Some Thoughts on Steven Stamkos and the Lightning Cap Situation

Steven Stamkos is going to Toronto…to play a game.  If you follow hockey you have read that he is playing his first game of the year in his hometown. The national media has taken the opportunity to reopen the discussion about his future. From what I see, most still seem to think he is Toronto bound the second his deal with the Lightning expires.

As you may remember, I declared that I wouldn’t comment on the drama surrounding Stammergeddon II until he re-signed, was traded or signed with a new team and I’m not going to break that oath right now. However, let’s check in on the Lightning’s roster situation and how General Manager Steve Yzerman is going to handle his roster.

Let’s get this out of the way first.  The team that is in the best position to sign Steven Stamkos is the Tampa Bay Lightning.  They can offer the longest contract (8 years) and will have the least amount of impact to their salary cap no matter how much he signs for.  He is already eating up $7.5 million of their cap. Should he sign a deal that pays him $11-12 million that’s only an additional $4.5 million they have to come up with at most. Every other team in the league is going to have to find $12 million in cap space to accommodate the sometimes right winger.

More good news. According to War-On-Ice’s contract page the Lightning have at least $5.2 million coming off of their cap without affecting the current roster.  Mattias Ohlund’s contract ($3.6 million) and Sam Gagner’s ($1.6 million) are both off the books after this season. That’s more than enough to cover Stamkos’ raise and have a little left over.  It’s not enough to cover everything the team needs so it’s a good thing that…

So long Mr. Ohlund and thanks for all of your long term injury relief.

…Gary Bettman is estimating the salary cap will go up about $3 million next season. Now Mr. Yzerman can start chipping away at his Restricted Free Agent Forwards (Alex Killorn, Vlad Namestnikov, JT Brown and Nikita Kucherov). I expect that once the Stamkos situation has been resolved at least two of those guys will sign a multi-year bridge deal to give the team a little more roster stability.

Taking care of just those five contracts will take up most of the extra cap space, leaving the general manager little flexibility in bringing in free agents or making trades to fix any holes that might develop over the next year and a half. Also, should the cap not rise dramatically over the next 2 or 3 seasons they’ll be looking to figure out how to re-sign Tyler Johnson, Ondrej Palat, Ben Bishop and Victor Hedman. All of them will be looking for new deals in 2017-18.

Hedman looks to be in line for the biggest raise as he is a steal right now at $4 million a year. If he continues his climb up the ladder among league defensemen he could be looking at least doubling what he’s making now. Should he not renew his deal in the next year, he’ll be the next Lightning player drawing trade talks throughout the year.

The Lightning could give them some breathing room if they can find a taker for Matt Carle ($5.5 million), but in all likelihood they would have to retain some salary and the return would be mediocre at best. That makes me wonder if Braydon Coburn’s name starts getting thrown around a bit more over the next couple of months.

Hey, even better they could BOTH by gone!

He is an unrestricted free agent after this season and with the number crunch it’s unlikely that the Lightning are bringing him back at what he makes, $4.5 million, or possibly higher.  The 30-year-old has been steady for the Lightning, picking up 5 points and averaging 16:44 on the ice through 30 games. He is the most physical of the defensemen on the roster have accumulated 46 hits on the season and does start a few more of his shifts in the defensive zone than the offensive zone (51.3/48.7%).


As the Lightning limp along what is increasingly lost situation I’m sure Mr. Yzerman’s phone is ringing a bit more. Defensive depth is always at a premium in the rush up the trade deadline.  Everyone wants to strengthen their blue line and an experienced , tough player with Stanley Cup experience might see his value rise a bit above what he contributes to his current team.

Mr. Yzerman is on record stating that he has no big deals in the works. He told the Tampa Bay Times, “Don’t sit around holding your breath waiting for us to make this big, giant move,” also mentioning that teams around the league are wary about taking on long term contracts.

Of course, Coburn doesn’t fall into that category as a team would only have to pay for him for the rest of the season.  Mr. Yzerman also hedged his words a little stating that if a team came to him with, “something (that) makes sense to make us better, we’ll do it”.  Not that a statement like that is out of character for the former Red Wing.  It is the cornerstone of his team building strategy.

