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| C'mon Stanley would order way more than that from room service! |
I thought that I had a great beginning
for this post. “THE LIGHTNING HAVE NEVER LOST A PLAYOFF SERIES TO
A CANADIAN TEAM!” Sadly, five seconds of research reminded me that
Tampa was bounced in five games by the Ottawa Senators in 2006. So
with that idea blown I put my laptop away, fired up Netflix and
watched three episodes of “Dawson's Creek”.
However, I can say that, “Despite
their long and illustrious history, the Montreal Canadiens have NEVER
WON A PLAYOFF GAME AGAINST TAMPA!” Granted they've only met once
and it was on the Lighting's 2004 March to Glory, but I'm never one
to let small details get in the way of my point of view.
With the regular season winding down it
was known rather early on that barring a collapse of Toronto Maple
Leaf-ian proportions the Lightning would be facing the Canadiens in
the first round of the playoffs. I had no problem with that match
up. As a matter of fact, among the Eastern Conference finalists they
are most likely the ideal opponent for the Bolts.
Even though the Lightning took three of
the four regular season games between the two clubs, only one of the
games was decided by more than one goal (and that game featured an
empty netter at the end) and three of the four meetings went to extra
hockey. So look forward to some bonus hockey in this series!
The Lightning's strength (offense)
matches up with Montreal's strength (keeping the puck out of the net)
on both regular play and on special teams. While it's a stretch to
say that the Lightning's power play is a “strength” it is better
than their ability to kill penalties. Luckily for them, the
Canadiens are almost as inept on the power play as the Lightning are
on the penalty kill. Special teams should cancel each other out.
Tampa Bay's offense is deeper than
Montreal's despite the deadline acquisition of Lightning-killer
Thomas Vanek. The Lightning boost an offense with four 20 goal
scorers and seven skaters with double digit goal totals. That's
depth right there folks. Of course lingering in the background, kind
of not being mentioned is the fact that two of those skaters –
Valtteri Filppula and Ondrej Palat – are banged up. While both are
scheduled to go in game one, if they were to miss any significant
time it could be damaging to the team's playoff hopes.
While Ben Bishop won the team MVP race
by 13 lengths, Filppula has been the glue that held the offense
together while Stamkos was out of the lineup. His solid play kind of
goes unnoticed from time to time until you look at the score sheet
and see that he had two assists or a goal and an assist. His ability
to move the puck in crowds also opens up the ice for Stamkos or Palat
on the power play.
Palat went from “Oh yeah, he's a
rookie, too” to “Legitimate Calder Hopeful” and two-time rookie
of the month. He has an uncanny ability to be in the right place to
score goals despite not being the biggest, fastest or best player on
the ice. His injury has yet to be diagnosed beyond “upper body”
but was most likely caused when he was trucked by Columbus' Jack
Johnson last week.
Of course the six-foot-seven sized
elephant in the room is Ben Bishop and his health. He has already
been ruled out of the first game and is questionable for the rest of
the series with his creaky left elbow. That means Anders Lindback
will get the call when the puck is dropped at the Forum Wednesday
night.
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| Or Gudas. He can play net. Look at that butterfly! |
Even the most ardent Lightning
supporter would have to give the edge in net to the Canadiens if
Bishop is out for a long stretch. As the eternal optimist I've found
a way for this to work to the Lightning's benefit. The weight of
the Canadian (country not team) world is now on the shoulders of
Carey Price. Remember, all of Canada must rally around the one
franchise in the True North that has a chance to win the Cup. Price
has come through for his country before.
For his professional team? Not so much.
He's one of the best damn goaltenders in the league yet the furthest
in the playoffs the storied franchise has found themselves with him
in net is the Eastern Conference finals in 2010. And they got smoked
4-1 by the Flyers that match-up. Oh yeah, and Price only played in
four games during the playoffs as he had lost his starting job to
Jaroslav Halak.
Couple that with the Canadiens (team
not country) 21st ranked 2.55 goals per game offense and
Price NEEDS to be great for them to advance. Meanwhile, anything
better than outright garbage from Lindback should be enough for the
Lightning to advance to the next round in the NHL's Sweet Sixteen
tournament. Of course, it would set up a nice plot line should
Lindback play out of his mind against Montreal and Bishop declare
himself healthy. What would Coach Cooper do? Stay with the hot goalie
or the one that got you to the playoffs?
That's getting a bit ahead of ourselves
though.
Let's break it down to the three things
the Lightning need to do to win the series:
- Score goals. Simply put they need to use their strength, offense, to mask the deficiencies they have in the net. In his last 8 games Steven Stamkos has only found the back of the net twice. That's not good. I'm all for secondary scoring, but in the playoffs the best player on the ice has to be the best player on the ice. It doesn't matter if he's on the wing or at center, he has to find his scoring touch in order to make life easier for Tyler Johnson, Palat and Filppula.
- Stay out of the penalty box. Yes, Montreal's power play isn't on par with the Penguins or Bruins, but that doesn't mean the Lightning can have a steady stream of players going to the sin bin. Even if the other team isn't scoring, every penalty is two minutes that your team isn't on offense (although Tyler Johnson and his 5 shorties might beg to differ). Plus extended shorthand time tends to lead to more shots given up. The Lightning are best off minimizing the shots fired in Lindback's direction, not increasing them. Which leads to the final point.
- Block shots. Yes it leads to bruises and increases the risk of Ryan Callahan missing games, but they have to, have to, have to, have to cut down on the number of shots that get to Lindback. Or even Bishop should he come back in the series. They need to get in the way of shots, control the puck and set up their counter attack.
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| Try not to use your face to block shots, boys! |
Prediction time! The only thing that
I'm worse at doing than predictions is writing consistently. If even
one of these comes true it will be a miracle.
Winner – Lightning in 6
Number of OT games – 4
Longest OT – 3
X Factor – PK Subban
Leading Scorer Lightning – Stamkos
Leading Scorer Canadiens – Vanek
Number of Games Bishop plays – 4
Number of Games Gudlevskis plays – 0
(please God let it be 0)
Lindback's GAA/SV% - 2.89/91.7
Number of games BJ Crombeen suits up -
2
Number of Radko Gudas hip-checks – 3
Number of Radko Gudas missed hip-checks
– also 3
Number of times announcers say “old
school hockey” when Gudas connects on a hip-check -13
Role Player who has surprisingly good
series – Tom Pyatt
Will JT Brown score a goal – Yes
Good luck Lightning!
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