A Season in Review - How I did in Predicting the Ravens

That's a Super Bowl Level Mustache - photo from Baltimore Sun

Alright, it looks like we might be a little football heavy on this here weblog for the next couple of weeks.  I don’t write about it much because, quite frankly, it’s the one sport I enjoy more as a casual observer then as a writer/analyzer.  I’m not quite at the point of drinking the purple kool-aid (just the jungle juice) and donning purple zubazs yet, but of all the teams I follow I am most unabashedly a fan first.

That being said, I did try to take an analytical look at theRavens schedule before the season to try and predict how they would finish.  My prediction was close, 10-6, vs. their actual record of 12-4. I thought it would be spot on, after all MGM had them pegged as a 10 win team as well.  However, the game-by-game guessing was wildly inaccurate; to the point of my dad taking the time to email me and make fun of me.  He’s also threatened to sign up as a commenter just so he can make fun of me in public.  Thanks for reading, Pops!  Enjoy Hawaii!

As is my policy, anytime I make predictions I follow up on them to see how I did.  Unlike the talking heads on TV I accept accountability for my prognostications and will suffer the consequences when I do poorly (as is often the case).  So here we go:

 Week  1 vs. Pittsburgh

My prediction – Ravens Could Lose

Reason – “I think Pittsburgh is a better team than Baltimore this year”

Outcome – Yeah, missed the boat on this one. The Ravens forced 7 turnovers and cruised to a 35-7 victory that I didn’t get to see thanks to a Direct TV problem at the bar.

Prediction record – 0-1

Week 2 at Tennessee

My prediction – Ravens Should Win

Reason – “Ravens should be able to shut down Chris Johnson and put the game in Matt Hasslebeck’s hands.”

Outcome – They shut Johnson down holding him to only 53 yards rushing, but Hasselbeck torched them for 358 yards and Rod Bironas kicked 4 field goals to lead the Titans to a 26-13 victory that I also didn’t see because the folks at Goose Island in Wrigleyville kept switching the game off.

Prediction record – 0-2

Week 3 at St. Louis

My prediction – Games We Don’t Know What Will Happen

Reason – “Stephen Jackson is a legitimate offensive threat and their defense should be better than people think”

Outcome – The coming out party for rookie Torrey Smith. The wide receiver has 3 touchdown receptions in the first quarter and the Ravens rolled to a franchise record 553 yards of offense.  I’m giving myself a win here since I thought they would win 2 of the 3 mystery games.

Prediction record 1-2

Week 4 vs. New York Jets

My Prediction – Ravens Could Lose

Reason – “There is no way Mark Sanchez has a big game against Baltimore, but I think bad penalties and a lack of discipline will be the difference as the Jets win 10-9”

Outcome – The defense scores 3 times and leads the team to a 34-17 victory. Hey at least I knew that Sanchez would struggle.

Prediction record - 1-3 

Bye Week – Push! 

Week 6 vs. Houston

My Prediction – Games We Don’t Know What Will Happen

Reason – “If Arian Foster and Andre Johnson stay healthy the middle of October could be a shoot-out.”

Outcome – Johnson was hurt and the Ravens outplayed the Texans down the stretch for a 29-14 victory. Joe Flacco threw for over 300 yards and Billy Cundiff kicked five field goals.

Prediction record – 2-3

Week 7 at Jacksonville

My Prediction – Ravens Should Win

Reason – “The one game on the schedule that the Ravens should be double digits and actually cover”

Outcome – I created a new gambling rule – never bet on the Ravens when they’re favored by more than 10 points.  Jacksonville took away Ray Rice as a check down option for Flacco and stymied the Ravens offense.  The Jaguars had their highlight for the season as they won in primetime 12-7.

Prediction record – 2-4

Week 8 vs. Arizona

My Prediction – Ravens Should Win

Reason – “If the Ravens get pressure on him (Kevin Kolb) they should be able to force mistakes.”

Outcome – The Ravens had to come back from 21 points down in the second half to win, but they did it. This is the game where they decided to add the “throw it deep in the endzone and hope for a flag” play to the playbook. It actually worked twice and led to two easy Ray Rice touchdowns. Flacco threw the ball a career-high 51 times in the 30-27 win.

Prediction record – 3-4

Week 9 at Pittsburgh

My Prediction – Ravens Could Lose

Reason – “The pressure will be on Flacco and so far in his career pressure games haven’t been his forte.”

