Time to Sell? The Lightning at the Half-Way Point

Now, more than ever, it looks like the chances for postseason are sliding away for the Tampa Bay Lightning. On Tuesday they take on the Western Conference leading Vancouver Canucks at the newly christened Tampa Bay Times Forum (it will always be the Ice Palace to us) fighting for their postseason lives.  While no games are must win until facing elimination, every game from now on is pretty damn important.

 The Bolts return from a road trip through Canada that started with high hopes.  Having won three straight at home prior to departing, a solid road trip would have launched them into the thick of the playoff race.  Alas, it wasn’t to be so.

They return to Tampa with nothing more than a couple of new stamps on their passports and some new faces in the lineup.  Three straight losses and zero points have dropped the Lightning to thirteenth in the Eastern Conference.  They are now closer to last (3 points ahead of the Islanders) than playoffs (9 points behind the decimated Penguins).  With forty games gone in the season it’s starting to look like they will be sellers at the deadline.

Looks like someone is scared of Mr. Downie - Getty images Graig Abel

No one on the team or in the organization will admit that they aren’t planning for the playoffs, but it’s time to be realistic. Even if they take advantage of the home-heavy portion of the schedule, there are five teams in front of them that they have to leapfrog.  If they do manage to pull that off then they are sitting in the seventh or eighth seed and staring down a first round matchup with the Rangers, Bruins or Flyers.

Still, the fans on the internet call out for GM Steve Yzerman to trade for a stud goalie, a top-six forward and a top-four defenseman.  It’s not going to happen.  The individual cost of any one of those types of players is going to be astronomical as the season marches to the trade deadline (48 days and counting!).  During his short reign in charge Yzerman has made it quite certain that he isn’t interested in trading the future for the now. 

Blowing up the farm system (i.e. Carter Ashton, Brett Connolly, the Russians or Dustin Tokarski) for a goalie or a rental forward is going to do more damage to this team in the long run than missing the playoffs this year.  The goal of the owner and the front office is to put together a team that is successful for a long run. In that process there will be bumps in the road, this year obviously being one of them. There is no need to sacrifice what has been built because of a temporary detour.

Last year’s deadline deals cost them Ty Wishart, a 23-year old defenseman who might be a career AHL’er , and Brock Beukeboom who may develop eventually but is still years away from making an impact in the NHL.  Neither player was considered an integral part of the Lightning’s future so they were exchanged for pieces that helped solidify a much better product than what is on the ice this year.

Those types of deals won’t make the 2011-2012 Tampa Bay Lightning Stanley Cup contenders.  Trading for Corey Schneider or Tuukka Rask sounds like a good idea at first, but there is no guarantee they are going to perform to the level that they have displayed with their current teams.  If the Semyon Varlamov trade is the starting point for young goaltending talent then it’s a non-starter.  Yzerman is not going to sacrifice a first and second round pick for goalies that have performed well, but haven’t proven anything. Especially since both goalies are Restricted Free Agents next summer and could be heading for decent raises.

Josh Harding has been another name bandied about the internets, but one would wonder how he would perform outside of the Wild’s defensive system.  More likely, if Yzerman is going to address the goaltender situation, he is going to target a veteran backup such as Johan Hedberg or Evgeni Nabokov to ride out this season and then start over in the off-season.  Would that be an upgrade over what they have now?  Probably not and it would be making a move for the sake of making a move, something Yzerman isn’t known to do. So face it Lightning fans – Roloson and Garon are the team going forward.

As for the blue line, it seems that every GM in the league is searching for a top-four defenseman heading into the second half of the season.  That demand is going to drive up the market at well, with sellers looking for young controlled talent or draft pick. Which leads into the next discussion – if the Lightning aren’t buying this season what are they selling?

Yesterday, in an email to a couple of friends I picked the top three members of the team likely to be packing their bags at the deadline.  They were:

Exxxxxxxcllllluuuusssive!

Pavel Kubina – Since the injury to Victor Hedman, Kubina has stepped up and filled the role of the physical blue-liner that everyone wants to add at the deadline.  He still can’t skate his way out of a paper bag, but he provides twenty-plus minutes of defense and a heavy shot from the point.  With the competition for available defensemen expected to be heated he could draw a second round pick or a decent prospect in return.  As an unrestricted free agent at the end of the season, it’s unlikely that the organization would be bringing him back anyway so they might as well get some value for him.

Prety much the only Malone photo ever needed.

Ryan Malone – If only he could stay healthy his value would be much higher.  Malone still has 3 years left on his contract at a $4.5 million cap hit.  However, for a team with cap space his contract isn’t that bad.  In actual salary he is scheduled to make $3 million, $2.5 million and $2.5 million over the life of the contract.  Not bad for someone who plays the physical game in front of the net.  Clearing that cap room could help the Lightning bring in a decent free agent in the off-season. If a club is offering a 2^nd round pick and a mid-level prospect I’m sure Yzerman is listening.

