Orioles Victory Card Number 45: A Look at Topps Living Set

Baltimore Orioles Victory Number 45: 14-2 over the Kansas City Royals

2019 Topps Living Set John Means (print run 2477)

The latest Baltimore Orioles entry into Topps grand experiment picked up the win Friday night in Kansas City. After falling behind early due to a Jorge Solar home run Means sat back and watched his offense take over. By the time he exited the game after seven innings of work he had a nifty 10-2 lead. The O's added four more over the next two innings to finish off one of their more lopsided wins of the season.

It's Mean's second win in a row and the second game in a row that he's worked seven innings. It appears that he has put aside whatever was troubling him on the mound after the All Star Break. He becomes the eighth Orioles in franchise history to win ten games as a rookie and the second Oriole rookie to be featured in Topps open-ended Living Set series.

For those not familiar with the concept, last season Topps decided to start an online-only set that would feature every player to ever suit up for a major league team. The cards are released three at a time every week. Once the week is up they no longer make any more of the cards, which results in fairly limited print runs. The weekly release usually features a current veteran player, a rookie, and a retired player. So far, over the two years, seven Orioles have been featured over all. They are, in order and with their print runs:

Manny Machado (6516)
Joey Rickard (5791)
Cal Ripken, Jr. (6423)
Trey Mancini (3490)
Cedric Mullins (3190)
Jim Palmer (3252)
John Means (2477)

Two rookies, three current veterans, and two retired players is a pretty even mix and leaves plenty of more options for future releases. Having seven players already featured puts the O's pretty much in the middle of the pack when it comes to team representation.

One of the little quirks of the series is that Topps plans on releasing only one card of each player. So, for instance, Nick Markakis has a card as an Atlanta Brave. That means Topps will not release a version of him in an Orioles uniform. The one exception is if a current player is traded. That's how Manny Machado ended up in an Orioles uniform and a Dodgers uniform.

Now that's it's almost two years in, I'm torn on the set. I really like the idea of a never ending set that will continue long after I'm dead. I'm also intrigued by the fact that at some point in 2034 Topps is going to have to release an Orioles Rocky Coppinger card.

Overall it appears that interest is leveling out from collectors. It seems the average print run is between 2,500 and 3,000 this season when last year it was closer to 3,500-4,000. Even the peak cards aren't peaking quite as high. Last year Ronald Acuna and Juan Soto were the big rookies and they sold 46,809 and 28,572 respectively. This year Vlad, Jr. peaked out at 27,749 and Fernando Tatis only sold 10,099.

Don't feel too bad for Topps. Even if everyone who bought a Means card, one of the lowest print runs they've had, spent the bare minimum ($4.99 as part of the three card bundle at $14.99, if you buy them one at a time they're $7.99) they still raked in about $12,000 just for that card. Even with some of the profit skimmed out due to free shipping, they're still making money.  So much so they expanded the idea to Star Wars and Champions League cards.

Initially I was buying the three card bundle with the hopes of selling off the two non-Oriole cards and at least breaking even. That hasn't exactly been the way it's worked out. The non-star cards aren't really moving that well in the secondary market, at least at higher prices. I'm at the point where I'm ready to post them at .99 cents in auction and take whatever comes.

Now I just pick up one Oriole card when they're released and ignore the others. I may pick up a couple of Adley cards once they come out in 2022 (he may be the one Orioles to crack the 10,000 mark if he continues to progress), and probably two Eddie Murray cards when they're released, but other than that I'll keep trudging along. And yes I will be personally offended if they release Murray in a Dodgers or Indians uniform.

I imagine there are some people out there trying to collect the entire set (currently up to 231 cards) but that is a rather expensive endeavor. I imagine that the bulk of the buyers are team collectors like myself that are just buying when their favorite team has a player represented. That's boosted by the flippers and prospectors that swoop in when a big name rookie is featured.

It'll be interesting how the set moves forward (will Topps start printing variations to drum up business) or will they keep trucking along? Who will be featured in their 00 cards (300, 400, 500, etc)? So far Babe Ruth was 100 (14,976) and Mike Trout was 200 (22,017).

What are your thoughts on Topps Living Set? Do you collect?

Orioles Victory Card 11 : A tale of two prospects

Orioles Victory Number 11: 5-4 over the Chicago White Sox

2019 Topps Dylan Bundy


Baseball is a funny game and projecting success or failure of prospects is more or less a shot in the dark. Of all of the professional sports picking which player will succeed and which will be selling cars three years after they're drafted baseball has to be the toughest. It's also the longest journey for prospects. Kids drafted this summer may not make an impact for three or four years.  And that's for the ones drafted in the top two or three rounds.

Even if those prospects make it to the majors, year-in and year-out success can be tough to maintain. Just because someone was a first round pick doesn't mean he is going to win 20 games. Vice versa, just because a player is drafted in the 46th round doesn't mean he is going to be a career journeyman. Sometimes that 46th round pick can be leading a team in victories while the first round pick is just searching for a start where he doesn't give up a home run.

In 2011, the Baltimore Orioles made Dylan Bundy their first round pick and the fourth person chosen in the major league draft. He was the fourth pitcher taken following Gerrit Cole (Pirates), Danny Hultzen (Mariners), and Trevor Bauer (Diamondbacks). It took them all summer to sign the strapping righthanded high-school pitcher from Oklahoma, but with his skill set (two breaking balls and a bat-breaking 98 MPH fastball) the consensus was that he wouldn't be long in the minors.

That same year, way down in the 46th round - a round where favors are cashed in and family friends are drafted, the Atlanta Braves selected John Means, another high school hurler from fly-over country. According to Means, he was surprised at being drafted and was injured at the time the scout came out to visit him in Kansas City.  The scout actually advised against him signing at the time and so Means went to college. After a year at a nearby community college, Means ended up at West Virginia and then, after his junior season, was drafted in the 11th round by the Orioles in 2014.

