Two Weeks - Two Fights - Two Stories

During the pre-fight circus of the Floyd Mayweather/ Manny Pacquiao match there was a moment, sometime after Jamie Fox’s free-style version of the American anthem and before Michael Buffer’s raspy/two-pack-a-day “Lets Get Read To Rumble” where Mayweather looked up to the sky. I don’t profess to know exactly what he was thinking, but he had the look of a man that had just pulled off the longest con in the world. He also looked like a man who, in 36 minutes, would get a check for $200 million.

The last two weeks of boxing have been pretty entertaining, if for entirely different reasons.  The mega-fight was all about the build-up. It was about the spectacle around the sport. Two adversaries finally meeting in the ring. Two fighters, who at one point, had been either the best or most exciting in the sport would finally meet head-to-head.  Of course it was going to be over hyped.

There was only one chance for the fight to live up to the madness.  And that was for Pacquiao to dial the clock back to the days when he was a relentless, overwhelming, barrage of combinations and knock-outs. In the fourth round there was a moment when I knew it wasn't going to happen.

Pacquiao landed a clean left, backing Mayweather up on the ropes. Manny unleashed a small flurry of punches, some landing, most blocked.  Then....he stepped back.  Was it the smart move? Was Floyd playing possum hoping to catch Pac-Man with a counter shot?  Maybe.  But, the Manny Pacquiao of old would never have worried about that. He would have kept throwing until something landed, consequences be damned.

Whether it was the shoulder or, the fact that some of that fearlessness was forever destroyed by Juan Manual Marquez’s December 2012 counterpunch, it was not to be.  Manny landed a few punches, stirred up the crowd a handful of times, but seemed content to chase Mayweather around the ring.

So it was with much amusement to listen to the casual sports fan bitch and moan about Money Mayweather and his “dancing” and “hugging” his way to an ugly victory.  Or the “I can’t believe I paid $100 for that” tweets and comments. What else did you honestly think was going to happen?  Did you really think that Floyd would engage and stand toe-to-toe with Manny in the middle of the ring?  Hell no.

There was a time when Floyd used his skills for offense. If a fighter was there to be hit, he hit him. Try and tell Ricky Hatton that all Mayweather did was run around the ring, I think you’ll get a different story.  As he’s aged though, Pretty Boy realized he could win fights without having to get into wars.  He could throw enough punches to win a round and then use his skill to evade any real damage.

I sent a text to someone during the fight saying something along the lines of “Floyd is a better boxer in slow motion”.  In real time, some of his counter right hands didn’t look like they were doing much damage, but when HBO-time slowed down the highlights between the rounds you could see they were landing flush.  While he may not have the show stopping power of Gennedy Golovkin, he still hits hard enough to make these “active” fighters think twice about barging in with abandon.

Floyd’s greatest skill of all, is making the boxing fan care.  He’s fought the same fight enough time that we should know better, but we still watch.  He doesn’t care if we watch to see him win or to see him get knocked out. As long we fork over the money and he gets a check cut he doesn’t care.

On the other hand, James Kirkland’s greatest skill is not caring about getting punched in the face.  If there was ever a polar opposite to Mayweather’s slickness in the ring, it’s Kirkland’s fierce determination to walk forward and throw a lot of punches. Thirty-two times that strategy has worked.  Unfortunately on Saturday night, it was a recipe for disaster against Saul “Canelo” Alvarez.

For a little while it looked like it might work.  And by little while I mean a minute or so.  Kirkland, The Mandingo Warrior” waded through a couple of big shots from Alvarez and crowded the big Mexican with some power shots of his own.  Unfortunately he wasn’t able to maintain that space and midway through the first round Alvarez landed a straight right that glazed Kirkland’s eyes and sent him stumbling to the canvas.

Kirkland was able to clear his head and got back up in plenty of time to beat the count.  He tried to keep pace with the red-haired Mexican’s flurry of power shots. The Texan survived the second round on his feet, but chances of an upset were fading as it became apparent that even the biggest shots weren‘t hurting Alvarez.  Landing just about every punch he threw, Canelo kept up a steady mix of hooks to the body and straight power shots to the head.  Still Kirkland came forward trying to smother the shots while landing an occasional blow himself.

