Nervous? C'mon it Was the Browns

One nice thing about being a Ravens fan over the last decade and a half is that there is no feeling of panic being down to the Browns 6-0 at the half. I wouldn’t say I was happy with their first half performance, more like accepting of it.  If you have a friend who is a heroin addict do you get mad when he steals your wallet to buy more heroin?  No, you accept it and hide your wallet better.  The Ravens are my hophead friend.  Instead of being addicted to smack, they are addicted to three-and-out drives.

Just for you Big K.  #kickersarepeopletoo

At some point during the game a NFL “insider” tweeted something along the lines of “How about that Browns defense! Shutting out the Ravens!”. Apparently, this guy (I think it was Ian Rappaport) wasn’t watching the game, just the ticker.  The Browns defense was indeed pitching a shut out, but only because Justin Tucker was honoring Billy Cundiff by shanking two field goals and Joe Flacco had two touchdowns dropped by his receivers.  At best it should have been 20-6, at worst 10-6.  So yeah, great job Browns!

That being said, the Ravens still had their fair share of stalled drives in the first half (four of them).  Flacco is indeed the King of Cool, but at times the entire offense seems to adopt a laissez-faire attitude toward scoring.  And while that works against Cleveland, it really, really doesn’t work against teams that actually play competent football.

Next week they have to take on Houston, and while the Texans have their issues, they can definitely move the ball down the field at a better pace than the Browns.  Even if brittle wide receiver Andre Johnson is out, Matt Schaub still has Owen Daniels, Arian Foster, Ben Tate and rookie DeAndre Hopkins to choose from.  Getting pressure on Schaub is a must, and the good news for zubaz-clad Ravens fans is that the defense has done well pressuring quarterbacks so far.

In two games they’ve racked up 8 sacks, mostly while rushing only 4.  Terrell Suggs is healthy and benefiting from the attention paid to Elvis Dumervil and Chris Canty.  Now that Arthur Jones is back from his life-threatening viral infection the front seven is looking vastly improved.

Which is good, because the secondary is still a bit Chykie, I mean shaky.  It appears John Harbaugh experiment of playing a safety who can’t tackle is over now that rookie Matt Elam (GO GATORS!) has seemingly replaced Michael Huff.  Having 11 players on the field who know they can tackle should improve the defense a tad.

Yes that Chykie Brown reference was just so I could post this picture

Unfortunately, they are still having issues covering multiple threats in the open.  Several times Browns’ tight end Jordan Cameron was wide open. So open that even Brandon Weeden couldn’t miss him. That was something that plagued the Ravens against the Broncos and could cause havoc next week against the Texans.

Also a possible cause of havoc - Ray Rice’s injury.  It’s never good when a player goes down without being hit. While the team is “hopeful” that his hip flexor will be better by next week, if he’s out it could be a big blow to the team’s struggling offense.  The good news is that Bernard Pierce is capable of filling Rice’s cleats, behind Pierce there isn’t much of an option.  Right now the only other running back listed on the roster is newly signed Shaun Draughn who was picked up off the waiver wire to boost the return game in Jacoby Jones absence.

Pierce isn’t as reliable catching the ball out of the backfield as Rice is, so it potentially removes one of Flacco’s safety valves. Rice is tied with Torrey Smith for the team lead with 11 receptions, and while fewer of them have been check downs then they have been in the past, Rice is still one of the few receivers that Flacco is familiar with. Against the Browns he almost completely abandoned throwing to the tight ends as Dallas Clark only had one catch (and he held on to it!) as did new comer Billy Bajema.

I have a feeling that the Ravens are going to go back to a pound-the-rock ground game next week after two weeks of flinging the football around.  Keeping the Texans offense off of the field seems to be the best way to keep them from scoring, so prolonging drives and slowly moving down the field seems to be the smart way to go.

Marlon Brown does seem to be emerging as a capable replacement for Jones, despite dropping a sure touchdown in the first half.  He did have some nice catches in the second half and at 6’5” he has the height to reel in some of Flacco’s less than accurate passes.  If he keeps progressing he could develop into Anquan Boldin 2.0 and give the Ravens the third down/ red zone possession receiver they need to compliment the deep threat in Torrey Smith.

Through two games the Ravens are 1-1 (tied for the AFC North lead!) which is better than being 0-2.  I know, master of the obvious, but in the AFC this year there is a decent chance that a 7-9 team makes it to the playoffs.  Why can’t the Ravens be that team?

So That Went Well

Now before all of you Ravens fans start jumping off the Bromo Seltzer Tower, take a deep breath and try to stay positive.  Here are a few things to remember:

The Orioles are still in the playoff hunt!
Fall is a great time of year in the MidAtlantic area!
Mayweather/Alvarez is only a week away!
The Ravens sacked Peyton Manning three times!

Sure he torched them for 7 touchdowns and 462 yards passing, but still - they actually got pressure on him.  Manning is the best quarterback of his generation at avoiding sacks. At least, I’m pretty sure he is, I don’t feel like finding any data to support that claim because I am a sports stats Luddite.  I’m ok with that.  The point is, the Ravens D had the worst night in the organization’s history and there are still some positives to take from the game.

Hopefully he's prepared at least 19 more sack celebrations

For the last two years they’ve had problems getting to the quarterback consistently.  Hopefully, with a healthy Terrell Suggs, Chris Canty and Elvis Dumervil there is hope that they can cause some havoc in the opponents backfield. If they can get three sacks against Manning, they should be able to double that total against Brandon Weedon next Sunday.

