A Recap of the Lightning's Weekend in Buffalo

Free agents were signed! Trades were consummated! Teenagers were drafted!  It was everything that Tampa Bay Lightning fans had hoped for. Yet, at the same time, there was a prevailing sense of incompleteness presiding over the weekend as well.  For all of the action it was the inaction that was the biggest story to come out of the 2016 NHL Draft.  After the dust settled, Steven Stamkos was still part of the team (although possibly in a contractual sense of the word only) and Andrei Vasilevskiy is still the backup goalie.

The big hype during the draft was that Ben Bishop was on the move.  It made sense. There were a couple of teams that needed goalies (Calgary and Dallas), the Lightning needed some cap relief and might be interested in moving up the draft board.  Besides they have a 21-year-old kid ready to assume the starter’s spot.  In the end it was St. Louis who stepped up to the plate and traded away one of their goalies (Brian Elliot) for a minimal return (2nd round pick and conditional 3rd ).

Hopefully if that’s what Calgary offered for Bishop, Mr. Yzerman hung up the phone before Brian Burke finished his sentence.  You would hope a two-time Vezina-nominated goalie would be worth more than a couple of picks, although the rumor that Bishop wanted a  7-year, $49 million extension probably didn’t help things out.  The good news for Mr. Yzerman is that teams will always need goalies and waiting a little longer isn’t going to hurt Bishop’s value (unless he blows out a knee in the World Cup).

Bishop is under contract for one more season. Worst case scenario (barring injury) is that he has another good season and walks away from the team next July. Even in that case, the silver lining is that the Lightning wouldn’t have to protect him in the upcoming expansion draft, leaving them free to keep Vasilevskiy in the fold. I’m not sure what the best case is yet, but it probably involves another team panicking and throwing prospects at Mr. Yzerman.

Someone who is not under contract for another season (at least not yet) is Steven Stamkos.  As the days tick by it looks like the most prolific non-Russian goal-scorer in the league is going to be a free agent.  The draft seemed to be the last chance for the Lightning to announce they re-signed their captain.  After all it’s always nice to announce a big deal when the whole league is together in once place.  Also, it would mark the end of the period where they had exclusive negotiating rights with him.

So when Friday turned into Saturday and the Lightning’s exclusive negotiating window vanished into the Buffalo sky with no deal announced his free agency more or less was open to everyone.  And by everyone, I mean everyone.  While it was once thought that the choice would be Toronto or Tampa, it now seems that every hockey team except for the Cardiff Devils have expressed interest in signing Stamkos (I hope he has unlimited minutes on his cell phone plan…I wonder what carrier he uses?  Has he ever done a cell phone commercial?  I don’t think he has. It seems like one of the superstars of hockey should be advertising for a phone company…which is probably something that the Leafs pointed out to him during their sales pitch).

If I was Stamkos' agent - this is how I answer the phone.

Is it a forgone conclusion that his days in Tampa are over?  I don’t think so.  Stamkos strikes me as the type of guy who likes to have all of the information available before he makes a decision.  So even if he is leaning toward coming back, what does it hurt to hear what other teams have to say?  Besides if a GM or two is going to buy him a free steak over the next week, why not listen?

Unfortunately for Mr. Yzerman, Stamkos’ lack of a decision makes his life a little bit harder.  At this moment he is Schrodinger’s GM.  He is currently having to operate in a status where Stamkos is still with the Lightning and a status where Stamkos is not with the Lightning.  Unfortunately the rest of the NHL does not, and will not, wait for the pale-skinned blonde from Markham to figure who is going to give him millions of dollars.

So Mr. Yzerman is stuck trying to continue fill the needs of two very different teams.  A Lightning team with Stamkos needs minor tinkering.  Some help on the blue line, maybe a possession forward who can win face-offs, and little salary cap space to make those moves.  A team without Stamkos needs the same things and a way to fill a 35-40 goal offensive void.  Granted, there is a at least $7.5 million more in cap space to deal with, but replacing that type of offense requires more than a snap of the fingers.

In the meantime Mr. Yzerman does still have other things to worry about like pending restricted free agents and a winger with a broken hip.  He also has to mend the ego of a starting goaltender who was thrown out as trade bait for 48 hours.  While I’m sure Bishop understands the business side, it’s still a shot to the ego to be dangled out in front of other teams.