Two and a half minutes into the third it was over.  Alvarez scored his first knock down with a huge right uppercut that landed flush on Kirkland’s jaw and dropped him.  Once again the warrior pulled himself up, but the end was near. He soon found himself against the ropes with his hands down. As Canelo pawed at his chest with a straight left, Kirkland started a left hook from his hip, but Alvarez’s right was quicker.  He hit Kirkland so flush it looked like his jaw was separated from his head.  Kirkland was out on his feet, that left hook he started still tracing it’s lazy arc through the air as his body crashed to the floor.

The ref stopped the fight before Kirkland started to move. Not that it would have mattered.  The Mandingo Warrior said something about being disappointed that the ref had ended the fight, but he should be sending him a thank-you gift. Even if he had somehow beat the 10 -count (it was at least 30 seconds before we knew he wasn‘t dead), it wasn’t like he was going to change his strategy enough to keep from being knocked down again.  Jon Schorle probably saved Kirkland a few years of dementia by stopping the fight when he did.

There has been a lot of electronic ink spilled about Kirkland dropping his long-time trainer Ann Wollfe. After this is the second time he’s fought without her and both times have ended with him getting knocked down several times.  While he is obviously a better fighter with her in the corner, he should also invest in someone who teaches him how to block a punch from time to time.

So, you want to be a boxer?  Photo by Scott Halleran/Getty Images

If the Mayweather fight was the “Sweet Science” than the Canelo fight was the “of bruising” portion of Pierce Egan’s quote on boxing.  The brutal knockout kept him online for a match-up against Miguel Cotto and then a potential mega fight against Golovkin.

It was a nice refreshing palate cleanser to all of the negativity generated by Mayweather/Pacquiao and proof that boxing, despite reports of it’s imminent demise,  isn’t quite dead yet. Yes, the debacle two weeks ago didn’t do anything to win new fans, but boxing has been through this before.

There is always going to be another great fighter waiting in the ring.  Alvarez is proving that he’s not just a product of the Mexican hype-machine, but actually a bruising boxer who really will fight anyone at anytime. Golovkin (who fights May 16th) is probably the most exciting fighter to watch and maybe, someday someone of skill will want to step into the ring with him.

Will either one of them have the cross-over appeal that Pacquiao and Mayweather had? Will they break PPV records? Probably not.  But they are worth watching, and somewhere in a gym somewhere around the world the next Mayweather is lacing up the gloves.

Two Men Fought and Nothing Was Decided

Goatee = evil Manny Pacquiao?

Pacquiao vs. Marquez III. A disappointment or more of the same?  To be honest, it was a little of both.  Twelve more rounds between two great rivals that should have been met with open arms by boxing fans. Instead, it was received with disgust and naked Mexicans in sombreros.  Where did it all go wrong?

Sure, this post is about a week late in being written, but I wanted to watch the fight again (this time on a feed that didn’t resemble a scrambled porn channel) and score along with the judges.  Was the outrage I heard immediately after the fight justified or was it part of a growing anti-Pacquiao bias?

So I tuned into HBO and watched their replay prior to the Julio Cease Chavez, Jr./Peter Manfredo tilt (I thought Chavez looked good against an outclassed opponent).  After twelve rounds of championship boxing between Pacquiao and Marquez  I scored the fight a draw. That’s right 114-114, right down the middle.

Could it have gone either way?  Definitely. I was on the fence about several rounds. For instance in the eighth round I gave it to Pacquiao because he landed a left right at the bell.  If he hadn’t landed that punch I might have had to score that round a draw.

 If you’ve ever sat down and tried to score any of the three fights you know how hard it is to judge on a round-by-round basis.  Pacquiao scores by being more aggressive and throwing more punches.  Marquez scores by landing clearer, harder shots. If you throw away the first round of the first fight (Marquez down three times) and the third round of the second fight (Marquez on the canvas) the entire trilogy has been pretty much a draw.