He also isn’t one to panic. He won’t make moves for the sake of making moves or hoping that bringing in some new blood will spark a playoff run.  It is the smart move to do.  All evidence points to this season being an aberration enhanced by injuries.  They might have to write this season off in order to stay a long-term competitive team.  It’s not fun right now, but making knee-jack reactions could cause long-term issues in the future.

This season isn’t over by a long stretch and while the Lightning are on the outside looking in currently, a six or seven game point streak puts them right back into the playoff picture.  A turnaround could be sparked by something as simple as being healthy.  The Triplets were back together for just one game and it was a nice 4-1 win over the Ottawa Senators.  Messing with the roster before this team has a chance to show what they are really made of would be a shame.

There is the possibility that Stamkos does go somewhere else this off-season.  All of a sudden things change.  In addition to all of the money mentioned above, Mr. Yzerman would have an extra $7.5 million in his pockets.  The Lightning become a big player in free agency.  Perhaps Anze Kopitar is still on the market.  Eric Staal would be a solid addition.  Imagine a blue line with Hedman and Brent Seabrook.

So Mr. Yzerman has a pretty busy stretch of work coming up.  Oh and don’t forget there could be an expansion draft in the next year or so.  That’s not something that a GM with an organization full of prospects is happy to think about.

The Lightning Survive Game 7 and So Did I

In keeping with the rest of this series this far, I did not watch much of Game 7 versus the Detroit Red Wings. In fact I only saw about 2 minutes at the end of period 2. Enough time to get a weird look from a guest when a groan escaped from my lips after Victor Hedman bounced a wide open shot off of the lucky horseshoe that Petr Mrazek had stuffed in his pads for this series. Truthfully, for my health, it was probably best that I didn’t have the chance to watch the game.

Game 7s are not enjoyable when your team is involved. I don’t care what anybody says. There is no “relax and have fun”. Every play is embodied with extra importance. Each shift adds a tiny little ball of stress. The only time you can relax is when the game is over. Even if your team jumps out to a three goal lead early you spend the rest of the game worrying that they will blow it. You find yourself yelling things like, “Get it out of the %$*& zone!” at the TV while your wife looks at you and questions her decision to marry you.

As I texted to a Superstar Sean last night - Game 7s take at least 4 years off of your life (still healthier than cigarettes!) So when I knew I had to work Wednesday night I wasn’t 100% bummed out.  More like 95%. Because, despite the previous two paragraphs, it is always better to have watched the game and died sooner than not to have watched it all.  I followed along by frantically refreshing NHL.com in between questions about local bars and where the closest bathroom is located (into the carpeted area and left of the bar).  I found three excuses to go over to the bar (hence the two minutes of TV time) and had a couple of friends shoot me texts to keep me up to date.

There was a small whoop (maybe more like a yelp) of joy when the screen changed to “3:58 Braydon Coburn (1) ASST: Ryan Callahan (3), Alex Killorn (2)”. Which led to some explaining to the guests standing in line to check in.  After a few more tense moments I finally relaxed when Scotty sent me a congratulatory text. So all in all not a bad way to experience it.  Just think Lightning fans - only three more rounds to go (if we’re lucky)!

So how do the Lightning’s Game 7s rank in order of stress?  Let’s go to the list from most stressful to least.

1. June 7, 2004 - Game 7 Stanley Cup Finals against Calgary.  I think this is the easy winner for all Lightning fans. After the unbelievable double-overtime Game 6 the stress level was a 100 out of 100. We had survived the gut-wrenching double-overtime Game 6 so there was no way the Lightning would blow it on home ice in Game 7, right?  Believe it or not I turned down a ticket to go to the game. Mostly because I was poor, but also because I knew there was no way I could handle being around other people with that much stress. Regrets, sure I’ve had a few.

I watched it alone in my condo. I actually paced back and forth in front of the TV. I’m sure there was a beer on my coffee table, but I don’t think I drank it. I shrieked like a girl when Ruslan Fedotenko scored (both times). I dropped to my knees and raised my arms in the air when the clock ran out on the final frantic seconds. Yes I geeked out big time. All things I couldn’t do in public. I might have even yelled out a few Larry Hirsch-esque “Yes, sir! Yes, sir! Yes, sir!”

