Lightning Card of the Week - Witness the Death of the Personal Collection

That's it. I'm done. I'm throwing in the towel, stopping the fight before someone gets killed. That somebody being me. The reason – see below.

How that signature is "Brett Connolly" I have no idea

Yup, that's a Brett Connolly 2010-11 Panini Luxury Suite Relic/Auto numbered to 99 Rookie. I received it on February 27^th. By sundown on March 2^nd Mr. Connolly was no longer a member of the Tampa Bay Lightning. Following in the grand tradition of buying out Vincent Lecavalier and trading Dustin Tokarski, General Manager Steve Yzerman orchestrated a transaction to personally piss me off.

Therefore I'm done. No more new personal collections. I'm sticking with what I got, because I can't bear the responsibility of having MY BOY NIKITA KUCHEROV or Alex Killorn or Radko Gudas (wait what?) traded simply because I focused on him for my collection. Better to hunt for circa 2001 Lecavalier cards then have the blood of an innocent rookie on my hands.

As for the trade itself I'm not really that surprised. It was kind of expected that at some point Connolly was going to be traded. Despite being the first player drafted by Mr. Yzerman it seemed like the former Prince George Cougar was always the odd man out. The ascension of the TKO Trio kind of bumped Connolly and fellow non-personal collection forward J.T. Brown down the depth list. Once Vlad Namestnikov and Cedric Paquette joined the roster and didn't fall flat on their faces it was only a matter of time until Connolly was on his way out the door.

The return for Connolly was decent (a 2^nd round pick in 2015 and a 2^nd round pick in 2016) and helps Mr. Yzerman recover some of the assets that he lost in picking up Braydon Coburn at the deadline as well. Since he dealt one of his 1^st round picks it was nice to get back into the 2^nd round (the Lightning lost their initial pick in the round to the Rangers once they re-signed Ryan Callahan) and a chance to keep the prospect pipeline flowing into Tampa.

If the organization is going to be successful long term, they are going to have to keep drafting well. They don't have the financial resources to keep signing big name free agents in the off-season so they have to fill the roster from within. They also can't afford to constantly trade away 1^st round picks for deadline acquisitions like the Penguins have been doing. So if they do trade a 1^st rounder like they did for Coburn it makes sense to use a surplus asset (like young forwards) to recoup their losses.

It's interesting that Mr. Yzerman has now traded away the first three picks he made as a member of the Tampa Bay Lightning. Connolly was his first (drafted 6^th overall), Brock Beukeboom, a 3^rd round pick was traded to St. Louis for Eric Brewer and Radko Gudas, also drafted in the 3^rd round, was part of the deal that brought Coburn to Tampa this winter. I guess he kind of wants a do-over for that draft.

One of the few photos of Brock in a Lightning uniform and he is apparently auditioning for the Tonight Show.

Connolly was a stretch pick from the moment the Lightning called his name. While some evaluators had him as one of the top offensive talents in the draft that year, a hip injury had limited him to only 16 games during the 2009-10 season. When he was drafted everyone's favorite bald analyst Pierre Mcguire called him, “either a grand slam or a ground out”. Bob McKenzie pointed out that Connolly's right-hand, his dominant hand, had been crushed in a metal gate when he was a kid and that it “lacked structure”.

In the end, Connolly was more a less a solid double. He bounced back and forth between the AHL and the NHL, bounced back and forth between lines before finally settling as a 3^rd liner who was starting to find his scoring touch having netted a career-high 12 goals in 50 games for the Lightning this year. The Bruins were looking to add his presence for a playoff run, but a broken finger suffered in practice has pretty much shut down his season.

Compare the 2010 draft to the one a year later where four of the six picks (Namestnikov, MBNK, Nikita Nestorov and Ondrej Palat) have played for the Lightning and the other two players (Adam Wilcox and Matthew Peca) are among the organization's best prospects. Now that's a pretty good draft year. In fact, in terms of games played for the organization, it's probably the best draft since the Lecavalier, Brad Richards, Dmitry Afanasenkov, Martin Cibak draft of 1998 and the players are still on their entry level deals.

One of the problems of having so much young talent on the roster is that it does make it hard to figure out which individual players to invest in be it with cards or jerseys. I did take the plunge on drop a few bucks on a Kucherov jersey just because:

A – he shoots the puck a lot

B – not many people rock the 86

C – Nikita Kucherov is a bad-ass hockey name.

However, there is no guarantee he'll be here long term. The Lightning have a crazy amount of good young forwards who adapting well to the NHL level. While that is all well and good while they are under team control, it can get a bit expensive once they hit the open market. There is no way the team is going to be able to keep all of the players that they are developing now.