By 2014, Bundy had already made his major league debut, a 2-appearance, 2-inning cup of coffee in 2012, been subject to a pitch count controversy, and was recovering from Tommy John surgery. He was also in the middle of a 5-year $6+ million contact. He was also a leading figure in the next wave of great Orioles pitchers that would return the organization to their former glory.

After sailing through the minors in his first year in professional baseball (from Delmarva to the majors in just one summer) the pain in his elbow kept him on the shelf for over a year. Recovery and rehab consumed all of 2013 and the beginning of 2014. He lasted just nine semi-productive appearances in Fredrick and Aberdeen before shoulder pain shut him down for the rest of the summer.

Means shared roster time with Bundy on that 2014 Aberdeen IronBirds. Following a brief stay in rookie ball, the left-hander made nine starts in Aberdeen and pitched fairly well, striking out 33 and walking only 2. He would spend the next four years working his way up through the system, never once making a top-prospects list for the Orioles, but also never getting to the point where he was in danger of being released. He gave up hits, but walked few and kept the ball in the park.

In 119 minor league starts from 2014-2018 Means had a pedestrian Win/Loss record (35 and 41) and an uninspiring 1.323 WHIP. There were some positives, he only walked 2 per game and gave up .8 home runs per game - a dreadfully important stat for pitching in the bandbox that is Camden Yards. With the Orioles in complete burn down mode, he earned a late-season call-up to the majors. He appeared in the first game of a double header against the Red Sox and gave up five runs on six hits in a 19-3 blowout. He didn't walk anyone but did give up a 3-run homer to J.D. Martinez.

Bundy had pitched in the game prior to Means' debut and lasted about as long (3 innings) and also surrendered a home run, a 2-run shot by Mookie Betts. He was saddled with the loss, his 16th of the season. The home run was the 39th out of 41 that he would give up during a trying season.

He was no longer the upper-90s power pitcher that had debuted with such promise six years earlier. That electric fastball, when left in the middle of the plate, was knocked around by hitters in ballparks all across the American League.  Bundy is still the de facto ace on the Orioles, now more by attrition than by sheer talent.

There are moments when he can look untouchable. He spots the fastball and then mixes in a sharp breaking slider that has hitters looking foolish. It's still there, that spark of a dominating pitcher, but all too often he labors around the strike zone. He fails to hit the corners and falls behind in counts. Then he is forced to come over the heart of the plate, and there it is extremely vulnerable. Despite several years in the majors he is still learning to pitch within his current talents. He now has to be more Greg Maddux than Roger Clemens.

Meanwhile, John Means has succeeded by being John Means. Mix speeds and pitches (according to FanGraphs he uses his change-up about 33% of the time and his fastball about 54% of the time with an 11 MPH difference between the two). He works fast and doesn't give up home runs. Well, at least until his last start when the White Sox tagged him for two bombs and jumped his hard hit percentage from 16% to 20%.

All of Means stats come with the usual small sample size warning. As he pitches more, the hitters will develop a "book" on him. His tendencies will become known and it's on him to figure out the next step, how to get major league hitters out when they know what you're throwing.

The summer is long, especially if you have any investment in the Orioles, and John Means may never win another game in the majors. Bundy could figure it out and become a dominant, soft-tossing ace.

For the record, John Means currently has zero officially licensed baseball cards. There are some minor league cards floating around, but he has yet to have one issued by Topps or even by Panini. On the other hand, according to the Trading Card Database, Bundy has 1,064. That will most likely change over the summer as Means will pop up Topps Update series and a handful of other releases.

Orioles Victory Card # 2: Well...this was unexpected

Orioles Victory Number 2: 7-5 over the New York Yankees

2002 Fleer Ultra Brook Fordyce

If you had the Orioles taking two out of three from the Yankees on opening weekend, well you're better at this than I am. I was thinking one of three would be good and if they were at least competitive for all three, but lost, that would be ok as well.

Instead, timely offense, Yankee mistakes and a cavalcade of relievers all led to the O's finishing up the weekend in second place, mere percentage points out of first. This could be the high point of the season (if you're a glass half empty person) or the beginning of a super fun summer (if you like the glass being half full).

One of the fun surprises was the animated actions of Pedro Severino. It was a delight seeing him pump his fist after strikes and emphatically position his glove to remind the pitcher where he wanted the pitch to be.  As a former catcher (through high school, at least) I remember there were certain pitchers that needed a little extra support or encouragement. Either they didn't pay attention that much or were quick to get down on themselves if something went wrong.

Watching him pump up Dylan Bundy throughout the first four innings was great. Hopefully, that's something that can continue throughout the season. As for Bundy, there were some positives to take from his start. He only made it through 3.2 innings, but he did strike out 7 and more importantly did not allow a home run. That's something that only happened in 9 of his 31 starts last season and only once in his last 15 appearances. 

The five walks were a bit of a bummer and the biggest reason he couldn't make it out of the fourth inning, but it's still a positive start for him. There were five flyballs hit against him, but nothing that came close to leaving the yard. That's quite an accomplishment against the Yankees. He'll get to face them in his next start in Camden Yards this weekend, hopefully the results are the same.

John Means bailed the pitching staff out with a solid 3+ innings of work. He racked up 5 strikeouts of his own by mostly featuring his change-up. It was working so well that he basically broke Giancarlo Stanton  with a change-up to end the jam the Orioles were in in the fourth inning. I'm all for him rolling through the AL East throwing his change-up 45.6% of the time. Just keep throwing it until they hit it.

On to the Blue Jays!