kickersarepeopletoo

At some point during the game a NFL “insider” tweeted something along the lines of “How about that Browns defense! Shutting out the Ravens!”. Apparently, this guy (I think it was Ian Rappaport) wasn’t watching the game, just the ticker.  The Browns defense was indeed pitching a shut out, but only because Justin Tucker was honoring Billy Cundiff by shanking two field goals and Joe Flacco had two touchdowns dropped by his receivers.  At best it should have been 20-6, at worst 10-6.  So yeah, great job Browns!

That being said, the Ravens still had their fair share of stalled drives in the first half (four of them).  Flacco is indeed the King of Cool, but at times the entire offense seems to adopt a laissez-faire attitude toward scoring.  And while that works against Cleveland, it really, really doesn’t work against teams that actually play competent football.

Next week they have to take on Houston, and while the Texans have their issues, they can definitely move the ball down the field at a better pace than the Browns.  Even if brittle wide receiver Andre Johnson is out, Matt Schaub still has Owen Daniels, Arian Foster, Ben Tate and rookie DeAndre Hopkins to choose from.  Getting pressure on Schaub is a must, and the good news for zubaz-clad Ravens fans is that the defense has done well pressuring quarterbacks so far.

In two games they’ve racked up 8 sacks, mostly while rushing only 4.  Terrell Suggs is healthy and benefiting from the attention paid to Elvis Dumervil and Chris Canty.  Now that Arthur Jones is back from his life-threatening viral infection the front seven is looking vastly improved.

Which is good, because the secondary is still a bit Chykie, I mean shaky.  It appears John Harbaugh experiment of playing a safety who can’t tackle is over now that rookie Matt Elam (GO GATORS!) has seemingly replaced Michael Huff.  Having 11 players on the field who know they can tackle should improve the defense a tad.

Yes that Chykie Brown reference was just so I could post this picture

Unfortunately, they are still having issues covering multiple threats in the open.  Several times Browns’ tight end Jordan Cameron was wide open. So open that even Brandon Weeden couldn’t miss him. That was something that plagued the Ravens against the Broncos and could cause havoc next week against the Texans.

Also a possible cause of havoc - Ray Rice’s injury.  It’s never good when a player goes down without being hit. While the team is “hopeful” that his hip flexor will be better by next week, if he’s out it could be a big blow to the team’s struggling offense.  The good news is that Bernard Pierce is capable of filling Rice’s cleats, behind Pierce there isn’t much of an option.  Right now the only other running back listed on the roster is newly signed Shaun Draughn who was picked up off the waiver wire to boost the return game in Jacoby Jones absence.

Pierce isn’t as reliable catching the ball out of the backfield as Rice is, so it potentially removes one of Flacco’s safety valves. Rice is tied with Torrey Smith for the team lead with 11 receptions, and while fewer of them have been check downs then they have been in the past, Rice is still one of the few receivers that Flacco is familiar with. Against the Browns he almost completely abandoned throwing to the tight ends as Dallas Clark only had one catch (and he held on to it!) as did new comer Billy Bajema.

I have a feeling that the Ravens are going to go back to a pound-the-rock ground game next week after two weeks of flinging the football around.  Keeping the Texans offense off of the field seems to be the best way to keep them from scoring, so prolonging drives and slowly moving down the field seems to be the smart way to go.

Marlon Brown does seem to be emerging as a capable replacement for Jones, despite dropping a sure touchdown in the first half.  He did have some nice catches in the second half and at 6’5” he has the height to reel in some of Flacco’s less than accurate passes.  If he keeps progressing he could develop into Anquan Boldin 2.0 and give the Ravens the third down/ red zone possession receiver they need to compliment the deep threat in Torrey Smith.

Through two games the Ravens are 1-1 (tied for the AFC North lead!) which is better than being 0-2.  I know, master of the obvious, but in the AFC this year there is a decent chance that a 7-9 team makes it to the playoffs.  Why can’t the Ravens be that team?

Super Bowl Preview

Will we see this again?

It’s Super Bowl Sunday.  Well, almost.  I’m typing this up Saturday night waiting for the Julio Ceaser Chavez, Jr. fight to start.  Don’t worry, no boxing in this column (RIP Angelo Dundee) I’ll have my thoughts on Floyd Mayweather’s next big boxing contest in a little while.  For now it is time to wrap up my brief coverage of football.