Ok, so that’s the good.  Now for the bad, the very, very bad.  Manning a exploited a young, disorganized defense.  He beat them like a 12-year-old playing against me in Maddon. There were too many plays where the receivers weren’t just open, they were WIDE open, as in the Baltimore defender wasn’t even in the picture. I don’t think it’s the result of bad talent, most likely it’s coverage breakdowns and miscommunication - the two-headed demon that plagues all young defenses.

Luckily, that’s why teams are allowed to practice during the week.  There is a good bet that there will be some looooong video sessions in Baltimore over the next 9 days. They should play better against Cleveland, because well - Cleveland.  Unfortunately, the week after that, they will be right up against another high-powered offense in Houston.  Matt Schaub doesn’t have as many options as Manning does, but he still has big threats in Andre Johnson, Owen Daniels, Arian Foster and (hopefully for my fantasy team - DeAndre Hopkins).  That will be the real test for the defense.

Offensively, the Ravens actually looked as good as team could when passing the ball 756 times.  Ok, so it was only 62 times, but with Ray Rice on the team that’s too many passes.  BUT JUSTIN THEY WERE LOOOOSING SO THEY HAD TO THROW THE BALL!!!  First of all, stop yelling at me in my internet space.  Second, Flacco chucked the ball 29 times in the first half, you know, before the dark times, before the 3rd quarter.

It’s not like the Ravens have a bunch of shiny new toys for Flacco to throw to.  The biggest pickups in the off season were stars back when Trent Dilfer had hair and Tony Siragusa weighed less than a humpback whale. Just because Flacco is making a $100 million dollars doesn’t mean he needs to throw the ball a 100 million times.  Line up behind Leach and run the ball.

The good news is that it looked like the play calling was working.  Part of the reason it was so painful to watch Dallas Clark drop passes like the AT&T drops phone calls is because he was wide open.  Same thing with Ed Dickson and Brandon Stokley. As much as the non-challenge by Harbaugh changed the momentum, so did Clark’s touchdown drop (so much so that Steeler Fan/Crusher of Golf Balls Link sent a message saying that the Ravens would regret leaving those 4 points on the field).

Everyone regrets their college photos

Cris Collinsworth did make a salient point last night (granted he made it two or three times, beating it into the ground as he is wont to do). Flacco hasn’t developed the trust in any of his receivers that he had with Anquan Boldin and Dennis Pitta where he could throw the ball in their general area and be pretty sure they would make the catch.

In time, Torrey Smith will be that guy.  Late in the game he made a hell of a one-handed catch with a Bronco defender ripping one of his arms back.  Marlon Brown looks like he has pretty sure hands and could develop into a solid possession receiver (side topic - can we start a petition to have him drop the “n” in his name.  I feel the Baltimore will be better with a “Marlo” on the team.  #TheWire #TeamStanfield).  If Jacoby Jones is out for any length of time, Flacco is looking at an receiving unit that he has very little familiarity with.  That’s not exactly a template of success for a less-than-accurate quarterback.

Before the start of the game I told the bartender that I thought the Ravens were a 7-9 team this year.  Young defense, tough schedule, Super Bowl hangover and a depletion of talent were just too much for me to think this team could be an upper echelon team. They will improve as the season goes on, but Manning laid out the game plan on how to beat them - fast tempo, multiple receiver sets and short routes. There is no reason to think that they aren’t going to see the same thing from Houston, Green Bay, New England and Cincinnati (my pick to win the AFC North). Pittsburgh will try, but honestly who is Ben going to throw to?

I could be wrong and the defense could gel quicker than expected, but I’m more than prepared for 15 more games of Michael Huff whiffing on tackles and Ed Dickson alligator-arming passes across the middle of the field. I call week three when we actually see Joe Flacco express an emotion of disgust.

Joe Flacco is not amused.  Or is he? I can't really tell.

How Justin G. sees the season unfolding:

Week 1  at Denver - Loss

Week 2 Cleveland - Win. Defense redeems itself with a pick-6 and 5 sacks

Week 3 Houston - Loss .Andre Johnson 250 yards receiving before blowing a hamstring in the 3rd quarter

Week 4 at Buffalo - Win. Flacco throws four TDs and the defense picks off surprise starter Jim Kelly 4 times

Week 5 at Miami - Win. The annual ugly 12-10 win

Week 6 Green Bay - Loss. Aaron Rogers throws 3 TDS and fans start booing Flacco

Week 7 at Pitttsburgh - Loss. Felix Jones runs for 120 yards and I regret not starting him

Week 8 Bye - Eighty-Five “Should Harbaugh Be Fired?” columns are published

Week 9 at Cleveland - Win. C’mon it’s Cleveland

Week 10 Cincinnati - Loss.  Eighty-Five “The Bengals are For Real!” columns published.

Week 11 at Chicago - Loss. The annual 12-10 loss.

Week 12 NY Jets - Win. Ravens celebrate Thanksgiving by picking off Mark Sanchez 7 times.

Week 13 Pittsburgh - Win. Flacco hits Smith on a 98-yard pass that bounces off of Ike Taylors helmet in overtime. Playoff hopes are alive!

