Two Men Fought and Nothing Was Decided

Goatee = evil Manny Pacquiao?

Pacquiao vs. Marquez III. A disappointment or more of the same?  To be honest, it was a little of both.  Twelve more rounds between two great rivals that should have been met with open arms by boxing fans. Instead, it was received with disgust and naked Mexicans in sombreros.  Where did it all go wrong?

Sure, this post is about a week late in being written, but I wanted to watch the fight again (this time on a feed that didn’t resemble a scrambled porn channel) and score along with the judges.  Was the outrage I heard immediately after the fight justified or was it part of a growing anti-Pacquiao bias?

So I tuned into HBO and watched their replay prior to the Julio Cease Chavez, Jr./Peter Manfredo tilt (I thought Chavez looked good against an outclassed opponent).  After twelve rounds of championship boxing between Pacquiao and Marquez  I scored the fight a draw. That’s right 114-114, right down the middle.

Could it have gone either way?  Definitely. I was on the fence about several rounds. For instance in the eighth round I gave it to Pacquiao because he landed a left right at the bell.  If he hadn’t landed that punch I might have had to score that round a draw.

 If you’ve ever sat down and tried to score any of the three fights you know how hard it is to judge on a round-by-round basis.  Pacquiao scores by being more aggressive and throwing more punches.  Marquez scores by landing clearer, harder shots. If you throw away the first round of the first fight (Marquez down three times) and the third round of the second fight (Marquez on the canvas) the entire trilogy has been pretty much a draw.

In their latest contest, Marquez fought his perfect fight.  He was more aggressive, he kept landing left hooks to the body and straight rights to the face.  He frustrated Pacquiao early in the fight and won most of the middle rounds. Several times during the night he landed big shots flush on the Filipino’s jaw. If he had fought this way in either of the first two match-ups I think he would have won either fight.

On the other side, Pacquiao seemed tentative (Kellerman accurately described him as “muted“). He bobbed and weaved like the Manny of old, he relied on the straight left hand like the Manny of old, and yet something  was missing.  We were promised a more complete Pacquiao, one whose right hand was as dangerous as his left.  He was supposed to be at the apex of his talent, having trained harder for this fight than any other fight in his career.

That’s where the disappointment comes from.  Instead of “Manny Pacquiao” the man who broke Antonio Margarito’s face, we got Manny Pacquiao effective fighter who did just enough to win.  We wanted to see New York City’s 4th of July fireworks and instead got sparklers in the back yard.

Perhaps the newer, more evolved Pacquiao just isn’t as exciting as the raw version.  If you watch the fight again, look at how much better his defense is.  A lot of Marquez’s shots are picked off by gloves and elbows.  Manny’s jab is better and more effective. The straight left is still there, but he’s not twirling around the ring after he throws it.

Technically, there is no doubt that he is a better fighter than when the two matched up for the first time eight years ago, but as fans do we want a conventional  Pacquiao who blocks punches with his gloves instead of his face? Are we bored with a Pacquiao who wins on points and not with a Tasmanian Devil-esque flurry of punches?

So, if Marquez was better and Pacquiao more traditional, then how did Manny win the fight?  HBO’s unofficial judge, Howard Letterman, hit it right on the nose during the 4th round when he said judges lean to the flashier fighter.  When rounds are close, they will give the edge to the fighter that is more active, be it throwing punches or moving around the ring.  In this case, that man is Pacquiao.  Marquez is more a victim of his conservative, counter-punching style than he is of any grand boxing conspiracy.

There are talks of a fourth match-up between the two pugilists.  Why? If insanity is doing the same thing again and again hoping for a different outcome then Marquez is insane to think a 4th fight would be any different than the first three. The only way the outcome changes is if Marquez puts Pacquiao on the canvas, and he’s shown that he doesn’t have the power to do so at any weight limit. It’s time for both fighters to move on.

For Pacquiao that means Floyd Mayweather.  However, it seems the dynamics of that possible match up seem to have changed.  Mayweather is a stronger, faster, more annoying version of Marquez.  A devastating counter puncher with superior defensive skills and the uncanny knowledge of when to finish a fighter.  If Pacquiao struggled so much with Marquez, what chance does he stand against a fighter who has the power to knock him out?