Sunday will feature two teams that slugged their way to the Super Bowl.  New England advanced only after Billy Cundiff shanked a field goal while New York needed overtime to advance on their side. Despite rooting for one of the teams that lost on Championship Sunday I thought overall both games were pretty fun to watch. Now we move on to the fun stuff.

Gambling-wise here is where we stand:

Link – 5-5 against the spread and 2-4 straight up.

Justin G – 5-5 against the spread and 4-7 straight up.

We both enter the Super Bowl with a chance to finish with a winning record against the spread.  However, when the confetti settles on the field and the MVP proclaims his desire to visit the Rat Kingdom there will only be one.

Per vegasinsider.com the Patriots are the 3 point favorite.

First, via twitter, Link’s pick –

New York Giants 27, New England Patriots 24

That sounds like an exciting Super Bowl.  Isn’t that what we’re looking for?  At least those of us without a dog in the fight.  I really don’t want to have to talk to people about the commercials being better than the game this year.  The stars are lining up for a pretty good offensive game.  It’s in a dome, both teams have questionable defenses and both quarterbacks like to throw the football.

There is a 50 percent chance that I’m going to watch the game at a movie theatre on Sunday.  The Duchess is kicking me out of the apartment for the game and with no party to go to I was thinking bar.  Then I noticed The Vic is showing the game for free.  They have cheap beer and popcorn.  Winner Winner Super Bowl Dinner.

Speaking of dinner, I’m kind of glad that I’m not going to a house party this year. With the fried food ban in full effect it would be hard to resist any type of buffet-style party.  According to some expert somewhere, the only day where Americans consume more food is Thanksgiving.  I’m willing to bet dollars to (fried) donuts that more fried food is consumed on Super Bowl Sunday than any other day in the year.

I’m starting to see people say that they’re tired of the Super Bowl-hype.  Let me tell you something.  Going off the cable grid is the answer to that.  Since we’ve dropped cable I find that I don’t get overwhelmed by sports chatter.  I feel like I have the ability to control what I watch or read about since all of my access is through the internet. I don’t find myself mindlessly drifting to ESPN to watch Skip Bayless yammer on for 15 minutes.  I highly recommend it.

As for my pick.  I’m going:

New England Patriots 31, New York Giants 24

The two themes I have heard this week are that the Giants front four will harass Tom Brady (so calm so poised) all game long and the Patriots will have Julian Edelman covering a wide receiver.  For those reasons everyone is supposedly hammering the Giants at the betting windows.  Somehow, despite being the odds-on favorites the consensus is that the Patriots are the underdog.

I’m not so sure about that.  I can see Tom Brady (so calm, so poised) coming out with a hurray-up/pistol offense and dink and dunk the Giants to death.  The Patriots offense isn’t based on long passes or plays that take a long time to develop.  They love the quick shots to their tight ends and then letting them run for 10 or 12 yards after the catch.  That’s hard to defend, and if they’re going quick-huddle the big four linemen for the Giants are going to be gassed.

Any time you can post a picture of Brady with a goat you have to do it, right?

As for the Patriots secondary matching up with New York’s receivers – that’s going to be an issue, but I think they find a way to minimize the damage.  I think they’ll find a way to keep the receivers in front of them and not give up the long bombs. Bill Belichik has two weeks to figure out a solution.  He might not shut them down, but he’ll make them work for it.

That being said, I think the Giants have a legitimate chance in the game.  A lot of folks think Eli Manning is just lucky.  They point to the Tyree helmet catch and say, “Oh he just flung it up there and got lucky”.  Yes, but did you see what he did to get in a position to be able to throw that pass?  He has a little Roethlisberger in him.  In a good way, that is.  Get your minds out of the gutter, folks.  He hands around and makes the plays he has to make.

For the Giants to win I look for them to try and establish the run and keep the Patriots off the field.  Their offensive line will have to find a way to clear Vince Wilfork out of the way and open up holes for their runners.  Use the run early and throw late. Keep Tom Brady (so calm, so poised) and his band of tight ends on the sidelines.

In the end I just hope for a good game and at least two good commercials that I haven’t seen yet.   

Sorry Rory, this was too good not to share with dozens of readers.

Get Your Short Term Investments In!

OK. Here we go! I know all of you sharps out there have been waiting for our NFL Conference Round predictions so that you can get your bets in.  I must say, both Link and I redeemed ourselves a bit in the Divisional round as we both went 3-1 against the spread and I pulled a 2-2 straight up (Link only gave me his numbers against the spread).  So for the playoffs he is at 1-3 straight up and 5-3 against the spread.  I’m at 4-4 against the spread and 3-5 straight up.  Both of our records are respectable with a chance to finish over .500 by the end of the Super Bowl.