As a matter of fact I wouldn't be in the least bit surprised to see another team try and snatch one of the restricted free agents from the Lightning be sending them an offer sheet. Luckily, most of the players are actually signed through next season, but the 2016-17 off-season could be very, very interesting. Killorn, Brown, Kucherov and Paquette are all RFAs that year and could garner some interest. Oh and there is also the fact that Tampa Bay could still be trying to sign some old man named Steven Stamkos in that same summer.

Those, however, are headaches for the future. For now things are looking mighty bright. While my personal collection might be lying broken on the floor at least the team playing on the ice is moving right along. And I'll move on. In fact I actually went to a card show this weekend and acquired some new cardboard. The first card I picked up (at a ½ off sticker price box):

Signature is a little better in this one.

The One Where I Piggy Back A Post Off of a Real Website

Welcome to a new, and hopefully reoccurring, part of this blog. The fine folks over at Raw Charge (The Internet’s Bestest Place for All Things Lightning Related) have been posting a question of the week for some time now.  I’m not sure how long, definitely not as long Vinny’s 20-goal streak but longer than Niklas Sundstrom’s Lightning career.

 I’ve occasionally commented on their questions, but have always wanted to have a platform to expound upon my thoughts.  Then I remember that I had a blog.  Not only that, but a blog that sometimes even mentioned the Lightning. So with Chief-Raw Charger-Officer’s blessing I’ll be posting my thoughts (no matter how incoherent they are) on the weekly question.  He did make me promise not to call anyone mollycoddles or Johnny Bum’s so that might limit my quest to bring those words back into vogue, but that’s neither here nor there.

This week’s question: “What ONE thing would you go back andchange before the start of the season?”

Of course, Mr. Fontana would echo my thoughts with his answer – keeping Cedric Desjardins in the organization.  Allowing the Boucher-approved net minder to leave for rockier pastures of Colorado thinned out the Lightning’s stable of NHL-ready goaltenders.  Which is something that would have been nice with the pre-season number one allowing almost 4 goals a game and his counterpart proving that he can’t really handle the workload of a number one puck stopper.

So instead I’m going to say that if I was granted one very specific Lightning related wish I would have sent Brett Connolly back to his junior team this season.  I know, I know I’ve argued that he belonged with the team at the beginning of the season and heck, just the other day I twittered, tweeted, twitted that he could be the recipient of more playing time now that Dominic Moore is a Shark (Hmmm….in a future Winnipeg/San Jose match-up will they have the cojones to have a “Dress as your favorite ‘West Side Story’ character” night?).

Back when Connolly and the Lightning Power Play could score.  Photo from AP.

However, I’ve come to change my mind.  Seeing the difference in his play from earlier in the season to now makes it almost obvious that he wasn’t ready to be a factor for an NHL team.  After starting the season averaging almost 13 minutes of ice-time a game he hasn’t played more than 9 minutes a game since January 7^th. In those 15 games since the 7^th he has one assist and hasn’t scored a goal since November 17^th against Pittsburgh (Ha. Suck it Penguins’ fans!)

He’s been a scratch of the healthy variety several times since the calendar has flipped to 2012. It’s obvious that Coach Boucher isn’t at the point where he’s comfortable having the young winger on the ice during critical parts of the game.

His slump should help me acquire this card at a reasonable price. Bonus!

This doesn’t mean I think he’s a bust, or a dud if you prefer Lightning historical nomenclature.  The Campbell River native’s performance on the big stage of the World Juniors proved that he can perform against the best in the world; he just needs a little more seasoning to elevate his game in the NHL.

Would he have gotten that seasoning by spending a year in a league that he dominated in previously? That’s hard to say, but another year would have allowed the 19 year-old to put on more weight and become stronger.  Very few players can come into the league under the age of 20 and be effective. There is just such a tremendous difference in the speed and size of the players that it is hard to overcome, plus you can’t even enjoy a beer with your teammates after a hard-fought victory.  They still do that, right? Sit around the clubhouse and crack open a Molson or two while their various cuts get stitched up.  I like to think they do.

Next season will be a big test for Connolly.  He’ll have to earn his spot on the club especially with young prospects such as Carter Ashton and Cory Conacher knocking on the door.  Connolly has shown that he is willing to play physically, whether it’s crashing the net or going into the corners to battle for the puck. That’s going to be the biggest factor for him staying in the league. If, and it’s always a big if when talking about prospects, he can take it to the next level and finish the opportunities he creates.