He did clear up some paperwork on Monday by making offers to seven of those pending restricted free agents. Only David Broll was left out.  While this doesn’t automatically mean the Lightning will re-sign all of them it does give them right of first refusal or draft pick compensation should some team come sniffing around with an offer sheet.  It buys him some time (like, until Stamkos makes up his mind) to figure out what kind of long term contracts he can work out with Alex Killorn and Nikita Kucherov.

As for players he’s already taken care of, Luke Witkowski picked up a one year contract while JT Brown and Cedric Paquette inked two year deals.  Brown was a good signing as he as emerged as an important shut-down forward for the Lightning.  His speed and fore checking can be quite disruptive to other teams (now if he can just learn to put the puck in the net).  Witkowski is depth on the blueline and a possible captain for Syracuse.  Paquette, whose cousin Chris was drafted by the Lightning this weekend, struggled against the Penguins but also fills a needed role in the bottom six.

After wrapping up those deals the draft was probably the easiest thing Mr. Yzerman had to deal with over the last couple of months.  He made it quite clear that current events don’t dictate who he picks in a draft. After all, by the time these kids are ready who knows what the team will look like. In all the Lightning drafted 10 players (1 goalie, 2 defensemen and 7 forwards).

Surprisingly Mr. Yzerman didn’t trade down from his first round pick or trade one of his extra second round picks.  In a move that stunned a lot of the Lightning faithful he actually traded for another second round pick.  The price for that pick was Anthony DeAngelo, the former first round pick who was slated to spend another season in Syracuse before being considered a part of the Lightning’s blueline in the future.

St. Pete Times beat writer Joe Smith intimated that DeAngelo might have requested a move to get a fresh start with a new organization.  If it was then, Jonathan Drouin, this is how you request a trade without embarrassing your GM and organization.  If he didn’t make the request then perhaps Mr. Yzerman and his staff didn’t see DeAngelo’s game progressing the way they would like it.

You can say a lot of things about Mr. Yzerman, but one thing he does well is cut the right young players loose. Have any of the young players that he has traded come back to haunt the Lightning?  If Brett Connolly could stay healthy maybe he would be the exception.

Speaking of Brett’s, the Lightning selected Brett Howden from Moose Jaw of the Western Hockey League.  Howden is the definition of a safe pick.  He has size (6’2”) and was projected to be a late first round, early second round pick. He plays a two-way game (how Coach Cooper-y!) with his offense coming from hard work in front of the net. He might not have the most skill or speed (something his critics are lamenting) but he isn’t going to burn you with bad plays either.

His contributions to the Lightning are years away though.  The curse of a competitive team is that draft picks rarely vault straight to the big club.  In all likelihood it is back to the WHL for another year and then some time helping Syracuse rebuild as a contender.

I commented to Link that I’m not sure that I’ve ever seen a fan base slightly disappointed that their number one goalie and number one scorer weren’t traded in the same weekend, but that’s the feeling I got from some of the Lightning fans on Twitter.  The thought of Stamkos walking “for nothing” really seems to be stuck in their craw.

My philosophy is that what we “got” was four seasons of Steven Stamkos.  We didn’t get three or three and a half seasons of him and some assets in a trade.  Nor did we “get” pennies on the dollar by trading him at the draft.  What we also have is a shot to re-sign him.  If Mr. Yzerman had traded him away, his days in Tampa were most assuredly over.  Now, for at least the next week or so the door is still open for him to come back.  Will he walk through that door?

Lightning Card of the Week - Ryan Callahan 2015-16 MVP Green Parallel

2015-16 Upper Deck MVP Green Parallel Ryan Callahan

Welcome back to a semi-regular series on The Hopeful Chase – the Lightning Card of the Week. For this week it's everyone's favorite check-throwing forward, Ryan Callahan.

Callahan made the news yesterday when it was noted that he had successful surgery to repair a labral tear in his left hip. According to Joe Smith of the Tampa Bay Times, the well-paid forward had been struggling with the injury for most of the second half of the season and the playoffs.

After five minutes of research on labral hip surgery I feel a little better about his recovery and this not being the degenerative type of hip issues that has sidelined Bo Jackson and Albert Belle. As a fan I don't like hearing a player that is having issues with their hips, their backs or their feet. Those are three problem areas that never seem to get better.