Outcome – For once it was the Ravens winning in the last minute as Joe hit Torrey Smith for a 26-yard touchdown to win the game 23-20 with eight seconds left on the clock. I had labeled it a must win game if the Ravens wanted to win the AFC North and in the end it proved to be the difference as the two teams finished the season with identical records but the Ravens with the tie-breaker edge.

Prediction record – 3-5

Week 10 at Seattle

My Prediction – Ravens Should Win

Reason – “Tavaris Jackson”

Outcome – Marshawn Lynch (who I had cut from my fantasy team due to lack of production) had a combined 167 yards of offense and the Ravens turned the ball over 3 times in the 22-17 loss.

Prediction record – 3-6

Week 11 vs. Cincinnati

My Prediction – Ravens Should Win

Reason – “The Ravens should be able to shut down the running game and feast on the rookie quarterback (Andy Dalton).”

Outcome – Baltimore held off a fourth quarter comeback by the feisty Bengals to cling to a 31-24 win.  Torrey Smith was a factor again with 165 yards receiving while the defense forced 3 second-half turnovers by Dalton (2 picks and a fumble).

Prediction Record – 4-6

Week 12 vs. San Francisco

My Prediction – Ravens Should Win

Reason – No real reason given, just implied the 49’s would be bad.

Outcome- I was at this game!  Yea!  Oh, and the Ravens won 16-6 by dominating on defense and doing just enough on offense to win.  Who cares? I was there!

Prediction Record – 5-6

Week 13 at Cleveland

My Prediction – Ravens Should Win

Reason – “The Ravens won’t light up the scoreboard, but should score enough to win.”

Outcome – Ray Rice runs for over 200 yards and the Ravens coast to a 24-10 victory. Lardarius Webb runs a punt back for Baltimore as well, a bright spot in the season for the much maligned special teams unit.

Prediction record – 6-6

Ed Dixon uses the Force to make a catch - AP/Nick Wass

Week 14 vs. Indianapolis

My Prediction – Games We Don’t Know What Will Happen

Reason – “Much like Roethisberger he (Peyton Manning) has the Ravens number in head-to-head matchups.”

Outcome – To my credit, when I made this prediction there was still talk of Manning playing at the end of the season.   Curtis Painter was no match for the Ravens defense and Ray Rice ran for over 100 yards in the 24-10 victory. I’ll take the loss on this one since I didn’t have the stones to make a real prediction.

Prediction record – 6-7

Week 15 at San Diego

My Prediction – Ravens Could Lose

Reason – “From Phil Rivers ability to rack up passing yardage to the Ravens having to go to the west coast, it all adds up to a loss.”

Outcome:  I pretty much nailed this one.  The Chargers picked on rookie Jimmy Smith and racked up 270 passing yards to take the 34-14 win.  The Ravens weren’t able to get any pressure on Rivers as the Chargers looked way too comfortable in winning the game.

Prediction record – 7-7

Week 16 vs. Cleveland

My Prediction – Ravens Should Win

Reason – “The air is cold, the stockings are hung and the Browns still suck.”

Outcome – Baltimore built a 17-0 halftime lead and held on to a 20-14 win. They sealed the win by drawing the Browns off-sides on a 4^th-and-2 play with two minutes to go in the game.  It wasn’t a pretty game, but it locked up Baltimore’s first undefeated season at home.

Prediction Record – 8-7

Ray Rice don't need no help! photo from AP

Week 17 at Cincinnati

My Prediction – Ravens Should Win

Reason – “The Bengals will be playing for Andrew Luck and not much else.”

Outcome – Ray Rice had an early 70-yard touchdown run and the Ravens turned a late fumble by Cincinnati into another Rice touchdown to produce a 24-16 win.  The Bengals did have a chance of making the playoffs had they won, so I was a little off on the Luck prediction. 

Prediction Record – 9-7

There ya go.  An extremely uneven season for the Ravens that led to an AFC North title, a first round bye and the first home playoff games since the 2006 season (in which they were also the2nd seed). Are they built for a long playoff run?  That is the million dollar question right now.  If they win their game next week then chances are they would have to go on the road to face the Patriots, and I’m not sure Flacco has the arm to win that shoot-out. 

But more on the playoffs as the days roll on.

Season Preview Part III Let's Wrap This Up

To celebrate the Lightning's 3-0 start we'll wrap up the season preview with the third and final installment.

For Parts I and II go here:

Part One

Part Two



You Got Your Hug Now Go Earn Your Paycheck




Let’s make no mistake. I am a huge Vincent Lecavalier fan. I’ve made that clear on several occasions. I think he is by far the most talented player on the team, and in his aloof way the bell weather of the team. That’s not to say he isn’t without his faults. By no means should a captain ever have the term “aloof” attached to his name, not even by amateur bloggers with grammar issues.