He has undoubtedly learned a lot by being in the NHL, but with 20/20 hindsight, I think his days (if not his bank account) would have been better off in juniors for one more season.

Top Five Lightning Rookie Cards to Own

As the internet’s resident Tampa Bay Lightning card collecting blogger I must say this post is long overdue.  As the Lightning bandwagon grows (it’s actually more of a mini-van at this point) folks out there are going to want to know what cards they need for their collection. Well I’m here to drop the cardboard knowledge on you!

Coming up five names for this list was fairly easy.  That’s what happens when you follow a team that has been in existence less than 20 years.  I didn’t have to go back 40 years and figure which long-dead greats should make the list.  Nor did I have to debate which Hall of Famer should I leave off.  For the record on two members of the Hall of Fame have donned the black, silver and blue – Dino Ciccarelli (111 games) and Denis Savard (105 games). Spoiler alert – neither made the list.

I debated a couple of names from the pre-Cup teams, names like Selivanov, Puppa and Zamuner. In the end, I thought I’d stick with players whose rookie cards showed them in Lightning uniforms (with one exception). If I’d extended the list to 10, at least one of those names would have definitely made the list (but so would Nikita Alexeev – hey my list, my rules!).

One benefit of being a Lightning collector - low prices.  There isn't much demand for the cards below so they're pretty easy to pick up (with one glaring exception). 

With no further adieu – I present the Top Five Rookie Cards Lightning Fans Should Own

5. Brett Connolly 2011-12 Upper Deck - $4.25-$6.99

The new kid on the block has had an up and down rookie year.  His cards have slid back down a bit after starting off hot (around $10) when the Upper Deck series was first release.  His performance at the World Juniors provided another bump, but lately the prices have been coming back down (getting benched does that). 

Connolly could very well be the first of the new crop of Lightning stars to emerge in the NHL.  If things work out as management hopes, names like Carter Ashton, Dustin Tokarski, Cory Conacher and Tyler Johnson could be gracing this list pretty soon.

4. Brad Richards 1997-98 Upper Deck - $1.25- $5.00

Yes he’s a Ranger now (a dastardly Ranger who scores overtime goals against his former team), but he still has a loyal following in the Tampa Bay area.  Moving to the bright lights of the big city hasn’t affected his cards that much so they’re still relatively easy to obtain. 

Upper Deck was able to sneak a bunch of young players into their main set before they were drafted by creating a subset called “Program of Excellence” and showing them in dramatic staring-off-in-the-distance poses or in their Team Canada gear.  A very young Vincent Lecavalier is featured in this set as well.  Is that card on the list?  Only The Shadow knows.

3. Martin St Louis 1998-1999 Upper Deck Rookie - $.99 - $2.99

There are so many weird things about this card - the Calgary uniform, the number 46, the fact he isn’t scoring a goal. Marty’s entry into the NHL wasn’t exactly accompanied by fanfare. As a non-drafted, college player who toiled in the AHL for three seasons he didn’t get all of the bells and whistles that card companies lavish on top prospects.  So his Upper Deck rookie was just a common card released in the era of over produced sets.  Since there are a lot of these cards out there the prices remain low.

When he eventually retires I’m sure there will be some talk about the Hall of Fame for St. Louis.  He should have over 350 goals and close to 1000 points. I hope it’s enough for him to be enshrined, but you never know with these things.  If he is inducted it will be interesting to see if his cards get a bump in value.

2. Vincent Lecavalier 1997-98 Upper Deck Black Diamond - $1.29-$4.99

It’s almost criminal that Enzo’s cards go for so low on eBay.  There are some parallel versions (Triple Diamond) that trade for around $20 or so, but those don’t pop up that often and we don’t consider parallels as true rookie cards here at the Hopeful Chase headquarters (except for the number one card on the list).

I think the relative affordability of Lecavalier’s cards is reflective of being a star in a non-hockey market. To the hockey world outside of “Hockey Paradise” his declining numbers and escalating salary have hit him with the dreaded overrated label and that affects his collectability.  That being said, if had been traded to Montreal the value of his cards would have escalated no matter what his performance would have been.

I’m not even going to offer you a cheaper alternative.  If you can’t spare $1.50 – get off of eBay right now. 

1 .Steven Stamkos 2008-09 Upper Deck The Cup Patch Auto - $1700-1800

This is going to be the first card I go out and purchase once I hit the Powerball.  For those not familiar with “The Cup”, it’s pretty much a product geared toward the 1%.  Four card “boxes” can sell for more than $400 online and even the base cards normally hit the secondary market for more money than I care to spend.