However, it seems like this surgery involves repairing cartilage around the hip area. With a rehab time frame of 4-5 months Callahan should be back on the ice sometime around November. Will he be able to continue to play the same type of crash test dummy, aggressive forechecking style that fans love? That is the big question.

While the condition itself isn't anymore degenerative than pulling a hamstring or breaking a leg, it is something that can reoccur if you keep smashing your hip into other players and the boards. Think of a pitcher who tears the labrum in his shoulder. Surgery fixes it, but the very act of throwing a baseball could lead to it tearing again. The very act of Ryan Callahan being Ryan Callahan could lead to him doing more damage to his hip.

With him under contract for another four seasons that could be a bit of concern for Lightning fans. If Callahan can't play his style of hockey, is he any good for the team? He has been surprisingly durable for the Lightning having played in more than 70 games in consecutive seasons for the first time since 2008-09 and 2009-10. He did chip in 24 goals in 2014-15, but fell off scoring only 10 last season. Of course, playing with a painful hip could be a reason he had the lowest goal output of his NHL career.

I think he can find a role with the team as a defensive forward who chips in 15-20 goals a year while slowing down the opposition's top line. I don't think he can ever stop being who he is and it will lead to more injuries along the same lines as his hip issue. That was one of the drawbacks of the long term, big-money deal he signed. When you have a player that throws his body around the ice game in and game out there is a chance the damage is going to catch up with him and cause his career to crater quickly.

The green parallel of last year's MVP set are available online only. Through Upper Deck's e-pack site you can purchase or trade packs of MVP cards. If you acquire 20 of one particular card you can merge them together for the exclusive green parallel. So far I've been able to trade for Callahan and Ben Bishop. I just had them sent to me and they do look pretty nice in person.

Cut The Check? Should the Lightning Buy Out Valtteri Filppula

Let’s get two things out of the way before we dive into this post:

1. I liked the Valtteri Filppula deal when it was signed.  Liked, didn’t love.  It was a year too long and a million dollars too much, but the Lightning were signing a creative, veteran playmaker who played responsible hockey and would slot into a top-six position.

2. I don’t like teams buying out contracts.  Done incorrectly it can lead to roster-strangling dead cap space and an endless cycle of overpaying (because, hey you can always buy him out when it goes sideways) for free agents. It might seem like small change, but it can add up.  Buying one player out at $1.7 million and then another at $2 million and then things escalate quickly.  Before you know it you have $4-5 million wrapped up in dead money.

Keeping those two things in mind,  I think the Lightning buying out Valtteri Filppula isn’t the worse thing in the world.  The Finnish forward with the filthy hands is owed $10 million over the next two years.  According to General Fanager if Tampa Bay buys him out before the window ends on June 30th they will save $3.34 million this season and next.  Of course, there are consequences.  For the following two seasons (2018-19 and 2019-20) they will take a $1.67 million cap hit.

Probably not his finest Lightning memory.

Three-and-a-third million dollars is a lot of money to play with on a roster that has a lot of young talent looking for raises.  Wouldn’t it be better to spend some of that money on locking up Nikita Kucherov and his consistent goalscoring as opposed to Filppula and his diminishing flashes of puck-handling brilliance?

I think Filppula has taken a lot of unwarranted flack over the past few seasons, but I’m also aware that he is a 32-year-old forward whose offensive numbers have been declining over the last three seasons. It’s getting harder and harder to justify rolling him out there for 18-20 minutes a game.

In the playoff run this season which forward led the team in ice time?

A: Kucherov with his 11 goals in 17 games?
B. The young Jonathan Drouin and his breakout performance?
C. The steady Tyler Johnson who quietly put up a point a game during the postseason.

The answer to this obviously leading question is - none of the above.

Filppula led all forwards with 20:45 of ice time throughout the playoffs.  Part of that could be explained by the fact that he won 52% of the faceoffs he had.  Coach Cooper threw him out there at the end of games, short-handed and every other time he had an important face-off. Those minutes rack up when you’re doing it game after game.

He did a decent job against the Red Wings and Islanders top lines.

He wasn’t actually that bad in the playoffs (at least until the Pittsburgh series).  He did put up 7 points overall, but against the Penguins his most glaring deficiency was exposed - he just isn’t fast anymore.  Watching him carry the puck into the offensive zone was like watching Jonathan Drouin in slow-motion.  The moves were there, the slick puck-handling was there, it was just at a slower pace.  Even if he was in the zone with numbers, the high-energy Penguins were able to chase him down.