If he was your girlfriend your friends would definitely refer to him as “high maintenance”. He is prone to confidence problems and can come off as disinterested during games in which he isn’t effective. His detractors claim that he quits on the team when things aren’t going well or that he doesn’t deserve the “C” on his shoulder because he’s not a leader.

What we should remember is that fans aren’t in the locker room. We aren’t on the bus rides or plane rides. Despite having unparalleled direct access to players through Twitter, Facebook, blogs and never satisfied traditional media we still don’t know what’s going on inside the locker room.

Coaches, GM’s and owners have come and gone, but the center from Ile Bizzard is still in the black and blue. And he’s still captain. If there was ever a chance to sweep the slate clean and appoint a new captain for the team it’s when you bring in a new GM, owner and coach. Yet Vinny still wears the “C”.

Why? Well, why not? If the players had a problem with it they would have addressed it by now. Perhaps, behind closed doors, Lecavalier is more of a leader than he lets on. Perhaps his bland quotes to the media and quiet persona mask an extremely driven man who has earned the respect of his players. Think of all of the players that have cycled through the Lightning organization during his tenure. How many of them have said bad things about him? I couldn’t find any quotes.

Now with all of that being said (the writers equivalent of “with all due respect”) Vincent has to perform on the ice. He is the highest paid player in the league. Let that sink in for a second. It’s not Sidney Crosby, Alex Ovechkin or Marty Brodeur - it’s Vincent Lecavalier. He of the back to back underachieving seasons.

For $10 million the Lightning are going to need him to step up in the scoring department. Seventy points is not acceptable for that type of money. Does he have to score 50 goals? Not necessarily. However, if he doesn’t put the puck in the net he better be helping his linemates do it.

In the past the Lightning have struggled to fill two lines. Moving wingers from one line to another always weakened the other. This year it shouldn’t be the case. All six members have the ability to score 25+ goals. Shuffling them back and forth won’t allow other teams to focus on one line; and that means Vincent should be happy.

I don’t think that it’s a coincidence that the big name player brought in during the off-season is a French Canadian. It might seem like a little thing, but it could be important to Lecavalier. Having someone else in the locker room that he can communicate in his native language might relax him. It’s speculation, but if it helps then it shows Mr. Yzerman has an astute read on his mercurial center.

The GM has done an excellent job of silencing the “trade vinny” rumors that have floated like a cloud of toxic gas around Channelside Drive for the last few years. For some reason hearing Mr. Yzerman declare that Lecavalier is not on the block is much more reassuring then listening to those-that-must-not-be-named say it last year.

It will be critical for him to get off to a good start. Last season he struggled out of the gate a bit and it ate at his confidence. Enough so that he even admitted to the press that he was gripping the stick a little too tight. Normally, you can’t read anything from his comments to the press (if you can even find them in an article) so for him to admit he was pressing shows how much it bothered him.

The organization has done what it can to make sure he is in the right place. Now it’s on his shoulders to reward their loyalty by righting his career and reestablishing himself as an offensive force.

The Season Preview Rolls On

Part II of the Lightning Season Preview. If you missed part I (how dare you!) click here :

Lightning Season Preview Part I


No Win Situation:



Oh Mr. Stamkos. You’ve had a good year haven’t you? Your first NHL trophy, your first scoring title, your first Vanity Fair photo shot, and you’ve won the hearts of Lightning fans all over the world. So what’s the reward for all of those kudos? How about your first no win situation.

If he scores 50 goals this year then it’s not that big of deal, one might say it’s even expected. After all, he’s going to have a stable line this year (or at least as stable as Guy Boucher’s system allows - which it sounds like might be as chaotic as the previous regime’s), the power play is already being touted as the best in the league and there is a coach that wants to play an up-tempo offensive style. Heck, he should score 70 this year!

If, for some reason, he doesn’t hit the magic mark then the cynics will wonder if last year was a fluke. If he scores 40, then the question will be why did he back track? God forbid if he doesn’t get at least 40. I guarantee that if he slumps coming out of the gate there will be at least one column penned about him being a “one year wonder”.

Honestly, at this point I don’t think he’ll net 50 goals. I do think he’ll be in the mid to high 40’s, but for all of the reason’s I mentioned in the second paragraph he won’t hit the magic number. Let’s face it, there are only so many goals to go around. Newcomer Simon Gagne will take his fare share on the power play as should Pavel Kubina. Since Vincent seems to have his head on straight look for him to tack on another 10 goals or so to his total.