Week 14 Minnesota - Win. Christian Ponder is cut at halftime. Adrian Peterson is one week away from returning from his Week 2 ACL surgery.

Week 15 at Detroit - Loss.  Megatron with four receiving touchdowns. Possible rookie of the year Matt Elam is hurt when Terrell Suggs body slams him in a weird post-sack celebration.

Week 16 New England - Loss.  Patriots extract revenge for the playoff loss last year. Recent free-agent tight end Tim Tebow catches 6 passes for 115 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Week 17 at Cincinnati - Loss.  Bengals celebrate first AFC North title since 2009. Five players promptly arrested in post-game celebration.

Final record 7-9. Harbaugh keeps his job, fans demand the Ravens trade up to draft Teddy Bridgewater, Ray Lewis mulls a comeback.

Super Bowl Preview

Will we see this again?

It’s Super Bowl Sunday.  Well, almost.  I’m typing this up Saturday night waiting for the Julio Ceaser Chavez, Jr. fight to start.  Don’t worry, no boxing in this column (RIP Angelo Dundee) I’ll have my thoughts on Floyd Mayweather’s next big boxing contest in a little while.  For now it is time to wrap up my brief coverage of football.

Sunday will feature two teams that slugged their way to the Super Bowl.  New England advanced only after Billy Cundiff shanked a field goal while New York needed overtime to advance on their side. Despite rooting for one of the teams that lost on Championship Sunday I thought overall both games were pretty fun to watch. Now we move on to the fun stuff.

Gambling-wise here is where we stand:

Link – 5-5 against the spread and 2-4 straight up.

Justin G – 5-5 against the spread and 4-7 straight up.

We both enter the Super Bowl with a chance to finish with a winning record against the spread.  However, when the confetti settles on the field and the MVP proclaims his desire to visit the Rat Kingdom there will only be one.

Per vegasinsider.com the Patriots are the 3 point favorite.

First, via twitter, Link’s pick –

New York Giants 27, New England Patriots 24

That sounds like an exciting Super Bowl.  Isn’t that what we’re looking for?  At least those of us without a dog in the fight.  I really don’t want to have to talk to people about the commercials being better than the game this year.  The stars are lining up for a pretty good offensive game.  It’s in a dome, both teams have questionable defenses and both quarterbacks like to throw the football.

There is a 50 percent chance that I’m going to watch the game at a movie theatre on Sunday.  The Duchess is kicking me out of the apartment for the game and with no party to go to I was thinking bar.  Then I noticed The Vic is showing the game for free.  They have cheap beer and popcorn.  Winner Winner Super Bowl Dinner.

Speaking of dinner, I’m kind of glad that I’m not going to a house party this year. With the fried food ban in full effect it would be hard to resist any type of buffet-style party.  According to some expert somewhere, the only day where Americans consume more food is Thanksgiving.  I’m willing to bet dollars to (fried) donuts that more fried food is consumed on Super Bowl Sunday than any other day in the year.

I’m starting to see people say that they’re tired of the Super Bowl-hype.  Let me tell you something.  Going off the cable grid is the answer to that.  Since we’ve dropped cable I find that I don’t get overwhelmed by sports chatter.  I feel like I have the ability to control what I watch or read about since all of my access is through the internet. I don’t find myself mindlessly drifting to ESPN to watch Skip Bayless yammer on for 15 minutes.  I highly recommend it.

As for my pick.  I’m going:

New England Patriots 31, New York Giants 24

The two themes I have heard this week are that the Giants front four will harass Tom Brady (so calm so poised) all game long and the Patriots will have Julian Edelman covering a wide receiver.  For those reasons everyone is supposedly hammering the Giants at the betting windows.  Somehow, despite being the odds-on favorites the consensus is that the Patriots are the underdog.

I’m not so sure about that.  I can see Tom Brady (so calm, so poised) coming out with a hurray-up/pistol offense and dink and dunk the Giants to death.  The Patriots offense isn’t based on long passes or plays that take a long time to develop.  They love the quick shots to their tight ends and then letting them run for 10 or 12 yards after the catch.  That’s hard to defend, and if they’re going quick-huddle the big four linemen for the Giants are going to be gassed.

Any time you can post a picture of Brady with a goat you have to do it, right?

As for the Patriots secondary matching up with New York’s receivers – that’s going to be an issue, but I think they find a way to minimize the damage.  I think they’ll find a way to keep the receivers in front of them and not give up the long bombs. Bill Belichik has two weeks to figure out a solution.  He might not shut them down, but he’ll make them work for it.

That being said, I think the Giants have a legitimate chance in the game.  A lot of folks think Eli Manning is just lucky.  They point to the Tyree helmet catch and say, “Oh he just flung it up there and got lucky”.  Yes, but did you see what he did to get in a position to be able to throw that pass?  He has a little Roethlisberger in him.  In a good way, that is.  Get your minds out of the gutter, folks.  He hands around and makes the plays he has to make.

For the Giants to win I look for them to try and establish the run and keep the Patriots off the field.  Their offensive line will have to find a way to clear Vince Wilfork out of the way and open up holes for their runners.  Use the run early and throw late. Keep Tom Brady (so calm, so poised) and his band of tight ends on the sidelines.

In the end I just hope for a good game and at least two good commercials that I haven’t seen yet.   

Sorry Rory, this was too good not to share with dozens of readers.

