One, Two, Three, FOUR - Now Go Win One More

Somewhere in the three or four posts that I’ve written about this series I’m sure I mentioned that it would be in the Lightning’s best interest to keep the game five-on-five as much as possible.  So what do they do?  Score all of their goals with the man advantage in a 3-2 victory that puts the Red Wings on the brink of elimination in the first round series.  As usual my prognostication skills are spot on!

Moving young Jonathan Drouin to the point on the first power play unit seems to have sparked the struggling unit as they converted on three of their five opportunities. Drouin picked up assists on all three goal. The Prodigal Son had his breakout game as he tied a post-season Lightning record with his 3 helpers and was dancing with the puck all night long.

Drouin was skating circles around red uniforms all night.  Photo by Greg Shamus Getty

Detroit’s Luke Glendening and his linemates did another stellar job of shutting down the Lightning’s top playmakers as Tyler Johnson, Nikita Kucherov and Alex Killorn were shut out at even strength during both games at Joe Louis Arena. I’m sure Johnson (who did manage one assist in the game) will be glad to match up against someone other than Glendening when the series returns to Tampa and the Lightning get to change lines last.

Even though they might not have scored at even strength, the Lightning played much, much better than they did in Game 3.  They drove most of the action in the first period as they fired 14 shots on net in the first 20 minutes of the game.  Since they only managed 16 shots in total in the previous game, things were looking pretty positive - especially since they also had a 1-0 lead.

They added another 11 shots in the second (and another goal), mostly in the first half of the period.  Then, the wheels kind of came off for a bit.  Drouin stumbled on a check and allowed Luke Glendening to slip around him and set up Darren Helm for a goal that sliced the Lightning lead in half.  Detroit pressed the advantage for the rest of the period and you could feel the momentum swinging.

As the period started winding down, Gustav Nyquist made contact with Ben Bishop.  Bishop, who is a large individual went down like he got hit with a steel chair.  I’m not saying that he embellished, but somewhere in Montreal Carey Price applauded quietly as the refs called Nyquist for interference.  As ironclad proof that karma exists in sports, Nyquist bounded from the penalty box after his two minutes of reflection and scored the game tying goal with 10 seconds left in the period.

Joe Louis was rocking and all of the hard work that the Lightning had put forward in the first periods looked like it was coming undone.  It was probably for the best that the period ended at that point as Tampa Bay was on their heels.  Seventeen minutes in the locker room helped get them back on their feet and they came out battling in the third.

It was a tight period with both teams getting chances.  At the 7:29 point the game turned.  It’s possible that the series turned as well.  Dylan Larkin, the precocious young Detroit forward, made a great move in front of the net and lifted a backhand over Bishop’s shoulder and under the crossbar.  The announcer claimed it was a goal, all of the people in the stands thought it went in, the players on the ice thought it went in.  Basically everyone but the refs thought it went on and play continued for several disjointed moments.

So close young Mr. Larkin?  Photo by Dave Reginek/ NHLI Getty

Upon review the puck went off the underside of the bar, behind Bishop, out of the crease and just past Larkin. It clearly never went in and the game remained tied.  If Larkin scores, the lid blows off the joint, the Wings have ALL of the momentum and the Lightning have to start chasing a goal.  Instead it’s tied and seven minutes later Tampa Bay finds themselves with one last power play.

In a tied playoff game, the last five minutes of the third period might as well be the first five minutes of sudden death.  It certainly felt that way Tuesday night.  When Jonathan Ericsson slammed his stick into the back of Ondrej Palat and drew a crosscheck, there was the feeling that they really, really needed to score.  And they did.

With time winding down, Drouin found himself at the right hash mark with the puck and a semi-clear shot at the net. He drew back as if to shoot, but instead slid a pass to a surprisingly wide open Palat in front of the net.  All the Czech had to do was redirect into the net - he did.  And then there was joy on the Tampa bench.  The Lightning had the lead and they held on to it. Now they get to go back to Amalie with a chance to end the series.

Drouin’s play in this series makes his situation extremely unique.  He has answered the challenge presented by the coaching staff. He has stepped his game offensively and been the strongest player on the puck in the offensive zone.  Kucherov and Johnson might have all of the goals, but Drouin has been on the puck a lot during the first four games.

At the worst he’s increasing his trade value. At best he’s proving that he could fill the hole voided if Steven Stamkos does decide to bolt from the team.  Of course, he could have done this three months ago if he had accepted his punishment and just played his ass off in Syracuse.

It will be interesting to see how his play continues as the playoffs continue.  He has shown his elite talent in stretches before, but then seems to taper off and disappear.  Will he continue to play with the confidence and aggression that he has played with so far or will he relax and start coasting again?

If I was wrong about special teams, at least I got the Victor Hedman thing right. Despite only picking up 1 point in the first four games, The Big Swede has been logging a ton of ice time.  He has been over 26 minutes in every game except Game Two (where he did spend an inordinate amount of time in the penalty box) and logged a Duncan Keith-like 30 minutes in Game 4 despite Coach Cooper dressing 7 defensemen.