Now onto this week.  As always the lines are from vegasinsider.com and represent what the betting opened up at.

Baltimore at New England (-7.5)

Link is taking the favorite and based on his final score prediction of 38-22 it looks like he thinks New England will be able to score on the Ravens defense.

For me, this is a tough one.  Everywhere I look people are picking the Patriots.  Most New England fans are already talking about how they are looking forward to getting revenge on the Giants in the Super Bowl.  Their main reasons are pretty sound:

1.       New England has an unstoppable offense

2.       Joe Flacco can’t beat them

To that I say “Poppycock!”

I’m going full-on Ravens fan here and consequences be damned. The Patriots offense is the best in the league, but it can be slowed down.  Pittsburgh was able to do it as were Giants and the Cowboys.  Throughout the season New England threw up a lot of points on a lot of crappy defenses.  The only top five defenses (based on yardage allowed) that they faced were the Steelers, Jets and Eagles.  Baltimore finished the season ranked third in yardage allowed (288.9) and points allowed (16.6).

I like those numbers for the Ravens.  Of course, the key is going to be putting pressure on Tom Brady, which isn’t the easiest thing in the world to do.  It’s hard for pass rushers to get to him since they rely on a lot of quick routes.  I think you’ll see the Ravens try and press the big three receivers (Hernandez, Welker and Gronkowski) at the line of scrimmage to throw the timing off on their routes.

If they are able to do that, it should give Terrell Suggs time to wreak havoc in the backfield. What Suggs and the rest of the team has to focus on is staying disciplined.  So far this year they’ve done a great job of not taking stupid penalties that extend drives for their opponents.  Going into the game they have to know that the refs will frown on anytime rough tactics visited upon Brady and his cohorts so they have to keep their emotions in check. 

Along with the pressure in the backfield they also need their secondary to make some plays.  Ed Reed, Jimmy Smith, Bernie Pollard, and Cary Williams have to have their best game of the season. They have to know when to go for the pick (which seems to be always) and when to know play the man to prevent the big play.  If they keep the receivers in front of them they can make the Patriots work for every yard. 

As for Joe Flacco.  We’ve had a season of Good Flacco/ Bad Flacco.  Hopefully this game sees the return of Good Flacco.  That’s the rub, they don’t need Great Flacco to win this game.  He doesn’t have to throw for 400 yards and 6 touchdowns.  An average day of 250yrds and 2 touchdowns will probably be good enough to win.  The key to winning will be Flacco being good enough to take the pressure off of Ray Rice.  If he makes enough completions down the field, it’ll force the Patriots to respect the pass and give Rice enough room to make his magic work.

I think the Ravens get physical early, get a defensive touchdown and pull off the upset.

Ravens 27, Patriots 24

New York at San Francisco (-2.5)

Link has the Giants pulling out ahead in a low scoring game, 17-6.

Link had San Fran winning 23-17.  Not sure how I misread the text that badly.

I’m not going to lie, I’m thinking along the same lines.  With the beatdown the Giants put on the Packers last week I’m kind of surprised that the 49er’s are favored.  There has been some late money coming in on the Giants that has pushed the line down to 2 in some casino’s which might indicate the public likes New York’s front seven against the Alex Smith.

By the same token I think San Francisco’s defense is going to present a challenge for Eli and the boys in blue.  As I mentioned last week, the 49er’s like picking the ball off.  They used that to their advantage last week against the Saints and I think it will be a factor this week as well.  However, Eli finds a way to win despite having horrible stats.

Giants 19, 49er’s 10

Back To Football - and Introducing the Joe Flacco Drinking Game

OK.  So we didn’t exactly light up the scoreboard with our picks last week.  For the record I went 1-3 straight up and 1-3 against the spread (thanks Tebow!).  Link went 1-3 straight up, but 2-2 against the spread as he correctly predicted New Orleans to cover the 6.5.

This week we’re going to continue to give you bad gambling advice while breaking down the second round games.  The lightweights are gone, the big boys are rested and it’s time to see if Tebow-mania is going to roll on.

First off, let me offer my condolences to Link’s Steelers, like a blind, three-legged dog with failing kidneys they were finally put out of their misery. I imagine a lot of changes are coming for that team this offseason.

When was the last time all four home teams won AND covered their spread? For me the biggest surprise of the week was the Houston blowout of Cincinnati.  I didn't think a TJ Yates-led team would dominate in a playoff game. Good for them! Will he pull off a shocker in Baltimore this week? Let’s find out!