Seventeen Things Better Than The Ravens Loss

Superman Smith breaks the goaline. Photo by David Butler II, US Presswire

So far 2012 isn’t treating my favorite teams any better than 2011.  Last year the Tampa Bay Lightning were one goal away from advancing to the Stanley Cup Finals. Liverpool was horrendous, sacked their coach and sold off their most prolific scorer while barely qualifying for the Europa League (European soccer’s version of the NIT). Now, as the opening month of 2012 draws to a close I have to watch a field goal sail wide of its intended target costing the Ravens a shot at the Super Bowl.

Len Bias Cocaine Surplus

Mon 23 Jan 2012 2:32 AM

What Went Wrong On Billy Cundiff’s Missed Kick?

I'm going to say the part where it didn't go through those yellow things

(Edit comment)

The above comment was posted on a deadspin article that broke down Billy Cundiff’s failed attempt to tie the game against the Patriots on Sunday.  It literally made me laugh out loud. Literally. I guess that means the healing process is well under way.  The stages as the happened:

1.       Joy – the football in Lee Evans hands.

2.       Surprise- The ball falling out of Evans hands.

3.       Dealmaking – Chip shot field goal ties the game, 50/50 chance in overtime.

4.       Shock – Football sails wide, CBS cuts to Terrell Suggs saying “Oh My God”.  (Seriously, that was an awesome piece of camera work.  Kudos.)

Totally stole this from Kissing Suzy Kolber

5.       Morose Mother F*cker – Walked back to the apartment in the chilly Chicago rain. If I had my iPod, Bill Withers would havebeen playing (probably the BB King version)

6.       ALCOHOL! – Good friend Hamel comes through with tickets to see Buddy Guy play at his club downtown.  Blues and beers perfect for getting over the loss. Legends is a bit touristy (I prefer Kingston Mines), but to watch a master craftsman tear up a stage at 75-years old is awesome. I’ll be lucky to get out of bed when I’m that age.

7.       Sleep – Nothing better than a good 7 hours of sack time.

8.       Laughter – Sure the jokes are at the Ravens expense, but they’re still funny.

9.       Writing – I guess that’s part of the reason why I write.  Helps get the sad out.

So that’s where I’m at right now.  By the way, in regards to point number two, I don’t think Lee Evans caught the ball.  It should have been reviewed, but I don’t think that would have changed the outcome.  It just didn’t seem like a catch, but at the same time it wasn’t a drop.  It was a great defensive play by Sterling Moore.  Moving on (as I’m sure Lee Evans will be in the off-season).

I could remember this season for the disappointment of being so close to the Super Bowl, but instead I think I’d rather remember the good things:

1.       The Week One curbstomping of the Steelers.

2.       The first quarter of the Rams game when Flacco to Smith was unleashed and millions of fantasy footballers rushed to their computers to pick Torrey Smith up on waivers.

3.       The second half comeback against the Cardinals

4.       Flacco to Smith to beat the Steelers in Week Nine.

5.       Being part of the 71,000 strong cheering for the Ravens on Thanksgiving.

6.       The Week 17 win in Cincinnati to clinch a home field playoff game.

7.       The Bernie Pollard to Jimmy Smith interception against Brady.

8.       Flacco to Dennis Pitta all season long made losing Todd Heap a little easier to take.

9.       The absurdity of “Ball So Hard University” and Joe Flacco skateboarding.

10.   Flacco’s mustache.

11.   The maturation of Lardarius Webb.

12.   Learning to spell “Lardarius”.

13.   Ray Lewis, a step slower, but still one of the best.

14.   My cousin’s slightly insane Ravens-related Facebook posting.

15.   My niece’s “Go Way-Bins” cheers.

16.   Did I mention the Steelers beat down?

17.   John Harbaugh with a cut in his chin quotingTeddy Roosevelt.

So I guess my point is that there was a lot of good in the 2011-12 Ravens season. I’ll be trying to ignore the NFL for the next two weeks, mainly because I don’t need to hear about the Patriots wanting revenge for the next fourteen days.  Besides the Lightning are fighting for their playoff lives, and that’s way more interesting than Skip Bayliss yelling at a TV camera.

I will throw one more football post up a couple of days before the Super Bowl.  After all, the gamblers need to know who to bet on, right?  Heck, maybe Link and I will even break down some of the prop bets for you as well. Till then, it’ll be more hockey and sports cards, yea! 

Back To Football - and Introducing the Joe Flacco Drinking Game

OK.  So we didn’t exactly light up the scoreboard with our picks last week.  For the record I went 1-3 straight up and 1-3 against the spread (thanks Tebow!).  Link went 1-3 straight up, but 2-2 against the spread as he correctly predicted New Orleans to cover the 6.5.

This week we’re going to continue to give you bad gambling advice while breaking down the second round games.  The lightweights are gone, the big boys are rested and it’s time to see if Tebow-mania is going to roll on.

First off, let me offer my condolences to Link’s Steelers, like a blind, three-legged dog with failing kidneys they were finally put out of their misery. I imagine a lot of changes are coming for that team this offseason.

When was the last time all four home teams won AND covered their spread? For me the biggest surprise of the week was the Houston blowout of Cincinnati.  I didn't think a TJ Yates-led team would dominate in a playoff game. Good for them! Will he pull off a shocker in Baltimore this week? Let’s find out!