In their latest contest, Marquez fought his perfect fight.  He was more aggressive, he kept landing left hooks to the body and straight rights to the face.  He frustrated Pacquiao early in the fight and won most of the middle rounds. Several times during the night he landed big shots flush on the Filipino’s jaw. If he had fought this way in either of the first two match-ups I think he would have won either fight.

On the other side, Pacquiao seemed tentative (Kellerman accurately described him as “muted“). He bobbed and weaved like the Manny of old, he relied on the straight left hand like the Manny of old, and yet something  was missing.  We were promised a more complete Pacquiao, one whose right hand was as dangerous as his left.  He was supposed to be at the apex of his talent, having trained harder for this fight than any other fight in his career.

That’s where the disappointment comes from.  Instead of “Manny Pacquiao” the man who broke Antonio Margarito’s face, we got Manny Pacquiao effective fighter who did just enough to win.  We wanted to see New York City’s 4th of July fireworks and instead got sparklers in the back yard.

Perhaps the newer, more evolved Pacquiao just isn’t as exciting as the raw version.  If you watch the fight again, look at how much better his defense is.  A lot of Marquez’s shots are picked off by gloves and elbows.  Manny’s jab is better and more effective. The straight left is still there, but he’s not twirling around the ring after he throws it.

Technically, there is no doubt that he is a better fighter than when the two matched up for the first time eight years ago, but as fans do we want a conventional  Pacquiao who blocks punches with his gloves instead of his face? Are we bored with a Pacquiao who wins on points and not with a Tasmanian Devil-esque flurry of punches?

So, if Marquez was better and Pacquiao more traditional, then how did Manny win the fight?  HBO’s unofficial judge, Howard Letterman, hit it right on the nose during the 4th round when he said judges lean to the flashier fighter.  When rounds are close, they will give the edge to the fighter that is more active, be it throwing punches or moving around the ring.  In this case, that man is Pacquiao.  Marquez is more a victim of his conservative, counter-punching style than he is of any grand boxing conspiracy.

There are talks of a fourth match-up between the two pugilists.  Why? If insanity is doing the same thing again and again hoping for a different outcome then Marquez is insane to think a 4th fight would be any different than the first three. The only way the outcome changes is if Marquez puts Pacquiao on the canvas, and he’s shown that he doesn’t have the power to do so at any weight limit. It’s time for both fighters to move on.

For Pacquiao that means Floyd Mayweather.  However, it seems the dynamics of that possible match up seem to have changed.  Mayweather is a stronger, faster, more annoying version of Marquez.  A devastating counter puncher with superior defensive skills and the uncanny knowledge of when to finish a fighter.  If Pacquiao struggled so much with Marquez, what chance does he stand against a fighter who has the power to knock him out?

Perhaps the close win was the best thing for those who hope for a Pacquiao/Mayweather match-up.  Pretty Boy Floyd would never risk his perfect record in a fight he didn’t think he could win.  Did Manny struggle enough against Marquez to make Mayweather think his skills are deteriorating?  That’s the $100 million question.  One that needs answering before the end of the year if they want to fight on May 5th.

Meanwhile, what lies ahead for the defeated Marquez?  Hopefully, the last image we have of the great Mexican fighter is not him sitting naked in the training room with a sombrero over his private parts somberly answering questions from Kellerman.  There is a long list of pretenders like Timothy Bradley that he can knock off and then retire with one last victory.

There is some talk of a bout with fellow countryman Eric Morales.  If this was 2005, I’d be all over that match-up, but Morales is a faded version of his former self and watching Marquez pick him apart for 12 rounds wouldn’t be fun for anyone.

In all likelihood the money will be too much to turn down for both fighters and we’ll end up seeing a fourth fight some time late next year.  Honestly, these two fighters could probably fight every year for the next five years and it would be entertaining.  The only problem is, it wouldn’t solve anything,

They Have Been Weighed. They Have Been Tested. Who Will be Found Wanting?

Seventy-two minutes. Seventy-two minutes in eight years. It doesn't seem like that much time, does it? For boxing fans it hasn't been nearly enough. Luckily for us we have the chance to see another thirty-six minutes on Saturday night. That's when Manny Pacquiao faces off against Juan Manual Marquez for the third and probably final time at MGM Grand in Las Vegas.