Matt Tamorina got the call as the extra blue liner, but was barely a footnote in the game as he played less than three minutes.  According to the CBC broadcasters one of the reasons he was dressed was because there was questions about Jason Garrison’s health after he took a slash at the end of Game 3.

Garrison played almost 17 minutes and picked up an assist, but looked slower than normal.  Several times some of the faster Detroit forwards were working him pretty hard, especially when he was killing penalties. Both Garrison and Braydon Coburn struggled at times with the speed Larkin, Tomas Totar and Andreas Athanasius (who I thought was one of Detroit’s best forwards) brought to the game. Anton Stralman’s absence was very noticeable during that stretch of 15 minutes or so when Detroit was pushing for the lead.

The Lightning survived and have a chance to move on.  With the Islanders and Panthers looking like they might be engaged in a pretty intense series, having a few extra days of rest would be most beneficial for Tampa Bay.

The Hopeful Chase 3 Stars:

3. Petr Mrazek - Without his play in the first period, the Wings are probably down by two or three goals.  He wasn’t the problem for the Wings as he made several great saves throughout the game.

2. Jonathan Drouin - Three assists and several close chances for the young guy.  It is fun watching him with the puck in tight spaces. His hands are incredible, but he has to make sure he doesn’t get too pass-happy.  Defenders are giving him space because they think he might shoot, if he takes that out of his arsenal, he might find a little less space to work with.

1. Nikita Kucherov - Two more goals and an assist for the Russian dynamo. Not only that, but he also fired 7 shots at the net.  Somehow he keeps finding himself open at the right circle and he hasn’t been missing from there.  The first goal was a one-timer on a pass that was in his skates. It was a remarkable job of adjusting his body in position to get a shot off.

Did Matt Carle Get a Point?

Nope.  Drouin took all of the assists!  He was second on the defense with 19:39 of ice time including a whopping 4 minutes of short handed time.  That’s almost too much for my heart to take, but he was up to the task as he helped the team kill off four more Detroit power plays. He has quietly been the second best defenseman in this series.

Three the Hard Way

Fresh Dressed cause I shop atModell's.....

So another playoff game that I missed most of because of work, but from what I read online and Twitter (after the game, of course, because I would never check Twitter at work) it wasn't the finest hour for the Tampa Bay Lightning. Based on the final score of 2-0 for the other guys I would have to agree. Just because I didn't see most of the game doesn't mean I don't have opinions. Let's go over three thoughts from Game 3 of the first round.

1. You didn't think it would be this easy did you?

What have the Lightning done the easy way this year? All year it's been a struggle. Whether it is trying to score a power play goal, sign the best goal scorer in their history, or ice an entirely healthy team everything has been harder than a fat man putting a wet suit on. So why would winning a playoff series be any easier?

When Coach Cooper had last change on home ice he was able to get a favorable matchup for Tyler and the Killer K's (damn it, I'm making this work!). However, in Detroit it was a different story. The hottest line for the Lightning was held without a shot and net and the rest of their teammates only mustered 16. Peter Mrazek made the start for the Red Wings and was rarely tested throughout the 60 minutes as Detroit managed to clog things up and keep the Lightning on the perimeter.

Hey, did you know his mask glows in the dark? Photo by Greg Shamus/ Getty

The Bolts didn't do themselves any favors with their endless march to the penalty to the penalty box. The Red Wings had another 7 power plays and even though they didn't score on any of them, it still interrupted the 5-on-5 play and kept the Lightning from finding any balance. According to Twitter it was a case of the refs calling a one-sided game which, having not watched the game, I can't really argue. The common beef seemed to be that the Red Wings got away with their typical brand of interference and holding while the Lightning were getting called for every infraction. Lets face it, power plays aren't helping the Lightning win, especially on the road (10% success during the regular season!)

They have to be betting Game 4 and stay out of the box. They are the better team at even strength and they need to play at that level as much as possible. Speaking of stooping to their level:

2. Brian Boyle and the chicken dance.

Sigh. Should Justin Abdelkader dropped his mitts and fought Boyle? Probably. Should Boyle have challenged him earlier in the game? Probably. Do the Lightning need to knock this shit off? Definitely. Standing up for yourself and bullying the other team a bit isn't a bad thing, letting them get under your skin and off your game is another thing.

I think Boyle has the reach. Photo by Greg Shamus/ Getty

Boyle is there to be a impediment to the Red Wings especially in front of the net. Pierre McGuire adequately (hey, he can't be wrong ALL the time) dubbed him, “The Human Eclipse”. While he is equipped to put Abdelkader in his place, it doesn't mean he should be trying to do it at the end of the game. If you're going to defend Mike Blunden's honor, square off in the first period and get it out of the way.

The chicken act was pretty damn funny. And let's not forget that he has only one less goal than the trio of Dylan Larkin, Hank Zetterberg and Pavel Datsyuk.

3. A team is not in trouble....

..until it loses a game on home ice. C'mon. I didn't watch the game. I have to throw one cliché in this article. However, just because something is cliché, doesn't mean it isn't true. The Lightning still hold the hammer in this series. If they remember to shoot the puck on net in Game 4 and score some goals (mark it down, Jason Garrison game-winner) they will go back to Tampa with the chance to close out the series.