Saturday 4.30 EST New Orleans (-3.5) at San Francisco

 If I’m reading the NFL stats right we have the number one passing offense going up against the 17^th best pass defense in the league. Drew Brees had a ho-hum 466 yard/ 3 TD performance against the Lions last week. He’s now thrown 28 touchdowns against only 3 picks in the 7 weeks since the bye week. That’s crazy good. However, the 49er’s did pick off 23 passes this season and Brees can throw ‘em in bunches when he’s harassed.

Some folks out there are making a lot of the fact that the Saints are an indoor team that might struggle outdoors.  Two of their three losses were outdoors (Green Bay and Tampa), but they also came early in the season before their offense really started clicking. The weather is expected to be decent so I don’t think it’ll be that big of an effect in the game.  I doubt the Saints will be able to run the ball much, but should be able to hit the short passes and bombs to put enough points on the board.

 As for the 49er’s on offense…..well it is Alex Smith.  He’s not exciting, but he doesn’t turn the ball over either, only 5 INTs on the season.  They rushed for about 127 yards a game so I’m guessing they are a ball control, let the defense win the game type of team.  I’m not going to lie, I haven’t seen too much of them this year. Not sure that gets it done against a team with the firepower of the Saints.

I’m going:

Saints 27, 49’ers 17


Now onto the marquee matchup for the day:

Denver at New England (-13.5)

There’s no way Denver wins this game, right?  Despite being heavy underdogs last week against Pittsburgh there were things that you could look at as being in the Broncos favor, namely a depleted and banged up Steelers team and home field advantage.  This week they are looking at a rested New England squad that has the AFC’s best offense and what should be a rowdy (i.e. well-lubricated) crowd.

There is no way the Patriots make the same mistake the Steelers did in letting Tim Tebow drop back and huck the ball down the field.  Link and I spoke earlier this week about that being the easiest throw a quarterback can make. I can see New England keeping their safeties back and forcing Tebow to complete 8-15 yard passes that require some sort of accuracy, something that he has trouble with. 

If Denver can run the ball, great let them run all day long.  Make them grind out 10 minute drives because you know Tom Brady can march down the field and score in 3 minutes.  As we saw when they met earlier this season Denver can’t keep up with them in a shoot-out. 

Patriots 28, Denver 13

On to Sunday

Houston at Baltimore (-7.5)

It seems the pundits are chalking this one up to a relatively easy Ravens victory.  I’m not so sure.  Granted, I think they win, but I have a feeling it will be an ugly, grinding 15-14 kind of game.  Instead of breaking it down I will give you, instead, the Joe Flacco drinking game:

Drink:

Every time Flacco checks down to Ray Rice
Every time Flacco overthrows Rice by 5 feet on a swing out pass
Flacco overthows Torrey Smith by inches on a 50 yard bomb
Dennis Pitta has to leap 3 feet in the air to haul in a 3^rd and 8 reception

Shot: 

Flacco hits Smith on a 50 yard bomb for a touchdown
You realize Flacco hasn’t completed a pass to a wide receiver in a quarter and a half
Flacco scrambles like a new-born calf on roller skates for a first down
Flacco takes a delay of game penalty
Flacco throw a deep pass into the end zone to draw a pass interference penalty…and gets the call
Flacco completes 8 passes in a row to raise his completion percentage to 50% on the day

I kid, I kid.  I like Joe Flacco and think he’s a better quarterback than critics give him credit for.  I look for Ray Rice to have a typical productive day and the defense feasts on a couple of T.J. Yates turnovers.

Bonus Chug:

Ed Reed attempts a lateral after picking a pass off.

Baltimore 17, Houston 13

The final game of the weekend and a pretty good matchup

New York at Green Bay (-8.5)

The key matchup is going to be the Giants pass rush against a banged up Green Bay offensive line.  If they can get penetration (heh, heh penetration) and fluster Aaron Rodgers they can make it a long day for Mr. Discount Double Check.  Like Brady in New England, Rodgers has plenty of options to throw it to, but it’ll be hard to hit Jordy Nelson when he’s laying on his backside.

On the other side Green Bay gives up a ton of yardage(411 per game) but also creates turnovers (31 picks and 7 recovered fumbles). So I wouldn’t be surprised to see Eli throw for 350 yards but also turn the ball over 4 times. 

By the way, nice move by the Yankees picking up Michael Pineda.  Now their pitching staff is almost as good as the Rays.

Packers 27, Giants 21

Due to a project at work (that required multiple cover letters for TPS reports) Link wasn't able to get to his side of the discourse.  He did however provide his picks)

New Orleans -3.5
New England -13.5
Houston +7.5
Giants +8.5

A Break From My Stuff - Link Drops By With a Few Playoff Predictions

As I mentioned in my last post The Hopeful Chase is going a bit more football this weekend.  Since I have no clue as to what I’m talking about I’ve brought in someone who follows the game a bit more than I do. Former Saint Leo baseball great, former radio talk show host, former gum slingin’ salesman, and unremitted Pittsburgh sports lover – Link!  You may remember Link from such posts as “An Eulogy in Black and Gold” and “Let’s Review Game Sechs”.

Home teams are in all-caps and the lines posted are the opening lines from the Las Vegas Hilton via vegasinsider.com

Take it away, Link………

 
Cincinnati vs. HOUSTON  (-3)

Kids - that is how you stiff arm.