Despite his lack of foot speed it is obvious that he is a player that Coach Cooper trusts.  He is somewhat responsible in the defensive zone and can (at least theoretically) generate offense.  Over at Raw Charge, loserpoints is reviewing the team with a slant towards enhanced stats.  Those numbers place Filppula place just off-center and the writer sums up his season simply saying, “Valtteri Filppula is declining as would be expected of a player his age”.  So…yeah.

Barring injury to other players he is not cracking the top-six next season.  With the Triplets coming back, Alex Killorn, Jonathan Drouin and (hopefully) an extremely rich Steven Stamkos filling out the top of the roster, at best Filppula is going to be looking at another year as a third-line center.

Do the Lightning have someone on the roster that can replace Filppula?  After all, if he’s bought out, someone has to fill that spot. It could be Jonathan Marchessault.  The 25-year-old center is an unrestricted free agent, but could be brought back at a reasonable (under $2 million) salary.  While he doesn’t have the same offensive promise that Filppula brings to the table, he wouldn’t be a total train wreck playing 15 minutes a game.

Also, it might open a spot on the roster for a young player in the organization like Adam Erne or Yanni Goude.  Also, while the free agent market might not be deep, there are third-line forwards available at reasonable prices (P.A. Parenteau maybe?)

Something else to think about that could affect the team a little farther down the road is that Filppula has a no-movement clause in his contract and is signed through the 2017-18 season which means the Lightning would have to protect him in the Las Vegas expansion draft.  Wouldn’t you rather protect Vlad Namestnikov or JT Brown instead of Filppula?

So I just spent a page and a half laying out a case for buying him out.  Should Mr. Yzerman cut him a check and wish him well?  Yes, but after next season.

I think they can get one more serviceable season out of him without handicapping the team out of contention.  Mr. Yzerman should be able to get all of his business done with Stamkos and his restricted free agents and still stay under the cap.  He can then apply the cap savings to Victor Hedman’s extension (let’s start putting the positive vibes out there now) and longer term deals for Johnson and Ondrej Palat.

The Lightning GM has played the buyout game pretty well so far. The only contracts he has bought out have been Vincent Lecavalier and Ryan Malone, both of them were compliance buyouts that didn’t count against the salary cap. He did retain some salary when the Lightning flipped Sam Gagner to the Coyotes for a 6th round pick.  That salary, as well as the cap hit from Vlacav Prospal’s buyout (done under the Brian Lawton regime) fell off this season.

Thirty-one points from a center that can win faceoffs and kill penalties isn’t the worst thing in the world. He has been relatively healthy over his Lightning career (something that was a bit of a worrying point when he signed the deal) and can still contribute.

So don’t trade in those “51” jerseys just yet.

I will miss those platinum locks when he's gone.

Trading Time - Bringing in Some New Cards

Sometimes I set goals just so that I can't meet them and then feel somewhat crappy about it (trade 5,000 cards in a year). Other times I set goals that are easy to meet so that I can feel good about it (create a list of things to do that starts with “create a list”). Most of the times I pick something in the middle.

This summer I'm looking to crack 100 trades on Zistle. I started at 79 so it's not inconceivable that I can knock out 20 over the next couple of months. In fact, in the span of about 2 weeks I've completed 4. Let's look at trade number 83:

I reached out to user Sdre31 looking to unload some extra 2015 Topps base cards I had sitting around. In exchange he sent the following:

2000 Topps Will Clark

Yes, Will the Thrill played parts of two seasons with the Birds. Over 156 games he hit .302 with 19 home runs. I really enjoyed the Topps 2000 set. It was simple yet effective.

2010 Topps Randy Wells and 2010 St. Louis Cardinals

Two more base cards for a set I have a looooong way to go before completing. As in, almost the entire series two portion. Not sure why I choose this set to complete as I really don't care for it that much.

1989 Topps Joe Orsulak

That's right, another Smokin' Joe O card. A somewhat interesting note about this card. The action portion shows Orsulak wearing the 1988 uniform with the cartoon bird on the helmet. The superimposed head shot is of him wearing the ornithological correct bird which was introduced in 1989. I was never a fan of that hat.