Stamkos’ card is the card to have out of the 2008-09 set. It started off high and never wavered.  As he continues his march to being the most elite goal scorer in the NHL I don’t see it tapering off any time soon.

There are less expensive rookie cards out there to bring into your collection.  His 2008-09 Upper Deck Young Guns goes for about $50 on eBay these days.  As I’ve mentioned before, the Young Guns rookies are pretty good cornerstones for player collections.  If that’s still a little too rich for your blood his 2008-09 Upper Deck MVP card can generally be had for less than $5.  

Should He Stay or Should He Go

A future line for the Bolts (photo from TBO.com)

Decisions, decisions. You see, I'm in the market for a new Lightning jersey. Since they've gone and updated their uniforms as a fan, it is required that I update my wardrobe. Actually, it's not, but I did get me usual jersey signed by Mr. Lecavalier so I can't really wear that one around anymore.

The problem is, other than finances, is that I haven't decided whose jersey I should get. My first inclination is to go with another Lecavalier or perhaps a Stamkos, but my contrarian nature is pushing me away from the masses. While I'd like to be one of the few to rock an Adam Hall jersey, I'd also like a player who has a decent chance of being around for more than one season. So, at this point, I'm leaning towards my latest hockey player crush – Brett Connolly.

That leads to the topic of Connolly's chances of staying with the big club this season. For those not aware, in the NHL, teams have the option of sending first year players of certain age back to their junior team after nine games and not having their salary count against the cap. With an influx of 18 and 19 year old players this year it has been a major talking point for the last few days around the NHL. Winnipeg has already sent their best prospect, Mark Scheifele, back to the Barrie Colts (former home of former Lightning forward Sheldon Keefe!) and Edmonton is mulling over sending down top pick Ryan Nugent-Hopkins as well.

There are benefits to both the player and the team with this arrangement. Let's face it, no matter how good a player is at 18 years old, most of the time they are not physically ready to compete with grown-ass men. Jumping directly from juniors to the NHL is hard, even players that stuck such as Stamkos and Sidney Crosby admit that they weren't ready for the speed of game in the pros.

It is not beneficial for a young player to be scratched three out of every four games or log six minutes a game when they do get a chance to make the lineup. Nor does it do a lot for their confidence to get shoved around the ice by a 4^th line center who happens to outweigh them by 30 pounds on the ice. Better for the youngster to get another year of seasoning at the junior level, and better for the team to not have to pay them the entry level contract.

Finances are important for the team, as is maintaining control of the player as long as possible, but I don't think it's as important as it is in baseball. The hard cap and reasonable arbitration contracts (when they get to that point) make it easier for hockey organizations to retain their young talent than their baseball brethren. Still, teams don't like forking over first round money for a player that is mostly riding the pine.

If you happen to have one of these I'd take it off your hands! (photo from Canadacardworld.com)

Connolly is an interesting case. GM Steve Yzerman has admitted that he is having a tough time deciding if he should retain the services of his young winger. Mr. Yzerman admitted to the St. Pete Times that, "We're a better team with him in the lineup". While the youngster hasn't been lightning up the scoreboard at a Calder Trophy pace he has been effective on the ice. He's notched two assists and has averaged 13:44 minutes on the ice through his first eight games. While that number pales in comparison to the likes of Stamkos (18:57) Martin St Louis (19:31) it is higher than veterans Teddy Purcell (12:42) and Steve Downie (13:22).

The coaching staff is giving him quality ice time. Instead of putting him on a checking line he has spent the majority of his playing time recently on Lecavalier's line. He's also averaging about a minute and a half of power play time a game as well. Those aren't exactly the numbers of someone that is destined for a demotion, especially on a team that is desperate for secondary scoring. Even though its importance as a stat is debatable, it is worth noting that he is second on the team (and tied for first among his fellow rookies) in +/- at a healthy +4.

So if they do keep him, how does the team keep him effective for the entire year? Without a doubt he will hit the proverbial "rookie wall". He has never played more than 65 games in a season and is only two years removed from hip surgery. At a listed 181 lbs. there is no doubt that he is undersized for a NHL forward as well. Banging around in the corners with 230 lb defensemen will take its toll on him over the course of the season.

The team should take caution with his playing time, perhaps putting him on the Stamkos program. For all of his faults as a head coach Rick Tocchet handled Stamkos' rookie season beautifully. One of the more important aspects was the occasional "classroom session". Throughout his rookie season Stamkos was occasionally scratched and sent to the press box to watch the game. Normally seen as a punishment, being a healthy scratch not only allowed the young sniper a chance to rest physically, it also allowed him to see the game from a different aspect.