The last time the Bengals let a 9 point lead slip through their hands was when T.J. Yates threw a late touchdown pass. In that game, the Texans were playing without their stud wide receiver Andre Johnson.  Right now Yates has a separated shoulder (non throwing shoulder) which make me think if he struggles we will see Jack Delhomme early in this game.

The real question is how long can the Texans can survive playing a 3^rd string quarterback. I think the Bengals, despite their inability to beat winning teams, find a way to shut down Arian Foster.

Cincinnati 23 Houston 16

Pittsburgh (-8) vs. DENVER

It's funny 'cause Ben looks like he's dead.

First I have to admit that I am a Steelers fan from Pittsburgh (ed note – BOO HISS). Now that we have that out of the way, here are my thoughts.

To say the Steelers are hobbling into this game is an understatement. It would be quicker to tell you who is healthy as opposed to who is hurt. Pittsburgh has the best scoring defense in the NFL, but on offense, we all know Big Ben looks like Herman Munster trying to throw a pass. The offensive tackles have struggled all year with undersized speed rushers and the Broncos have two of them in Elvis Dummervill and Von Miller. The two mile high pass rushers should be able to get pressure on an immobile Roethlisberger and shorten a lot of Steelers drives.

Denver is led by Tim Tebow. It is hard to imagine a team playing a quarterback who can’t throw to his right. Good thing Denver can rely on their defense. I am not a Tebow basher, I do think he has talent, but I think he would have been better served learning to play the position by watching for a few seasons. The Steelers win this battle, but it won’t be easy.

Pittsburgh 15 Denver 10

Atlanta vs. NEW YORK GIANTS (-3)

Remember when Stokley caught the ball in the Super Bowl? I don't. I was a little tipsy

Can you tell who the real New York Giants are? Are they the team that shut Dallas out in the first half or the team that looked awful in Week 15 against the Redskins? Atlanta started off slow, so people forgot about the Falcons, but they have quietly put up 11 wins.

The big question is which defense will show up? The Falcons and the Giants have been passed upon all year. The Falcons 1-2 punch of Roddy White and Julio Jones is better than the Giants Victor Cruz. Even though I like the Giants defensive line a lot more, I think Atlanta finds a way to win. By the way, take the over (ed note – currently at 47.5).

Atlanta 41 New York 30

Detroit vs. NEW ORLEANS (-10.5)

Hey Willis!

Wow, what to say other than I think this is your old style WAC match up. If you are a defensive coordinator you won’t get a lot of sleep this weekend. The Saints come into the playoffs looking like a well-oiled machine. Their offense is on fire and their defense played surprisingly well down the stretch. The Lions are all offense and no defense, but damn is their offense fun to watch. Put the kiddies to bed early, this is gonna be a shootout (ed. Note – the over/under on this game is currently 59).

New Orleans 48 Detroit 34

Look for Justin G's unscientific breakdown on Saturday!

A Season in Review - How I did in Predicting the Ravens

That's a Super Bowl Level Mustache - photo from Baltimore Sun

Alright, it looks like we might be a little football heavy on this here weblog for the next couple of weeks.  I don’t write about it much because, quite frankly, it’s the one sport I enjoy more as a casual observer then as a writer/analyzer.  I’m not quite at the point of drinking the purple kool-aid (just the jungle juice) and donning purple zubazs yet, but of all the teams I follow I am most unabashedly a fan first.

That being said, I did try to take an analytical look at theRavens schedule before the season to try and predict how they would finish.  My prediction was close, 10-6, vs. their actual record of 12-4. I thought it would be spot on, after all MGM had them pegged as a 10 win team as well.  However, the game-by-game guessing was wildly inaccurate; to the point of my dad taking the time to email me and make fun of me.  He’s also threatened to sign up as a commenter just so he can make fun of me in public.  Thanks for reading, Pops!  Enjoy Hawaii!

As is my policy, anytime I make predictions I follow up on them to see how I did.  Unlike the talking heads on TV I accept accountability for my prognostications and will suffer the consequences when I do poorly (as is often the case).  So here we go:

 Week  1 vs. Pittsburgh

My prediction – Ravens Could Lose

Reason – “I think Pittsburgh is a better team than Baltimore this year”

Outcome – Yeah, missed the boat on this one. The Ravens forced 7 turnovers and cruised to a 35-7 victory that I didn’t get to see thanks to a Direct TV problem at the bar.

Prediction record – 0-1

Week 2 at Tennessee

My prediction – Ravens Should Win

Reason – “Ravens should be able to shut down Chris Johnson and put the game in Matt Hasslebeck’s hands.”

Outcome – They shut Johnson down holding him to only 53 yards rushing, but Hasselbeck torched them for 358 yards and Rod Bironas kicked 4 field goals to lead the Titans to a 26-13 victory that I also didn’t see because the folks at Goose Island in Wrigleyville kept switching the game off.

Prediction record – 0-2

Week 3 at St. Louis

My prediction – Games We Don’t Know What Will Happen

Reason – “Stephen Jackson is a legitimate offensive threat and their defense should be better than people think”

Outcome – The coming out party for rookie Torrey Smith. The wide receiver has 3 touchdown receptions in the first quarter and the Ravens rolled to a franchise record 553 yards of offense.  I’m giving myself a win here since I thought they would win 2 of the 3 mystery games.