One of these guys can be had at the deadline. And it's not the little one.

Brett Clark – His numbers are down a bit from last season, but for a team needing some depth on the blue line he could be a fit.  Clark playing ten minutes a game is more effective than Clark playing twenty minutes, a role he’s been forced into with the injuries suffered by the Lightning.  For a fourth round pick he could be had.

Other names that could come up in trade talks would be Mathieu Garon, Dominic Moore, Teddy Purcell and Adam Hall.  Teams looking for depth could take a flyer on any of those players and help themselves make a playoff push.

Whatever happens, expect Steve Yzerman to make the best of the situation.  Take for example, the Blair Jones trade. Jones was a role player and was turned into a young defenseman that fits the Guy Boucher model – a smooth-skating puck mover.  I would expect similar moves going down the stretch.  And hey, most of the moves have worked out in the Lightning’s favor so far so why not trust in Yzerman?

Another Annual Tradition - Let's Trade Ryan Malone!

The thermometer is hovering around 95 and for the first time in my life I live in a building that doesn’t have central air. So in order to cool off I’m typing this with a Lasko box fan on high two feet from my face; and I’m thinking about hockey.

Unfortunately, in the middle of July there isn’t much going on in the hockey world. The major free agents have signed and the dust seems to have settled on big trades. Still it’s better than writing about the O’s. Other than a glaring hole the size of Steven Stamkos on the roster, the Lightning are pretty much going about business as usual. Most of their recent signing have been depth moves aimed at filling out Norfolk’s roster.

Teddy Purcell’s arbitration hearing is scheduled for Wednesday, and barring a last minute compromise it appears the two sides will get a chance to state their respective cases. These types of dealings can get contentious, after all, the Lightning front office will be making their case against paying him what he thinks he’s worth, and really the only way to do that is to bring up the negative aspects of his game. The good news is, no matter what the outcome he will be skating on with the Bolts next season.

Reports of changes underway at the Ice Palace are encouraging, it seems Lightning fans will enjoy most of the upgrades once they get a chance to attend a game in October. While I doubt I’ll be there for the home opener, I do hope to see at least one or two games at some point next season. Once I do, I’ll be sure to pass along my opinions. It will be interesting to see if Mr. Vinik is able to recoup any of his expenditures from the city of Tampa once the upgrades are done.

Even in the Twitter-verse things are relatively quiet, especially when compared to hysteria that accompanied the free agent frenzy at the beginning of the month. The only thing that popped up in the last couple of days was a rumor that had Tampa talking with Toronto. Normally, I don’t engage with speculation from unconfirmed sources, but with the overall landscape being quite bare let’s indulge a little shall we?

Any time trade speculation comes up the first thought is that Tampa Bay is giving up and dealing the rights to Stamkos to another club. In this case that’s highly unlikely. The Leafs aren’t exactly dealing with tons of cap space so in order to afford Stamkos they would have to move a rather large contract back to Tampa Bay.

In scouring their current roster, I must say there really isn’t all that much to choose from. Their biggest cap hits are: Phil Kessel ($5.4million for three more seasons), newly signed Tim Connolly (2 years at $4.75), Dion Phaneuf ($6.5 for three more years), and Mike Komisarek ($4.5 for three more years).

No one in that group would be worth taking on in exchange for Stamkos even with a top prospect and a high round pick or two. Sure, Phaneuf would provide some big hits and the occasional goal, but that’s a steep price tag for a player who is basically Mattias Ohlund, without all of the oldness.

Kessel would provide some scoring, but he has garnered a reputation as a sullen player who might not be the best clubhouse fit. The Lightning appear to be a tight-knit group and instilling a negative influence might not be great for team chemistry.

So in all likelihood the players being discussed don’t involve number 91. More likely, this is the emerging of the yearly Ryan Malone to Toronto trade rumors (now entering its third season!) Malone’s $4.5 million cap hit and declining salary might be more enticing to the Leafs than the $7.5-$8 million it will take to sign Stamkos. Malone, when healthy can provide 20-25 goals and be the big presence in front of the net that teams seem to desire these days.

The “when healthy” qualifier is important. He hasn’t played more than 70 games in a season since signing with the Lightning in 2008-09 and for some stretches, even when he’s been in the lineup it’s apparent that he hasn’t been 100%.
His role with Tampa Bay is hard to define as well. When most of the press talks about the type of forward that coach Guy Boucher prefers they use adjectives such as quick, fast-skating, hard working, defensive minded, two-way, back-checking, etc.

Those aren’t exactly Malone’s strong points. While he isn’t a horrible skater, he also isn’t going to win many fastest skater competitions either. His place is in front of the net where he can use his strength and natural pestering abilities to redirect pucks and stuff home rebounds. That takes skill and determination that I’m not sure many hockey fans appreciate. However, it might not be as important for the Lightning as it is for other teams.