I think we can all agree it worked out rather well for Stamkos.

The Lightning have enough depth that they can afford to sit Connolly once every four or five games to give him a breather or to regain focus. Coach Boucher is fond of keeping players refreshed anyway so it wouldn't be too much of a stretch to rotate Connolly through the lineup. Despite his rough early play, there is no doubt that Ryan Shannon can step into the lineup and contribute, and the same goes for Tom Pyatt.

From the games I've watched it's apparent that Connolly deserves to stay with the big club (which, of course, means he'll be sent down within moments of me posting this) and with the right handling can be and effective member of the team. Now the only decision remaining is if I should get the road or home jersey.

Post Draft Thoughts

Having a job has it benefits. There’s the money aspect, bill collectors enjoy it when I can actually pay them. It’s also nice to be able to buy food (even if it is ramen noodles and crackers). There is also the often overlooked perk of having somewhere to go for 8-10 hours a day. You may thinking having the entire day to do nothing is awesome while you’re unemployed, but let me tell you, that wears off after about 3 weeks.

One drawback is that it has created absolute havoc it has played on my sports knowledge. I still follow the games, and probably know more than the average fan about the teams I cheer for, but it’s not even close to the level I was at last summer.

Case in point - the NHL draft. Last summer I was all over it. I knew all the rumors, knew all the prospects, even down to the second and third round prospects the Bolts were looking at. This summer, not so much. As a matter of fact once the names dropped beyond Taylor Hall and Tyler Sequin I didn’t know anyone other than Nino Niederreiter. Heck, I didn’t even know much about him other than the fact that his name oozed awesomeness and he was a big scoring forward.

So that’s who I hoped the Lightning would draft. I had even made the effort of adding Niederreiter to my spell-check. Alas, it wasn’t to be. The Islanders, drafting just ahead of Tampa Bay, stole my etymological joy and picked up the big Swiss winger. The sadness quickly passed as I finished my beer (a Goose Island summer ale) and the Lightning were on the clock.

The talking heads said that surely Steve Yzerman’s first pick would be a defenseman. The Lightning need help on defense, Yzerman was born and bred in an organization that preached drafting defense, all signs pointed to defense. Start printing those Cam Fowler jerseys, Reebok.

So, Steve Y strides to the podium and receives a nice round of applause from the Los Angeles crowd. Without much pomp or circumstance he announces that the newest member of the team is right winger Brett Connolly. Well, ok then.

Apparently, young master Connolly is a bit of an enigma. Mock drafts had him as high as 5th and as low as the second round. His junior career so far is full of superlatives. CHL and WHL rookie of the year in 2008-09, first 16-year-old to tally 30 goals in the WHL since Patrick Marleau back in the 90’s, in 85 games for the Prince George Cougars (RAWR!) he had 40 goals and 79 points.

Scouts rave about his natural leadership skills, soft hands and ability to find the net. While he’s not a formidable physical presence, he won’t shy away from contact either. He seems like a perfect fit for a team that struggles to produce two solid lines and a new coach that stresses an up-tempo, pressure game. So why am I not more excited?

Oh yeah, that nagging injury. A hip injury that he suffered last year limited him to only 19 games in 2009-10. For a smooth, skating offensive player, heck for any hockey player, a hip injury can be a dicey proposition. Will it affect his skating? Will it linger on? What if he takes a solid check?

His agent swears that it’s a thing of the past and Connolly is healthy. If he is, then the Lightning might have picked up the steal of the draft. Within minutes of being drafted the talking heads used the “home run or strike out” analogy, twice. If not then he joins a long list of failed number one picks.

Do the Lightning need defense? Yes, but they need NHL ready defense. Veteran leadership, if you will. Fowler or Brandon Gormley will be solid NHL blue-liners, but not next season. Remember the Victor Hedman experience last year? Flashes of brilliance with many, many moments of rookie mistakes. With the goaltender situation still in flux, the Lightning can’t afford that to happen.

So far the Yzerman Era has progressed slowly, deliberately and safely. He hasn’t made any big trades (although it’s always fun to hear the Vinny to the Rangers rumors again) or said anything to indicate he’s going to make a big free agent splash. That’s not a bad thing. While it might keep the team news relegated to the back page, and doesn’t sell season tickets it provides stability to an organization that has desperately missed it.

There is a chance that Connolly, James Wright and Carter Ashton could all make the roster next season. Even Mitch Fadden could get a look this fall. It would mark the first time in a long time that the Bolts could field a team comprised with homegrown talent. Will it be enough to propel them into the playoffs in a suddenly competitive southeastern conference? Time will only tell.