Prediction record 1-2

Week 4 vs. New York Jets

My Prediction – Ravens Could Lose

Reason – “There is no way Mark Sanchez has a big game against Baltimore, but I think bad penalties and a lack of discipline will be the difference as the Jets win 10-9”

Outcome – The defense scores 3 times and leads the team to a 34-17 victory. Hey at least I knew that Sanchez would struggle.

Prediction record - 1-3 

Bye Week – Push! 

Week 6 vs. Houston

My Prediction – Games We Don’t Know What Will Happen

Reason – “If Arian Foster and Andre Johnson stay healthy the middle of October could be a shoot-out.”

Outcome – Johnson was hurt and the Ravens outplayed the Texans down the stretch for a 29-14 victory. Joe Flacco threw for over 300 yards and Billy Cundiff kicked five field goals.

Prediction record – 2-3

Week 7 at Jacksonville

My Prediction – Ravens Should Win

Reason – “The one game on the schedule that the Ravens should be double digits and actually cover”

Outcome – I created a new gambling rule – never bet on the Ravens when they’re favored by more than 10 points.  Jacksonville took away Ray Rice as a check down option for Flacco and stymied the Ravens offense.  The Jaguars had their highlight for the season as they won in primetime 12-7.

Prediction record – 2-4

Week 8 vs. Arizona

My Prediction – Ravens Should Win

Reason – “If the Ravens get pressure on him (Kevin Kolb) they should be able to force mistakes.”

Outcome – The Ravens had to come back from 21 points down in the second half to win, but they did it. This is the game where they decided to add the “throw it deep in the endzone and hope for a flag” play to the playbook. It actually worked twice and led to two easy Ray Rice touchdowns. Flacco threw the ball a career-high 51 times in the 30-27 win.

Prediction record – 3-4

Week 9 at Pittsburgh

My Prediction – Ravens Could Lose

Reason – “The pressure will be on Flacco and so far in his career pressure games haven’t been his forte.”

Outcome – For once it was the Ravens winning in the last minute as Joe hit Torrey Smith for a 26-yard touchdown to win the game 23-20 with eight seconds left on the clock. I had labeled it a must win game if the Ravens wanted to win the AFC North and in the end it proved to be the difference as the two teams finished the season with identical records but the Ravens with the tie-breaker edge.

Prediction record – 3-5

Week 10 at Seattle

My Prediction – Ravens Should Win

Reason – “Tavaris Jackson”

Outcome – Marshawn Lynch (who I had cut from my fantasy team due to lack of production) had a combined 167 yards of offense and the Ravens turned the ball over 3 times in the 22-17 loss.

Prediction record – 3-6

Week 11 vs. Cincinnati

My Prediction – Ravens Should Win

Reason – “The Ravens should be able to shut down the running game and feast on the rookie quarterback (Andy Dalton).”

Outcome – Baltimore held off a fourth quarter comeback by the feisty Bengals to cling to a 31-24 win.  Torrey Smith was a factor again with 165 yards receiving while the defense forced 3 second-half turnovers by Dalton (2 picks and a fumble).

Prediction Record – 4-6

Week 12 vs. San Francisco

My Prediction – Ravens Should Win

Reason – No real reason given, just implied the 49’s would be bad.

Outcome- I was at this game!  Yea!  Oh, and the Ravens won 16-6 by dominating on defense and doing just enough on offense to win.  Who cares? I was there!

Prediction Record – 5-6

Week 13 at Cleveland

My Prediction – Ravens Should Win

Reason – “The Ravens won’t light up the scoreboard, but should score enough to win.”

Outcome – Ray Rice runs for over 200 yards and the Ravens coast to a 24-10 victory. Lardarius Webb runs a punt back for Baltimore as well, a bright spot in the season for the much maligned special teams unit.

Prediction record – 6-6

Ed Dixon uses the Force to make a catch - AP/Nick Wass

Week 14 vs. Indianapolis

My Prediction – Games We Don’t Know What Will Happen

Reason – “Much like Roethisberger he (Peyton Manning) has the Ravens number in head-to-head matchups.”

Outcome – To my credit, when I made this prediction there was still talk of Manning playing at the end of the season.   Curtis Painter was no match for the Ravens defense and Ray Rice ran for over 100 yards in the 24-10 victory. I’ll take the loss on this one since I didn’t have the stones to make a real prediction.

Prediction record – 6-7

Week 15 at San Diego

My Prediction – Ravens Could Lose

Reason – “From Phil Rivers ability to rack up passing yardage to the Ravens having to go to the west coast, it all adds up to a loss.”

Outcome:  I pretty much nailed this one.  The Chargers picked on rookie Jimmy Smith and racked up 270 passing yards to take the 34-14 win.  The Ravens weren’t able to get any pressure on Rivers as the Chargers looked way too comfortable in winning the game.

Prediction record – 7-7

Week 16 vs. Cleveland

My Prediction – Ravens Should Win

Reason – “The air is cold, the stockings are hung and the Browns still suck.”

Outcome – Baltimore built a 17-0 halftime lead and held on to a 20-14 win. They sealed the win by drawing the Browns off-sides on a 4^th-and-2 play with two minutes to go in the game.  It wasn’t a pretty game, but it locked up Baltimore’s first undefeated season at home.

Prediction Record – 8-7

Ray Rice don't need no help! photo from AP

Week 17 at Cincinnati

My Prediction – Ravens Should Win

Reason – “The Bengals will be playing for Andrew Luck and not much else.”