Without question Pacquiao is the darling of the boxing world and one of its biggest draws. With an other-worldly combination of speed and power he has dazzled fans since his 11^th round TKO of Marco Antonio Barrera in 2003. In those 8 years he has only lost once (to Eric Morales which he avenged twice) and has beaten all of the big names in weight class save for Mr. Money Mayweather.

Pacquiao has fought 17 times since the Barrera fight facing 14 different opponents. Of those 14, thirteen of them have been soundly defeated, and he sent two into retirement (Ricky Hatton and Oscar De La Hoya). Only one opponent during that stretch believes that he has never lost to the Pac Man. That man is Marquez.

They first met in 2004 and produced the fight of the year. Despite being knocked down three times in the first round and having to fight the rest of the way with a broken nose, Marquez battled to a draw. The three knockdowns showed that Marquez wasn't prepared for the speed of Pacquiao's left hand. Once he adjusted, he was able to effectively counter a majority of his opponent's attacks.

When they met for their rematch in 2008 Marquez found himself on the canvas once again, courtesy of another lethal left from the energetic Filipino. Of the four knockdowns this was the only one that I thought actually hurt Marquez.

In the 9^th round, Pacquiao's repeated straight lefts would open up a huge gash over Marquez's right eye. The kind of cut that makes you say, "Ewwwww" when trainer/cutman Nacho Beristain is shoving his finger into it to staunch the bleeding. Despite the knockdown and the blood, Marquez would battle to a split decision loss. If Judge Tom Miller had switched one round to Marquez, the relentless Mexican fighter would have won the fight.

For what it's worth, I re-watched the fights (thanks YouTube!) and scored along. In their first match I had Pacquiao winning 113-112 thanks to a 10-6 first round. In the second fight I scored it 115-113 for Pacquiao. Over the 24 rounds they fought I have Marquez winning 12, Pacquiao 11, and one round a draw (the first round in the second matchup).

Pacquiao's best round of the fights is undoubtedly the first one of their first fight. Marquez was totally unprepared for Pac Man's speed and power. I don't think any of the knockdowns really hurt Marquez, but they did put him way behind in points and left him swallowing a lot of blood as a result of the broken nose.

Marquez's shining moment came in the 8^th round of the second fight. He had Pacquiao's timing perfect and was pummeling his opponent at will. There was a brief moment when it looked like Manny might go down, and at the end of the round blood was flowing freely from a cut above his left eye.

So what makes Marquez such a difficult matchup for Pacquiao? Is it his relentless drive? Is it his counterpunching? Maybe it's his patient, subtle defense? Or could it be his awesome Dave Matthews-esque receding hairline?

Most likely it's a combination of all of those things. Marquez is willing to accept the fact that he will have to eat a few punches in order to get his shots in. When he's had his most success he's been able to bury a left hook into Manny's side and follow up with a right straight down the chute. The key is to get that right off before Pacquiao can come over the top of it with his devastating left.

So what are the chances of Marquez pulling off the upset? If you're in Vegas today you would
probably be getting close to 10-to-1 odds, so it doesn't appear likely. In the previous two fights Marquez hasn't had a problem getting to Manny, he just hasn't had the punching power to knock him on his Filipino ass. By focusing more on his upper body strength for this fight he hopes to change that.

There is a trade-off for building strength. It usually leads to a decrease in speed. At 38 years old, Marquez is already facing the natural erosion in skills that comes with aging. Putting on weight (at 145 this is heaviest he's fought at) also can be a detriment. Most small fighters struggle at higher weight classes, a fact that makes Pacquiao's success all the more mind-blowing (Pacquiao's first professional fight was at 107 pounds).

The biggest problem, however, for Marquez is going to be the evolution of Manny Pacquiao. In their first matchup, the Pac Man was an energetic, one-handed fighter who bounced around the ring like Calvin after his third bowl of Chocolate Frosted Sugar Bombs and fired viscous left hands from every angle. Sure he threw a couple of right hands, but in a disinterested "yeah I have this hand so I might as well use it" kind of way.