Happiest sports day of my life. photo from Associated Press

One of the highlights of the night - about 30 minutes after the game ended, a slightly less-than-sober Hamel (my buddy who went to the game) called me to announce that he was celebrating the win with former Lightning goalie Darren Puppa (PUUUUUU-PPPPAAHHH). I congratulated the slightly embarrassed goaltender before the phone disconnected. Perfect ending to the night.

2. May 27, 2011 - Game 7 Eastern Conference Finals against Boston. This one clocks in at a nice 75 out of 100. After all, no one expected the Lightning to be there. They were playing with house money at the time. It would have been lower on the stress level if not for off the ice factors.

I wasn’t in the best place in life at the time. Unemployed, living week to week in Chicago, and completely at a loss with what to do with my life. Luckily I was also living  with an extremely patient girlfriend.  I met some friends and watched it at a bar downtown.  Of the Game 7s this is the only one the Lightning have lost. I might have wandered the streets wondering why I followed sports if this was going to be the payoff.

Highlight - Stamkos coming out onto the ice with the cage covering a broken nose he suffered earlier in the game. At that point the young center started his journey to being the leader of the franchise. Now if he could just find his scoring touch again.

Broken nose, broken leg - Boston has not been kind to Stammer. 

3. April 27, 2011 - Game 7 First Round against the Pittsburgh Penguins.  I put this at a solid 70 out of 100.  Much like the game against the Bruins, the Lightning weren’t even supposed to be here. They were a surprise to make the playoffs, they were playing the mighty Penguins (granted the Penguins didn’t have Sidney Crosby or Evgeni Malkin in the lineup) and the Pens had, at one point, a commanding 3-1 series lead.

The Lightning should have been done after losing in double-overtime on a fluky James Neal goal in game four. Instead they absolutely shellacked the Penguins in Game 5 and then tied the series in game 6 when Steve Downie (current Penguin!) and Ryan Malone (former Penguin!) scored third period goals.

This was not a fun game for the Lightning. This was one of those “4 years off your life” Game 7s. Dwayne Roloson stopped 36 shots for the playoffs and Sean Bergenheim scored the only goal.  This was also the series that made Sean Bergenheim a very rich man.

I think Link had the exact opposite reaction to this goal than I did.

Honestly, I always forget that this series went to a Game 7, I thought the Lightning beat them in 6. It was such a weird series, maybe one day I’ll do a deep dive into it.

4. Wednesday Night’s game. - A decided 50 out 100 in the stress category. First because I couldn’t watch it and second because I convinced myself that the Lightning couldn’t overcome the trapping/interfering/borderline cheating style that the Red Wings were playing. So I went in with pretty low expectations.

5.  May  22, 2004 - Game 7 Eastern Conference Finals against the Philadelphia Flyers. Stress on this one was a 5 out of 100.  I know, you’re shocked. A Game 7 to advance to the Stanley Cup Finals for the first time in franchise history? A moment to validate all of those horrendous games I went to where I had to convince myself that Sergei Gusev was a legitimate solution on the blueline. A chance to crush the dreams of Flyers fans, those hated, almost-rivals who always seemed to beat the Lightning?

To this day I’ve only seen about 5 minutes of this game. And that’s the last five minutes. Yet I have no desire to go back and watch the game. In fact, of all of the games the Lightning have played this is the one that means the absolute least.  Because this was the day that I had my first (unofficial) date with The Duchess.

After many, many months of talking we finally had decided to do something together without anyone else involved. Casablanca was playing at the Tampa Theater and we decided to catch it together, but not as a date, date. Just a couple of friends hanging out together - at least that’s what we told ourselves.  She was nice enough to call me early in the day and ask if I wanted to re-schedule because of the hockey game. Not being a fool I said no it would be fine.

So we went to the movie. After it was over we popped into The Hub where their one TV was showing the game. I ordered a way too strong drink and we watched the Lightning dispatch the Flyers amidst the riff-raff that fills a dive bar like The Hub on a Sunday afternoon.

Luckily for our relationship, The Duchess was out of town for the actual Stanley Cup finals.

So the Lightning move on and will try to vanquish the Canadians.  Remember those guys? The ones that punked them last season by sweeping them out of the first round? Will this series go to a game 7?  Maybe. If it does, I might have to call in sick for that one.