Outcome – Ray Rice had an early 70-yard touchdown run and the Ravens turned a late fumble by Cincinnati into another Rice touchdown to produce a 24-16 win.  The Bengals did have a chance of making the playoffs had they won, so I was a little off on the Luck prediction. 

Prediction Record – 9-7

There ya go.  An extremely uneven season for the Ravens that led to an AFC North title, a first round bye and the first home playoff games since the 2006 season (in which they were also the2nd seed). Are they built for a long playoff run?  That is the million dollar question right now.  If they win their game next week then chances are they would have to go on the road to face the Patriots, and I’m not sure Flacco has the arm to win that shoot-out. 

But more on the playoffs as the days roll on.

The Good, The Bad, The Ravens

I guess it’s time to say something. I’ve been pondering what to write about them for a couple of weeks now. Even when I was in Hawaii I was thinking about them, well in a distant “I wonder what they’re up to right now while I sip this Mai Tai” kind of way. Baseball is over, hockey is settling into it’s regular season and despite Nike’s claim, basketball is still stopped. So it’s time. Time to say something about the Baltimore Ravens.

I could point out the good. They have a gaudy 5-2 record and the largest point differential in the league at 75 ( 185 points scored vs. 110 points allowed). They’ve knocked off the Steelers and the Jets. Their quarterback has more wins than anyone else since 2008. They rolled off a 21 point, second-half comeback on Sunday.

Or I could point out the bad. They are 5-2, but four other teams in the AFC have two losses as well. That makes for quite a crowd come playoff time. Those big wins against the Steelers and Jets are off-set by losses to the Titans and Jaguars. Flacco may win games but he also spent 6 straight quarters missing receivers like he was a Dr. Pepper “Million Dollar Throw” contestant. The fact that they needed to come back from 21 down at home against the Cardinals is pathetic in itself.

Normally, I don’t condone booing a home team. However, if there was ever a team that deserved some hometown derision it was the squad that walked into the locker rooms at halftime on Sunday. They had spent a game and a half looking as inept as any of the “Suck for Luck” contenders this season. It wasn’t Joe Flacco’s fault, or Cam Cameron’s fault, or the offensive line’s fault, or Edgar, Allen and Poe’s fault. It was everyone’s fault.

In my preseason preview I pegged them as a 10-6 team. I was trying to be pessimistic, with their schedule I could have been talked into them as a 14-2 or 13-3 team. Heck, even now 12-4 isn’t out of the question. Unfortunately neither is 8-8. I’ve never watched a team that is as unpredictable as this year’s Raven’s squad.

After dropping a bomb in Jacksonville, conventional internet wisdom had them taking out their frustration on a hapless Cardinals team. Instead, the Ravens spent the first half fumbling around the field incoherently. Despite the fact that they turned it around in the second half I have no confidence in them winning going into their rivalry week with Pittsburgh. Of course, that means they’ll beat the Steelers by 25.

Highlighting their inconsistency brilliantly is their quarterback Joe Flacco. Through 7 games he’s been as unpredictable as spring weather in Baltimore. Twice he’s tossed three touchdowns in a game, and three times he’s thrown for zero scores. He’s completed less than half of his passes in 2 games, he’s also completed more than sixty percent of his passes in two games. He threw for 137 yards in the Jacksonville game, in the games before and after he threw for more than 300 in each. So good luck figuring out what he’s going to do on a week-to-week basis.

Whether a team struggles or succeeds, an inordinate amount of the focus is on the quarterback. In Baltimore that goes even more so for Joe Flacco. The Charm City is quietly a cruel place to play for quarterbacks. Even though he hasn’t thrown a pass in 40 years Johnny Unitas looms large in the town. Every quarterback that laces them up for the Ravens has been compared to him (normally along the lines of “He’s no Jaaawwwwwnnnhheee U!”.

When a team struggles for consistency from week to week, the struggles are usually caused by the offensive line. The Ravens, as would any NFL team, would love to run the ball 25-30 times a game and succeed. The problem is, with their patched together line, they aren’t able to get enough push to make that successful. Nor are they able to keep away the blitzing hordes on third down situations.
Flacco has a lot of strengths as a quarterback, reading through his progressions is not one of them.

He tends to look for his primary, glance at a secondary receiver and if both options are covered immediately look for his safety blanket - the check down to Ray Rice. Unfortunately, as of late his line hasn’t even given him time to make those reads. Moving to a shotgun offense seemed to give him that extra second or two to find his open receivers and regain his confidence. It will be interesting to see if that becomes more of an option in the season as it progresses.

The Ravens need to find a way to make him feel comfortable in the offense. He is no longer a rookie learning the game, rather he is the quarterback that he is destined to be. If the organization believes that he is the long term answer it is time to develop the game plan around his strengths, not force him to change to accommodate their plays.

Settling down their quarterback will help steady the team. The defense is proving to be the best the organization has had since the Super Bowl year. Even the secondary, which I had doubts about, has proven to be good enough to shut most teams down. With the exception of the pass happy Patriots, the Ravens actually match up pretty well to the other teams that look to be playoff bound this season.

With just over half of their season remaining, and a stretch of winnable games looming after Pittsburgh, the Ravens need to find the consistency that has been lacking so far in order to remain with those front runners. It’s hard to imagine any 5-2 team facing must win games, but should they fall to the Steelers next week, Baltimore could face that exact possibility.