Saturday 4.30 EST New Orleans (-3.5) at San Francisco

 If I’m reading the NFL stats right we have the number one passing offense going up against the 17^th best pass defense in the league. Drew Brees had a ho-hum 466 yard/ 3 TD performance against the Lions last week. He’s now thrown 28 touchdowns against only 3 picks in the 7 weeks since the bye week. That’s crazy good. However, the 49er’s did pick off 23 passes this season and Brees can throw ‘em in bunches when he’s harassed.

Some folks out there are making a lot of the fact that the Saints are an indoor team that might struggle outdoors.  Two of their three losses were outdoors (Green Bay and Tampa), but they also came early in the season before their offense really started clicking. The weather is expected to be decent so I don’t think it’ll be that big of an effect in the game.  I doubt the Saints will be able to run the ball much, but should be able to hit the short passes and bombs to put enough points on the board.

 As for the 49er’s on offense…..well it is Alex Smith.  He’s not exciting, but he doesn’t turn the ball over either, only 5 INTs on the season.  They rushed for about 127 yards a game so I’m guessing they are a ball control, let the defense win the game type of team.  I’m not going to lie, I haven’t seen too much of them this year. Not sure that gets it done against a team with the firepower of the Saints.

I’m going:

Saints 27, 49’ers 17


Now onto the marquee matchup for the day:

Denver at New England (-13.5)

There’s no way Denver wins this game, right?  Despite being heavy underdogs last week against Pittsburgh there were things that you could look at as being in the Broncos favor, namely a depleted and banged up Steelers team and home field advantage.  This week they are looking at a rested New England squad that has the AFC’s best offense and what should be a rowdy (i.e. well-lubricated) crowd.

There is no way the Patriots make the same mistake the Steelers did in letting Tim Tebow drop back and huck the ball down the field.  Link and I spoke earlier this week about that being the easiest throw a quarterback can make. I can see New England keeping their safeties back and forcing Tebow to complete 8-15 yard passes that require some sort of accuracy, something that he has trouble with. 

If Denver can run the ball, great let them run all day long.  Make them grind out 10 minute drives because you know Tom Brady can march down the field and score in 3 minutes.  As we saw when they met earlier this season Denver can’t keep up with them in a shoot-out. 

Patriots 28, Denver 13

On to Sunday

Houston at Baltimore (-7.5)

It seems the pundits are chalking this one up to a relatively easy Ravens victory.  I’m not so sure.  Granted, I think they win, but I have a feeling it will be an ugly, grinding 15-14 kind of game.  Instead of breaking it down I will give you, instead, the Joe Flacco drinking game:

Drink:

Every time Flacco checks down to Ray Rice
Every time Flacco overthrows Rice by 5 feet on a swing out pass
Flacco overthows Torrey Smith by inches on a 50 yard bomb
Dennis Pitta has to leap 3 feet in the air to haul in a 3^rd and 8 reception

Shot: 

Flacco hits Smith on a 50 yard bomb for a touchdown
You realize Flacco hasn’t completed a pass to a wide receiver in a quarter and a half
Flacco scrambles like a new-born calf on roller skates for a first down
Flacco takes a delay of game penalty
Flacco throw a deep pass into the end zone to draw a pass interference penalty…and gets the call
Flacco completes 8 passes in a row to raise his completion percentage to 50% on the day

I kid, I kid.  I like Joe Flacco and think he’s a better quarterback than critics give him credit for.  I look for Ray Rice to have a typical productive day and the defense feasts on a couple of T.J. Yates turnovers.

Bonus Chug:

Ed Reed attempts a lateral after picking a pass off.

Baltimore 17, Houston 13

The final game of the weekend and a pretty good matchup

New York at Green Bay (-8.5)

The key matchup is going to be the Giants pass rush against a banged up Green Bay offensive line.  If they can get penetration (heh, heh penetration) and fluster Aaron Rodgers they can make it a long day for Mr. Discount Double Check.  Like Brady in New England, Rodgers has plenty of options to throw it to, but it’ll be hard to hit Jordy Nelson when he’s laying on his backside.

On the other side Green Bay gives up a ton of yardage(411 per game) but also creates turnovers (31 picks and 7 recovered fumbles). So I wouldn’t be surprised to see Eli throw for 350 yards but also turn the ball over 4 times. 

By the way, nice move by the Yankees picking up Michael Pineda.  Now their pitching staff is almost as good as the Rays.