In the next match-up, wasn't quite as spastic in the ring. Still employing a ducking and weaving stance that was hard for Marquez to time, he also found out that using his right hand could be effective. He was able to use a jab that wasn't a factor in the first fight to set up his left and keep Marquez at bay.

Moving into the third fight we will see Pacquiao as the truly developed fighter. In his destruction of Antonio Margarito last November, he used both hands as battering rams, pummeling Margarito with lightning-fast combinations. In their previous fights Marquez, for the most part, has only had to counter lunging, one-punch attacks by Pacquiao. Now he faces a fighter who can snap off three or four big shots per rush.

As the overwhelming betting favorite it seems unlikely that Pacquiao will lose, and with the prospect of a mega-fight with Mayweather on the horizon you might think he could be looking past Marquez. I don't think he is. While he might not have the intense dislike for Marquez that he did for Margarito, Manny wants to end this trilogy with a decisive victory. He doesn't want there to be any doubt in this fight. Make no mistake he is looking to knock Marquez out. Against a viscous counterpuncher that need for a knockout can be dangerous.

For his part, not only is Marquez looking to prove he is better than Pacquiao, he is also looking to cement his place as one of the great Mexican boxers of this generation. He wants to be on the same tier as Eric Morales and Marco Antonio Barrera. A win over Pacquiao will do that. He will no longer be the third wheel, the brilliant tactician who just couldn't pull off the big victory. He will be a legend.

As for a prediction, I have Pacquiao winning by TKO in the tenth round. (That sound you heard was the rush of thousands of Vegas-ites running to the nearest sports book to lay money on Marquez.) Pac Man is just too good right now.

I think the fight unfolds much like the second, more tactical, more boxing than brawling. The difference will be that Pacquiao can now fight that style. His hand speed and combinations will be too much for the counterpunching Marquez. That's not to say Marquez won't get his shots in. Despite his improved defense, Manny still gets hit. In the face. A lot.

Keep an eye out for head butts. With Pacquiao's lunging in style, and the natural awkwardness of a southpaw facing a traditional fighter there is a good chance there will be at least one clash of heads. In their second fight, a butting of heads in the seventh round led to a small cut outside of Marquez's eye. Marquez also likes to work the body which normally leads to the occasional low blow or two. It hasn't been a huge factor yet, but should Marquez get frustrated he could go Golota on him.

In the previous 72 minutes of their fighting each fighter has been punched more than 300 times each. Seventy-five percent of those hits were of the "power" variety. I see no reason why the next 36 will be any different. Enjoy them.

Boxing Break! Is it on? Oh, it could be on!

JMM Vs Pac-Man III should be good - photo from insideboxing.com

“We’re looking to make the biggest fight possible and everyone knows what that fight is, little fella.” With those words the Floyd Mayweather camp blew new life into boxing’s greatest “Will They/Won’t They” drama. The “little fella” is, of course, a reference to Manny Pacquiao, the fighter that poses the greatest challenge to Mayweather’s unblemished legacy.

No official announcement has been made by either camp, and it was just over a week ago that Pacquiao’s promoter Bob Arum told ESPN that the fight “will never, ever happen” because Mayweather was scared of Manny’s right hand. Pac-Man’s camp is reportedly upset with Mayweather over the timing of the announcement, nine days before Pacquiao squares off against Juan Manual Marquez for the third time.

While we’re still months away from anything official expect the rhetoric to ramp up if Pacquiao stops his relentless Mexican foe on November 12th. While the Filipino is heavily favored (a quick online search shows him a -750 favorite to win) Marquez has been one of his toughest foes over the last eight years. While he should win, Manny can’t expect it to be a cake walk like the Shane Mosley fight was.

Assuming he does get through, boxing fans haven’t been this close to seeing the two best fighters in the world square off since late 2009, before their March 2010 fight was derailed over disagreements stemming from Pacquiao’s refusal to agree to Olympic-style blood testing. The disagreement turned ugly enough that earlier this year Pacquiao hit his foe with a defamation lawsuit, adding to the undefeated champions lengthening list of legal problems.