Perhaps the close win was the best thing for those who hope for a Pacquiao/Mayweather match-up.  Pretty Boy Floyd would never risk his perfect record in a fight he didn’t think he could win.  Did Manny struggle enough against Marquez to make Mayweather think his skills are deteriorating?  That’s the $100 million question.  One that needs answering before the end of the year if they want to fight on May 5th.

Meanwhile, what lies ahead for the defeated Marquez?  Hopefully, the last image we have of the great Mexican fighter is not him sitting naked in the training room with a sombrero over his private parts somberly answering questions from Kellerman.  There is a long list of pretenders like Timothy Bradley that he can knock off and then retire with one last victory.

There is some talk of a bout with fellow countryman Eric Morales.  If this was 2005, I’d be all over that match-up, but Morales is a faded version of his former self and watching Marquez pick him apart for 12 rounds wouldn’t be fun for anyone.

In all likelihood the money will be too much to turn down for both fighters and we’ll end up seeing a fourth fight some time late next year.  Honestly, these two fighters could probably fight every year for the next five years and it would be entertaining.  The only problem is, it wouldn’t solve anything,

They Have Been Weighed. They Have Been Tested. Who Will be Found Wanting?

Seventy-two minutes. Seventy-two minutes in eight years. It doesn't seem like that much time, does it? For boxing fans it hasn't been nearly enough. Luckily for us we have the chance to see another thirty-six minutes on Saturday night. That's when Manny Pacquiao faces off against Juan Manual Marquez for the third and probably final time at MGM Grand in Las Vegas.

Without question Pacquiao is the darling of the boxing world and one of its biggest draws. With an other-worldly combination of speed and power he has dazzled fans since his 11^th round TKO of Marco Antonio Barrera in 2003. In those 8 years he has only lost once (to Eric Morales which he avenged twice) and has beaten all of the big names in weight class save for Mr. Money Mayweather.

Pacquiao has fought 17 times since the Barrera fight facing 14 different opponents. Of those 14, thirteen of them have been soundly defeated, and he sent two into retirement (Ricky Hatton and Oscar De La Hoya). Only one opponent during that stretch believes that he has never lost to the Pac Man. That man is Marquez.

They first met in 2004 and produced the fight of the year. Despite being knocked down three times in the first round and having to fight the rest of the way with a broken nose, Marquez battled to a draw. The three knockdowns showed that Marquez wasn't prepared for the speed of Pacquiao's left hand. Once he adjusted, he was able to effectively counter a majority of his opponent's attacks.

When they met for their rematch in 2008 Marquez found himself on the canvas once again, courtesy of another lethal left from the energetic Filipino. Of the four knockdowns this was the only one that I thought actually hurt Marquez.

In the 9^th round, Pacquiao's repeated straight lefts would open up a huge gash over Marquez's right eye. The kind of cut that makes you say, "Ewwwww" when trainer/cutman Nacho Beristain is shoving his finger into it to staunch the bleeding. Despite the knockdown and the blood, Marquez would battle to a split decision loss. If Judge Tom Miller had switched one round to Marquez, the relentless Mexican fighter would have won the fight.

For what it's worth, I re-watched the fights (thanks YouTube!) and scored along. In their first match I had Pacquiao winning 113-112 thanks to a 10-6 first round. In the second fight I scored it 115-113 for Pacquiao. Over the 24 rounds they fought I have Marquez winning 12, Pacquiao 11, and one round a draw (the first round in the second matchup).

Pacquiao's best round of the fights is undoubtedly the first one of their first fight. Marquez was totally unprepared for Pac Man's speed and power. I don't think any of the knockdowns really hurt Marquez, but they did put him way behind in points and left him swallowing a lot of blood as a result of the broken nose.

Marquez's shining moment came in the 8^th round of the second fight. He had Pacquiao's timing perfect and was pummeling his opponent at will. There was a brief moment when it looked like Manny might go down, and at the end of the round blood was flowing freely from a cut above his left eye.

