The first weekend in May is not a bad time to be a sports
fan. Baseball is in full swing, hockey
and basketball have their playoffs underway and Louisville plays host to a
little horse race called the Kentucky Derby. Over the past few years it’s also
become the weekend Floyd Mayweather, Jr. brings his flash and bombast to Las
Vegas. In 2007 he beat Oscar De La Hoya,
in 2009 it was a washed up Shane Mosley and last year it was Miguel Cotto’s
turn to play the antagonist. This year
Robert “The Ghost” Guerrero is the lucky challenger for Floyd’s “May Day”
party.
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| I don't think Guerrero is stong enough to beat Floyd this way. |
Guerrero brings a good enough story to the ring. Like
Mayweather he keeps the sport inside of the family. In Guerrero’s case it’s his father Ruben
serves as his trainer in the ring and as his hype machine outside of it. There is also Guerrero’s wife Casey, whose
battle with leukemia garners almost as much press as his in the ring
accomplishments.
While storylines are nice (and it didn’t take Showtime long
to cast Guerrero as the hard-working, school-visiting family man and Mayweather
as the money-flashing, theater-renting-out superstar in their “All Access”
promotional show) what happens in the ring is really what matters. Not surprisingly, the devout Guerrero has already cast
himself as David to Mayweather’s Goliath. Does the southpaw, who is relatively unknown outside of the boxing world, have what it takes to become the first man to beat Mayweather in the ring?
It would be nice to say yes, but in all likelihood Guerrero
will end up as notch number 44 on Mayweather’s march to immortality. That isn’t to say that there aren’t things to
like about the southpaw’s ability as a boxer.
He works well off of his jab, uses both hands and does an excellent job
of making contact with his punches.
Watching him throw endless jabs-straight lefts- right hooks against
Vincente Escobedo in 2010 was a joy to watch.
As was his early round pummeling of Andre Berto in 2012 (the victory
that let him even be in the conversation to be Mayweather’s opponent) showed
that he has the power to knock anybody down.
Still….he seems to be a good fighter, heck a really good
fighter, but not a great fighter. And
even as Mayweather enters the twilight of his career, it will take a great
fighter to beat him. Guerrero strings
his punches together well, but his handspeed isn’t great. He may have earned the moniker “Ghost” for
being elusive in the ring, but that didn’t stop a nearly blind Berto from
strafing him with big shots at the end of their fight.
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| Yup, that's a damn near blind fighter drilling The Ghost in the face. |
Mayweather feasts on his opponents’ weaknesses and Guerrero’s
tendency to drop his left hand when he jabs is going to be an opening that the
current pound-for-pound best fighter in the world is going to exploit at every
opportunity. So the same goes for Guerrero’s habit of backing up stiff-legged
from pressure.
This fight, however, isn’t about how good Guerrero can box.
The contest on Saturday is going to be between Mayweather and the effects of time. He is 36-years-old now. His last fight, a
year ago against Miguel Cotto, left him marked up in a way he had never been
before. It seems he is resigned to the fact that the six-fight deal he signed
with Showtime will mark the end of his boxing career. Figuring he fights twice a year (once in May
and once in November) he will be out of the boxing game by the time he turns
40. Which isn’t a bad thing for a fighter who relies primarily on speed and
elusiveness to win fights.
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| A result of Floyd slowing down or having Bieber in his corner? Discuss. |
This is also his first fight after spending a little over
two months in jail for a misdemeanor domestic battery charge. Will the time spent in jail, away from his
family, away from his daily routine and the fame he craves have a negative
effect on him? Probably not as much as it would other fighters. The year off between fights isn’t even the longest
sabbatical for him. His first “retirement” in 2008 caused a layoff of 20 months
which didn’t prevent him from dominating Juan Manuel Marquez upon his return.
The footage on “All Access” seems to support his claims that
he is in better shape now than he was for last year’s Cotto fight. There is
scene of Mayweather heading to the gym at 1am for his third workout of the day
(followed by a Taco Bell run). He also talks about “overtraining” for the Cotto
fight and being more “rested” for this fight. Only in boxing would three intense
workout sessions be considered a more relaxing way to approach a big moment.
The long held wisdom for beating Mayweather has been to
crowd him, bully him and turn it into a street fight. As Floyd is keen to point out 43 people have
tried that already and 43 have failed.
For Guerrero to win this fight he has to be willing to be patient and
make Mayweather attack him. While it won’t
make for dynamic television and will elicit more than a few boos from the crowd
it’s the smartest way to attack Mayweather.
If Guerrero insists on moving straight in and bombarding him with
punches he will end up on the canvas. He
should work his jab, score point and get Mayweather out of his rhythm. It’s no
secret that Mayweather is content to win a fight on points – his critics call
it running while his supporters claim elusiveness. Whatever it is, it has been effective for
more than two decades for the multiple-belt winning champion.
Can his 36-year-old legs keep up over 12 rounds or will the
Ghost be able to track him down? Can
Guerrero resist the urge to mix it up with someone who is faster and better and
boxing then he is? Well, that’s why people pay to see the fight even when the
favorite is 7-1 in Vegas.