2008 Upper Deck Documentary Orioles Cards

Perhaps one of the most ambitious sets ever created. The 2008 Documentary set totaled 4,890 cards. Each team had 163 cards depicting each game they played in 2008. That was not the best year to document the O's as they finished 5^th in the AL East with a record of 68-93. The best thing that happened in 2008 happened before the season started when they dealt Erik Bedard to the Mariners for Adam Jones, George Sherrill, Chris Tillman (forgot he was in the trade), Tony Butler and Kam Mickolio in what has to be the greatest non-Frank Robinson trade in club history.

The cards I received kind of play out the fact that they weren't that good. Of the 5 cads, 4 of them documented losses:

Game 84 –5-2 Win against the Royals. Danial Cabrera with the complete game win! So why is Jeremy Guthrie pictured?  Who knows?  That was part of the fun of the set.  The cards didn't always match the games described.

Game 85 – 10-7 Loss to the Royals. Who gave up those 10 runs? Why it was Garret Olson, Adam Loewen (actually pictured on the card), Chad Bradford, Lance Cormier and Fernando Cabrera. Look the O's pitching staff has been a disaster for years!

Game 98 – 5-1 loss to the Tigers. Justin Verlander scattered 3 hits in working 8.2 innings against the O's. Nick Markakis did not get one of those hits (but someone named Guillermo Quiroz did).  When you talk about the doldrums of the major league season, this is the type of game you're referring to as the teams went into the game with matching 48-49 records and well out of the playoff hunt.

Game 103- 6-5 Loss to the Los Angeles Angels. Look it's Melvin Mora! Mora played a decade in Baltimore. Over those 1,256 games he hit .280 with 158 home runs. He really was a solid player for some very bad teams. In 2015 he was inducted into the team's Hall of Fame.  Well deserved I think.

Game 140- 11-2 Loss to Athletics. Adam Jones is pictured with the caption “Rookie is one of few bright spots for the Orioles”. On the back of the card the rookie referenced is – Lou Montanez! A month earlier Montanez had hit a home run in his major league debut

There was some actual talk of Montanez being a prospect for the team based on his play at the end of 2008. Sadly he was never able to duplicate the success and after two more seasons with the O's organization he signed as a free agent with the Chicago Cubs. He spent the 2011 season in the Windy City and hasn't been seen in the majors since.

Thanks for the trade!

Some Thoughts on the Upcoming Draft

The finals are trickling down to NBC’s preferred money shot of Sidney Crosby raising the Stanley Cup over his head one more time.  Once that happens (which should be sometime in the next three weeks based on the Finals scheduling) it’s time to truly look at the off-season. And what an off-season it will be for the Lightning!  Between free agents, dwindling salary cap space, a possible expansion draft and a couple of restricted free agents that other teams may actually tender a contract to, Steve Yzerman isn’t going to be spending too much time on a golf course this summer.

 First up, live from the First Niagara Center in beautiful Buffalo, New York, the 2016 NHL Entry Draft.  Not only is it the day that hundreds of young Canadians realize their lifelong dream of getting drafted by a NHL team, it’s also one of the last moments for General Managers to meet in one room and talk about swapping each others bad contracts.

If things hold as they are now the Tampa Bay Lightning will be drafting 27th, just after the Washington Capitals and before the St. Louis Blues.  The downside of a successful team is that it’s kind of hard to get excited about the draft. Really, the only thing that I’m looking forward to is if anyone drafted shakes up BoltProspects rankings.

They will most likely draft a kid that will spend at least one more year in junior hockey and then spend a year or two in Syracuse (or maybe Kalamazoo!). By the time they’re ready to crack the NHL squad who knows what the team will look like? Steven Stamkos could be enjoying his third season of missing the playoffs with Toronto.  Nikita Kucherov could be earning tens of millions of mob-related money in the KHL.  Ben Bishop could be backstopping the Las Vegas Aces to the Stanley Cup Finals.

Draft = NHL Combine = Awesome Photos like this. #NeverForget

That’s why, more than any other league, teams should draft the best available player, not for any special needs.  Yes, the Lightning might be light on defensemen in the system right now, but will they be in three years?  Who knows?  Take the best talent and let the cards fall as they may.

Would Mr. Yzerman be tempted to leap up in the draft this year?  He has more reason this year than any other during his regime.  Losing Steven Stamkos in free agency would leave a glaring hole in the top six and he has a pretty lucrative trade chip in his pocket in Jonathan Drouin.  Edmonton is known to be interested in moving down from their spot at number four in the draft.  Would they take the talented, but mercurial Drouin for that spot?  Would Matthew Tkachuk, Alex Nylander or Jesse Puljujarvi be worth it to the Lightning?