Stamkos is now a marked man. Teams are going to start marking him a bit closer on the power play. All of the room that he had in that circle last year is going to rapidly diminish. He will be seeing more of the top defensive pairs as well so that’s going to hurt him during even strength play.

The good news is that he is still learning and growing stronger. Sometimes it’s hard to believe that he’s not even allowed to drink a beer in the U.S. yet. At 20 years-old he hasn’t developed into the player he’s going to be. There is so much more ahead of him. Right now he’s getting by on natural talent, once his knowledge increases, once he has a veteran’s understanding of how the game is played he will be truly dangerous.

So fans, don’t be hard on the young kid. Let him develop at his own pace. And if he scores 50 goals celebrate like you did last year.

Tampa Bay Season Preview Part One

Great is not enough


Lofty goals set by a first year coach. If he’s a mad genius or a crazy-eyed lunatic hasn‘t been determined yet. Guy Boucher’s ability to coach in the NHL is a blank slate. His success at the lower levels has been well documented. Will that change when the young guys desperate for a chance to play at the next level are replaced by millionaires coasting on past accomplishments? The Lightning players have nothing but positive things to say after the preseason. However, the players also raved about the previous coach during his early months as well.

The future is murky for the Tampa Bay Lightning, but the light seems to be starting to shine through. New blood has been brought in off the ice and on the ice. New GM Steve Yzerman has earned kudos throughout the league and the web-o-sphere for his moves in rebuilding the team. Boucher and his untested 1-3-1 system have everyone (including me) giddy with the anticipation of seeing a ferocious fore-checking squad that out hustles every team it plays. Will playing in Tampa turn into Three Periods of Hell for opposing teams?

That remains to be seen, after all they still have to play the games. What looks good on paper has to be good on the ice. New winger Simon Gagne has to stay healthy and spark Vincent Lecavalier’s resurgence. The new blue liners have to actually block the shots they’re being brought in to block. Marty St Louis has to earn the big money he resigned for by continuing his consistent consistency.

With that being said, the playoffs are not out of the question. Winning the division might be a stretch, but it’s not hard to picture the Lightning as one of the 8 best teams in the Eastern Conference. Now I could give you a standard pre-season preview of the team, but I’d rather not. Instead, over the next week I’ll post a couple of key storylines to watch during the season.

Hope you enjoy.



Hey Don’t Forget About Me!



Let’s run down Ryan Malone’s off-season. He was rumored to be traded to Toronto for much of the summer. Then he lost his number to the Lightning’s shiniest new toy, Simon Gagne, and, oh by the way, lost his position on the right wing of Vincent Lecavalier’s line. With Guy Boucher’s system that last one might not mean that much as all of the forwards will rotate throughout the different positions during their shift. Still, it hasn’t been pretty for the Pittsburgh native who has scored a total of 47 goals for the Lightning in the last two season.

While much of the press has focused Steven Stamkos, Marty St Louis, Lecavalier, Gagne and Steve Downie, Malone has found himself as a bit of an afterthought. For someone who was tied for the team lead with 7 game winning goals last season that has to be a bitter pill to swallow.

Part of that could be because of the way he ended last season. After a red hot start he faded in the second half of the season, just when the Bolts were making their unsuccessful playoff run. He battled injuries for most of the second year How bad was the second half of the year? He only scored two goals in 2010 and none since January 21st.

He also seems to be an odd fit for Boucher’s puck pursuit style of offense. Malone isn’t the fastest skater. His defensive work can be questionable at best and he’s not the best passer on the team. What he does well is plant himself in front of the net and create havoc for other team’s goaltenders. With that he still has value. The rest of the offensive stars are “skills” guys. They benefit from having a grinder, a rock in front of the net to redirect shots or stuff home rebounds.

How much ice time he sees will be determined by his efforts on the ice. Based on the new players brought in, Malone won’t be seeing much time on the first power play unit. His spot on Lecavalier’s line could be at risk if one of the wingers on the third line shows a bit of tenacity (I’m looking at you Dana Tyrell). It will be interesting to see how he responds. Under the previous regime he was penciled into one of the top lines and left alone. Now he’ll have to show that he can keep pace with the rest of the offense.

If he does then the Lightning have a bonafide chance of boasting six 20 goal scorers. If they do that, then the playoffs should be assured. Two big ifs, but it’s going to be fun to watch them try.