Packers 27, Giants 21

Due to a project at work (that required multiple cover letters for TPS reports) Link wasn't able to get to his side of the discourse.  He did however provide his picks)

New Orleans -3.5
New England -13.5
Houston +7.5
Giants +8.5

Please Allow Me to Retort

Now that Link has provided some actual football insight on this webpage, now it’s time for my half-reasoned analysis for the upcoming playoff week.  My knowledge on teams not based in the Charm City has been gleaned from watching the RedZone channel, Kissing Suzy Kolber  and Bill Simmons’ weekly previews.  Not exactly insider information. If you use any of the below information for short-term investment advice then you're a fool. Ask my uncle about how good I am at picking winners. I think his house in Florida is partially financed on the future payments I owe him from lost bets.

Here we go….

Cincinnati at Houston

Wow, the AFC features some real hot teams in the playoffs, eh? Cincinnati finished the second half of the season with a 3-5 record while Houston defined backing into the playoffs by losing their last 3 games.  How about a new rule, NFL? If a team loses their 3 games and still qualifies for a playoff spot they lose any rights to a home playoff game.   

As for the game itself – my key matchup is TJ Yates against the Bengals defense.  At some time in the second half I have a feeling we’re going to hear Al Michaels Tom Hammondfollowing:

“Third and six for the Bengals from their own 24.  The snap.  Yates drops back…he’s under pressure…rolls to his right…lets it go….PICKED OFF... Maualuga is at the twenty! The fifteen! Ten! No one is going to touch him! Touchdown Bengals!”

Normally I would hesitate to take a rookie quarterback on the road, but the alternative is TJ Yates or Jake Delhomme.  Cincinnati’s defense sways my decision. Like Link wrote, they find a way to shut down Foster and put the game in Yates’ hands.

Bengals 23, Texans 17

Detroit at New Orleans

This game should be fun. Drew Brees is a machine whose sole goal is to put up offense.  Calvin Johnson was put on this earth to make spectacular touchdown catches. The over/under on this game is at a ridicules 59. The Lions averaged almost 400 yards a game while the Saints were around 467 yards a game. Their defenses gave up 360 some odd yards a game.  Both quarterbacks threw for more than 5000 yards this season.  Holy Crap.

Why do I have a feeling it’s not going to live up to all of that potential? The two teams met in early December with the Saints emerging as the 31-17 winner.  While Brees had his typical 360 yard, 3 TD game the Lions added to their own misery by racking up over 100 yards in penalties.  Defensive menace Ndamukong Suh was missing in action as well due to his 2-game suspension.

If Detroit can get some pressure on Brees they can create some turnovers. If they can’t convert the turnovers into points at the very least they have to burn some time off the clock.  The only way to really slow down the Saints offense is to keep them off the field.  I think they do enough to keep it close, but Brees kills them with a last minute 78 yard touchdown drive.

Saints 27, Lions 24

Atlanta at New York Giants

Link touched on this yesterday.  Who are the New York Giants?  They were 4-4 at home and 5-7 in the NFC overall.  Yet here they are hosting a home playoff game.  On the other hand, you could say the same thing about Atlanta.  Yes they have 10 wins, but 7 of those wins were Seattle, Carolina (twice), Indianapolis, Minnesota, Jacksonville and Tampa Bay. Not exactly the cream of the NFL crop.

I do like Atlanta’s running game more than the Giants so I think I’ll give them the nod.  Despite both teams being pretty similar I think we’re due for a blowout.  Victor Cruz gets hurt early and Eli can’t adjust leading to an Atlanta rout.

Falcons 28, Giants 10

Pittsburgh at Denver

A team that has lost their last three games against a team that is missing 80% of its lineup.  The final playoff matchup of the weekend might set the forward pass back 20 years.  Tim Tebow can’t hit a pass longer than 15 yards with any type of consistently and Ben Roethlisberger can’t drop back more than 2 steps without getting hit by a linebacker.

The thing is, it seems like Roethlisberger has been hobbled and without options for the last 4 years and he still finds ways to win games.  His career record is 80 and 33 which translates to a .708 winning percentage. Of the top fifty quarterbacks, win-wise, only Joe Montana and Roger Staubach have a better winning percentage*.  Wins aren’t the greatest way to measure a quarterback, but still, that’s impressive.