It’s sad that the March 2010 fight was cancelled, because it would have been the perfect time for the two to meet. Pacquiao was at the height of his new found fame coming off his brutal destruction of Oscar De La Hoya and Mayweather had returned from his self-imposed retirement with a dominant victory over Marquez.

Since then, despite their continued success in the ring (both fighters have easily won two fights since then), outside distractions have mounted for both fighters. Mayweather’s legal problems which include a misdemeanor battery charge against a security guard and felony charges revolving around a domestic dispute with an ex-girlfriend. Oh, and there is the harassment charge where he was found not guilty of threatening some OTHER security guards. Meanwhile Pacquiao campaigned and won a spot in the Philippine government. He’s also released a CD, put on a few concerts and crooned some tunes on late night TV. As much as either fighter will protest, those types of activities can affect their training which, in turn, can affect their fighting.

Lets face it, both fighters are two years older as well. Mayweather, at 34, is entering that age where speed starts to abandon fighters just a notch. For him, a master of escapability in the ring, to lose even a fraction of his hand or foot speed could prove disastrous against a fighter of Pacquiao’s strength.

Pac-Man, two years younger, might not be as old, but has definitely been punished more throughout his career. Even though he dominated Antonio Margarito in their 2010 match-up (the most lopsided boxing match I‘ve ever watched), he took a lot of solid punches to the face. His straight-forward, action-loving style endears him to fans, but it also leads to a lot of shots to the head. No matter who the fighter is, that kind of punishment eventually catches up with them.

Freddie Roach, Pacquiao’s trainer, has on more than one occasion stated that he doesn’t want to see his golden boy fight past 2013. The fighter himself as acknowledged that he is pondering retirement to focus more on his political career. Mayweather has already retired once and despite his legal woes, he should be set financially. With neither fighter seemingly wanting to fight into their 40’s the window for this fight (and a probable re-match) is closing rapidly.

Despite all of this, I really, really want to see this fight. Hell, I’d plan a weekend out of it. Thursday morning Darren Rovell pondered on Twitter how much the Pay Per View would cost to watch and said that he’d fork over $79.99 for it (in HD I assume). He probably isn’t far off on that estimation. It would undoubtedly be the highest grossing fight of all time.

Per ESPN, the biggest non-heavyweight boxing PPV in terms of buys and revenue was Mayweather’s match with Oscar De La Hoya in 2007. That fight brought in an estimated 2.45 million buys and almost $137 million in revenue. If Mayweather and Pacquiao finally agree to fight (Arum says his fighter is willing to agree to Olympic drug testing “without any conditions”) I wouldn’t be surprised to see this fight push 3 million buys.

Hey Floyd, spread the love!

Both fighters appeal to non-boxing fans. Heck, even the Duchess watched Pac-Man take down Margarito. There is a natural storyline built in with Pacquiao as the hardworking, outgoing hero and Floyd as the charismatic villain. Sports Illustrated did an excellent job profiling Mayweather before his fight with Victor Ortiz, detailing some of the more outrageous acts portrayed by “Money Mayweather”.

Without a dominant American heavyweight fighting these days, this fight would be boxing’s best chance of reclaiming some of the fans that they’ve lost to MMA over the last decade. Both of these fighters have legitmate claims to the pound-for-pound title. Not only that, but they are the marquee fighters in a weight class that has its share of decent boxers. Despite his meltdown against Mayweather, Ortiz isn’t a bad boxer, neither is Amir Khan or Tim Bradley.

The welterweight and light welterweight classes have become the focal point of boxing over the last decade as the boxers have increased their speed and power on the whole leading to some pretty damn good matches. To have their two best wage war would be a glorious opportunity for a sagging industry.

Time will tell if this nothing more than a boxer hyping a fight he never plans on fighting. Hundreds of things can still go wrong, from the choice of venue to the split of the money to the color of the gloves. However, it would probably be one of the biggest sports disappointments in out generation should these two not meet. But, hey, at least Floyd didn’t promise his next bout to be a “game changer”.