So what makes Marquez such a difficult matchup for Pacquiao? Is it his relentless drive? Is it his counterpunching? Maybe it's his patient, subtle defense? Or could it be his awesome Dave Matthews-esque receding hairline?

Most likely it's a combination of all of those things. Marquez is willing to accept the fact that he will have to eat a few punches in order to get his shots in. When he's had his most success he's been able to bury a left hook into Manny's side and follow up with a right straight down the chute. The key is to get that right off before Pacquiao can come over the top of it with his devastating left.

So what are the chances of Marquez pulling off the upset? If you're in Vegas today you would
probably be getting close to 10-to-1 odds, so it doesn't appear likely. In the previous two fights Marquez hasn't had a problem getting to Manny, he just hasn't had the punching power to knock him on his Filipino ass. By focusing more on his upper body strength for this fight he hopes to change that.

There is a trade-off for building strength. It usually leads to a decrease in speed. At 38 years old, Marquez is already facing the natural erosion in skills that comes with aging. Putting on weight (at 145 this is heaviest he's fought at) also can be a detriment. Most small fighters struggle at higher weight classes, a fact that makes Pacquiao's success all the more mind-blowing (Pacquiao's first professional fight was at 107 pounds).

The biggest problem, however, for Marquez is going to be the evolution of Manny Pacquiao. In their first matchup, the Pac Man was an energetic, one-handed fighter who bounced around the ring like Calvin after his third bowl of Chocolate Frosted Sugar Bombs and fired viscous left hands from every angle. Sure he threw a couple of right hands, but in a disinterested "yeah I have this hand so I might as well use it" kind of way.

In the next match-up, wasn't quite as spastic in the ring. Still employing a ducking and weaving stance that was hard for Marquez to time, he also found out that using his right hand could be effective. He was able to use a jab that wasn't a factor in the first fight to set up his left and keep Marquez at bay.

Moving into the third fight we will see Pacquiao as the truly developed fighter. In his destruction of Antonio Margarito last November, he used both hands as battering rams, pummeling Margarito with lightning-fast combinations. In their previous fights Marquez, for the most part, has only had to counter lunging, one-punch attacks by Pacquiao. Now he faces a fighter who can snap off three or four big shots per rush.

As the overwhelming betting favorite it seems unlikely that Pacquiao will lose, and with the prospect of a mega-fight with Mayweather on the horizon you might think he could be looking past Marquez. I don't think he is. While he might not have the intense dislike for Marquez that he did for Margarito, Manny wants to end this trilogy with a decisive victory. He doesn't want there to be any doubt in this fight. Make no mistake he is looking to knock Marquez out. Against a viscous counterpuncher that need for a knockout can be dangerous.

For his part, not only is Marquez looking to prove he is better than Pacquiao, he is also looking to cement his place as one of the great Mexican boxers of this generation. He wants to be on the same tier as Eric Morales and Marco Antonio Barrera. A win over Pacquiao will do that. He will no longer be the third wheel, the brilliant tactician who just couldn't pull off the big victory. He will be a legend.

As for a prediction, I have Pacquiao winning by TKO in the tenth round. (That sound you heard was the rush of thousands of Vegas-ites running to the nearest sports book to lay money on Marquez.) Pac Man is just too good right now.

I think the fight unfolds much like the second, more tactical, more boxing than brawling. The difference will be that Pacquiao can now fight that style. His hand speed and combinations will be too much for the counterpunching Marquez. That's not to say Marquez won't get his shots in. Despite his improved defense, Manny still gets hit. In the face. A lot.

Keep an eye out for head butts. With Pacquiao's lunging in style, and the natural awkwardness of a southpaw facing a traditional fighter there is a good chance there will be at least one clash of heads. In their second fight, a butting of heads in the seventh round led to a small cut outside of Marquez's eye. Marquez also likes to work the body which normally leads to the occasional low blow or two. It hasn't been a huge factor yet, but should Marquez get frustrated he could go Golota on him.

In the previous 72 minutes of their fighting each fighter has been punched more than 300 times each. Seventy-five percent of those hits were of the "power" variety. I see no reason why the next 36 will be any different. Enjoy them.