What could the Lightning expect back for Mr. Malone? Well a draft pick and a mid –range prospect or third line NHL’er. The Lightning won’t be at the cap when they sign Stamkos and Purcell, but that doesn’t mean they aren’t looking to save some money. Turning that $4.5 million hit into a $1.5 million hit would give them some payroll flexibility should they need it down the road.

Who would replace him on the roster? With the loss of Sean Bergenheim and Simon Gagne it’s accepted that Malone would return to his role as one of the top six forwards on the team – a position he had and lost at the end of last season.

My immediate thought would be that he would be replaced from within. Recently Damian Cristodero had an article in the St. Pete Times that discussed Carter Ashton and his chances for making the club out of camp. The argument was that his best chance would be to change his game and become more of a third line center. If a Malone deal happens, wouldn’t it make more sense to have Ashton and his offensive skills on the
top lines instead of mucking it up for 8 minutes a game with the grinders?

Granted, it would be a big adjustment for Ashton to jump from juniors all the way to the NHL, but isn’t that why you trade up to draft elite talent? At some point these prospects are going to have to have their mettle tested against the big boys. Why not next season?

In all probability this is just speculation and Malone will be skating alongside Vincent next season on the second line. Still, that’s what these summer months are for. Well that and ice cream.

Tampa Bay Season Preview Part One

Great is not enough


Lofty goals set by a first year coach. If he’s a mad genius or a crazy-eyed lunatic hasn‘t been determined yet. Guy Boucher’s ability to coach in the NHL is a blank slate. His success at the lower levels has been well documented. Will that change when the young guys desperate for a chance to play at the next level are replaced by millionaires coasting on past accomplishments? The Lightning players have nothing but positive things to say after the preseason. However, the players also raved about the previous coach during his early months as well.

The future is murky for the Tampa Bay Lightning, but the light seems to be starting to shine through. New blood has been brought in off the ice and on the ice. New GM Steve Yzerman has earned kudos throughout the league and the web-o-sphere for his moves in rebuilding the team. Boucher and his untested 1-3-1 system have everyone (including me) giddy with the anticipation of seeing a ferocious fore-checking squad that out hustles every team it plays. Will playing in Tampa turn into Three Periods of Hell for opposing teams?

That remains to be seen, after all they still have to play the games. What looks good on paper has to be good on the ice. New winger Simon Gagne has to stay healthy and spark Vincent Lecavalier’s resurgence. The new blue liners have to actually block the shots they’re being brought in to block. Marty St Louis has to earn the big money he resigned for by continuing his consistent consistency.

With that being said, the playoffs are not out of the question. Winning the division might be a stretch, but it’s not hard to picture the Lightning as one of the 8 best teams in the Eastern Conference. Now I could give you a standard pre-season preview of the team, but I’d rather not. Instead, over the next week I’ll post a couple of key storylines to watch during the season.

Hope you enjoy.



Hey Don’t Forget About Me!



Let’s run down Ryan Malone’s off-season. He was rumored to be traded to Toronto for much of the summer. Then he lost his number to the Lightning’s shiniest new toy, Simon Gagne, and, oh by the way, lost his position on the right wing of Vincent Lecavalier’s line. With Guy Boucher’s system that last one might not mean that much as all of the forwards will rotate throughout the different positions during their shift. Still, it hasn’t been pretty for the Pittsburgh native who has scored a total of 47 goals for the Lightning in the last two season.

While much of the press has focused Steven Stamkos, Marty St Louis, Lecavalier, Gagne and Steve Downie, Malone has found himself as a bit of an afterthought. For someone who was tied for the team lead with 7 game winning goals last season that has to be a bitter pill to swallow.

Part of that could be because of the way he ended last season. After a red hot start he faded in the second half of the season, just when the Bolts were making their unsuccessful playoff run. He battled injuries for most of the second year How bad was the second half of the year? He only scored two goals in 2010 and none since January 21st.

He also seems to be an odd fit for Boucher’s puck pursuit style of offense. Malone isn’t the fastest skater. His defensive work can be questionable at best and he’s not the best passer on the team. What he does well is plant himself in front of the net and create havoc for other team’s goaltenders. With that he still has value. The rest of the offensive stars are “skills” guys. They benefit from having a grinder, a rock in front of the net to redirect shots or stuff home rebounds.

How much ice time he sees will be determined by his efforts on the ice. Based on the new players brought in, Malone won’t be seeing much time on the first power play unit. His spot on Lecavalier’s line could be at risk if one of the wingers on the third line shows a bit of tenacity (I’m looking at you Dana Tyrell). It will be interesting to see how he responds. Under the previous regime he was penciled into one of the top lines and left alone. Now he’ll have to show that he can keep pace with the rest of the offense.

If he does then the Lightning have a bonafide chance of boasting six 20 goal scorers. If they do that, then the playoffs should be assured. Two big ifs, but it’s going to be fun to watch them try.