In all likelihood Mr. Yzerman will not trade up. In fact, he is more likely to trade down like he did last year. If it looks like their player is going to be available in the second round why not trade down and pick up a couple of assets?  In order to do that, I think he would have to work out a deal with someone who has a top five pick in the second round.  If you look at last season they traded out of the 28th spot for two second round picks.  They then used one of those picks to take Mitchell Stephens third in the second round.  In essence they moved down 5 spots.

Could they have drafted Stephens in the first round?  Of course, but then they wouldn’t have picked up an extra second round draft pick.  Mr. Yzerman likes to acquire assets and if he can get the player he wants AND an extra draft pick, chances are he’s going to do it.

The Lightning have held the 27th pick once before during the Yzerman Era.  In 2011 they drafted a young Russian who had been playing in the OHL by the name of Vladislav Namestnikov.  He was the first of three Russians drafted by Mr. Yzerman that year being followed by Nikita Kucherov and Nikita Nesterov.  Oh and he rounded off his day by drafting a Czech kid by the name of Ondrej Palat in the 7th round in what might have been the best draft in team history.

Somehow he looks older in this draft photothan he does now. #RussianBieber

If he does decide to keep the pick, who are they going to draft?  I don’t really know. Once you get past Auston Matthews and Patrik Laine I have no idea how good the rest of the draft is.  So to get a gauge on how the Lightning might go I went to the internet and delved into the wonderful world of mock drafts or as I like to say - it's all a lot of simple tricks and nonsense.

Kid, I've seen drafts from all over the galaxy and there is no way Yzerman is trading up.

Let’s take a look at what some of the sites had to say about who the Lightning might draft:

Allen Mitchell - The Bleacher Report

Nathan Bastian - C/RW Mississauga Steelheads

 A 6’4” 200 lb forward who is a two-way forward?  Well that sounds intriguing.  While he might not light up the scoreboard he sounds like the responsible sort of player that would thrive under Coach Cooper.  A question mark could be his size.  He is one of the bigger forwards in the OHL and uses his size to gain control of the puck.  Will that skill transfer to the NHL when he’s battling people his own size or bigger?

Adam Kimelman - NHL.com

Vitaly Abramov - Gatineau Olympiques

Russian - check
Undersized - check
Pretty good skill set - check
Sounds like a dream pick for Mr. Yzerman.  A fast skater with a good shot is always worthy of a first round pick.  If he’s available at 27 I think it would be hard for the Lightning to say no.

Consensus - My NHL Draft

Samuel Girard - Shawinigan Cataractes

Keeping with the undersized theme, but switching from offense to defense, Girard is a puck moving defenseman with strong skating skills and “excellent vision”.  At 5’10” he won’t tower over opponents like the rest of the Lightning’s blue liners several report mention his “strong lower” body and willingness to play the body.  After another season of watching the Lightning struggle to pass it out of the defensive zone it would be nice to see someone other than Victor Hedman who can actually skate it out.

Bill Placzek - Draftsite.com

Pascal Laberge - Victoriaville Tigers

Laberge sounds like a more traditional offensive player with decent size, shifty skills and an elusive shot. When reading scouting reports the usual draft clichés seem to apply - needs to get stronger, needs to be more responsible in his own end.  His ability to make plays and willingness to get in the corners to dig out pucks could make him an intriguing pick up.  A high-skill grinder could fit in well if paired up with a pure-goal scoring sniper.

Craig Button - TSN

Will Bitten - Flint Firebirds

Another under-6’ tall center who plays a strong two-way game.  It seems that the prognosticators thing Mr. Yzerman has a type of player he likes.  I do enjoy hearing the term “tenacious” when describing a forward playing defense, but do you take someone who sounds like a 3rd line center with a first round, even if it’s late in the first round, pick?  He sounds like someone who will be available in the second round.

It looks like there is absolutely zero consensus on who the Lightning will pick at 27.  Which is normal for a pick that late in the draft.  I’m sure the organization itself is still hammering out their final short list of players that they want.  Personally I would think they lean towards picking up an offensive player in the first round as there seems to be a deeper well of talent than for blue liners.