Maybe I’m jaded because I’ve watched him shrug off Ravens tacklers and complete absurd third-and-twelve’s seemingly every year, but he just finds ways to get it done.  Frankly it pisses me off.  More so than the Tebow media hype. I don’t see why this should be any different.  The Broncos will try and run the ball and win the possession/field position battle, but I still think Roethlisberger finds a way to get it done.

If I was the Broncos I would try and take some shots down field.  After all, is anyone expecting it?  Why not have Tebow fake an option to Willis McGahee, drop back and chuck an awkward, 40- yard duck off his back foot to Eric Decker?  What’s the worst that can happen?

In all likelihood the Steelers get an early lead, Tebow bulls his way to a touchdown with a minute left and they fail to recover the on-side kick.

Steelers 13, Broncos 10

 *I pulled these numbers off of Wikipedia. It's amazing how hard it is to find win/loss records for NFL quarterbacks.

A Break From My Stuff - Link Drops By With a Few Playoff Predictions

As I mentioned in my last post The Hopeful Chase is going a bit more football this weekend.  Since I have no clue as to what I’m talking about I’ve brought in someone who follows the game a bit more than I do. Former Saint Leo baseball great, former radio talk show host, former gum slingin’ salesman, and unremitted Pittsburgh sports lover – Link!  You may remember Link from such posts as “An Eulogy in Black and Gold” and “Let’s Review Game Sechs”.

Home teams are in all-caps and the lines posted are the opening lines from the Las Vegas Hilton via vegasinsider.com

Take it away, Link………

 
Cincinnati vs. HOUSTON  (-3)

Kids - that is how you stiff arm.

The last time the Bengals let a 9 point lead slip through their hands was when T.J. Yates threw a late touchdown pass. In that game, the Texans were playing without their stud wide receiver Andre Johnson.  Right now Yates has a separated shoulder (non throwing shoulder) which make me think if he struggles we will see Jack Delhomme early in this game.

The real question is how long can the Texans can survive playing a 3^rd string quarterback. I think the Bengals, despite their inability to beat winning teams, find a way to shut down Arian Foster.

Cincinnati 23 Houston 16

Pittsburgh (-8) vs. DENVER

It's funny 'cause Ben looks like he's dead.

First I have to admit that I am a Steelers fan from Pittsburgh (ed note – BOO HISS). Now that we have that out of the way, here are my thoughts.

To say the Steelers are hobbling into this game is an understatement. It would be quicker to tell you who is healthy as opposed to who is hurt. Pittsburgh has the best scoring defense in the NFL, but on offense, we all know Big Ben looks like Herman Munster trying to throw a pass. The offensive tackles have struggled all year with undersized speed rushers and the Broncos have two of them in Elvis Dummervill and Von Miller. The two mile high pass rushers should be able to get pressure on an immobile Roethlisberger and shorten a lot of Steelers drives.

Denver is led by Tim Tebow. It is hard to imagine a team playing a quarterback who can’t throw to his right. Good thing Denver can rely on their defense. I am not a Tebow basher, I do think he has talent, but I think he would have been better served learning to play the position by watching for a few seasons. The Steelers win this battle, but it won’t be easy.

Pittsburgh 15 Denver 10

Atlanta vs. NEW YORK GIANTS (-3)

Remember when Stokley caught the ball in the Super Bowl? I don't. I was a little tipsy

Can you tell who the real New York Giants are? Are they the team that shut Dallas out in the first half or the team that looked awful in Week 15 against the Redskins? Atlanta started off slow, so people forgot about the Falcons, but they have quietly put up 11 wins.

The big question is which defense will show up? The Falcons and the Giants have been passed upon all year. The Falcons 1-2 punch of Roddy White and Julio Jones is better than the Giants Victor Cruz. Even though I like the Giants defensive line a lot more, I think Atlanta finds a way to win. By the way, take the over (ed note – currently at 47.5).

Atlanta 41 New York 30

Detroit vs. NEW ORLEANS (-10.5)

Hey Willis!

Wow, what to say other than I think this is your old style WAC match up. If you are a defensive coordinator you won’t get a lot of sleep this weekend. The Saints come into the playoffs looking like a well-oiled machine. Their offense is on fire and their defense played surprisingly well down the stretch. The Lions are all offense and no defense, but damn is their offense fun to watch. Put the kiddies to bed early, this is gonna be a shootout (ed. Note – the over/under on this game is currently 59).

New Orleans 48 Detroit 34

Look for Justin G's unscientific breakdown on Saturday!

The Indianapolis Colt's Humiliation is Complete

Is Indy so bad that ESPN is kicking them out of the standing?