It wasn't like the Red Wings whipped them up and down the ice. Did they generate a lot of chances? No, but they did still do a lot of little things well. They continued to block shots and despite the Red Wings having SEVEN power plays they only gave up 30 shots. I thought Jonathan Drouin had another good game, during the 10 minutes of play I did watch he was forchecking like a crazy man and generated 3 or 4 turnovers. Heck, if nothing else he is driving his trade value back up.

Game 3 was a do-or-die game for Detroit. If they had lost, they don't come back. For the Lightning it would have been a nice game to win, but it a loss also helps them remember that they can't just throw their sticks on the ice and win (“throw the sticks on the ice and win” is a registered trademark to the I Couldn't Stand Barry Melrose As Lightning Coach LLC and cannot be used without express written consent).

My favorite Cooper look, The "You're an idiot" look.  Photo by Dave Raginek NHLI/Getty

All throughout the season, when the Lightning didn't HAVE to win, they didn't. They usually played like crap. Game 4 is a little different. If they lose, that's a little more hope for the Red Wings, and as Andy Dufresne reminds us, “Hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things, and no good thing ever dies.

Wait, what? No we don't want them to have any hope. Hope sucks. Die Hope Die!

Three Stars of the Game:

No idea. So let me give a little unsolicited advice to fans of both teams. Lightning fans: settle down, the refs don't have anything against the Lightning. They may be inept, but they are not bias. Stop that shit, conspiracy theories don't look good when you have a Stanley Cup banner in your closet.

Detroit fans: Stop acting like Abdelkader is some kind of victim in all of this. Even if he was “jumped” by two players at the end of Game 2, you don't keep throwing punches into the back of the head of a player who is on the ice – that's not cool, that's how people get hurt badly.

And what's the deal with Journey? Honestly, the song references “South Detroit” so you act like its some kind of geographical cornerstone to your very fandom? I admit it is damn fun to sing, but its one of those weird songs with a catchy tune that is kind of depressing when you think about the lyrics. Don't stop believing because your life kind of sucks. Steve Perry wants to hold onto this “feeling” because not much else is going right.

Oh and if you're shopping at Modell's I could use a new hoodie.

Did Matt Carle Get a Point?

Nope. He was on the ice at the end of the game mixing it up with everyone else and picked up a slashing penalty. So at least he was in the scorebook.

Two Down, Two to Go - Lightning Brawl Their Way to a 2-0 Series Lead

“He who fights with monsters should look to it that he himself does not become a monster”

Play against a team that interferes, hooks, shoves, obstructs and bends the rules long enough and you might begin to pick up some of their habits. While the Lightning have too much talent to completely descend into Nietzche's abyss, after playing them 13 times in the last year (4 regular season games and 9 post season) they are definitely picking up some of the Red Wings' “bad” habits.

The good news for Bolts fans is that that style plays well in the post season. On Friday night, a night before Elton's good night for fighting, the Lightning bullied the Red Wings all over the ice, winning 5-2 and leaving Amalie Arena with a 2-0 lead in the series. As the game descended into chaos around him, Tyler Johnson continued to torture the Red Wings scoring 2 goals and pickinh up 2 assists. Through the first two games Detroit has yet to find a way to slow down Tyler and the Killer K's as Johnson, Alex Killorn and Nikita Kucherov have combined to score 15 points through the first two games.

The Red Wings literally can't keep Nikita out of the net. Photo by Mike Carlson Getty Images

However, the story of the game wasn't so much Johnson's performance, but the state of affairs between the two teams. It's not very cordial. Last year, the Lightning were frustrated by the way Detroit played hockey. They tried to continue to score pretty goals and were constantly taken aback by the borderline shiftiness that the Red Wings excel at. The after-the-whistle pushing and shoving, the borderline interference and obstruction, the elbows that got up a little higher than should be allowed.

This year the Lightning seem ready for it. Not only that, they are giving just as good as they get. They seemed inspired by the play of the Prodigal Son, Jonathan Drouin, who was just as surly in Game Two as he was in Game One. After getting bloodied by an elbow from Riley Sheahan midway through the second period, Drouin literally chased the young Red Wing around the ice trying to get him to fight. Sadly we were denied the opportunity of seeing how well the former number 3 overall pick could throw hands, but it was a prime example of how this team doesn't back down from anyone.

Drouin was involved in another example later in the game when he set Brian Boyle up for his goal (the only goal not scored by Tyler and the Killers so far this season). Boyle played pretty loose with the interference rules as he took Luke Glendening out of the play which freed up the puck to start Drouin on the offensive rush.

Hey, if Boyle hadn't shoved him, Glendening would never have even touched the puck!

I would like to see the Lightning win playing a hockey version of The Beautiful Game, but I would like to see them win the Stanley Cup more. In the playoffs you can get away with more than you would in the regular season and it looks like they are starting to realize that. They can still score goals with speed and talent (see Johnson's second goal where Kucherov blows by Alexey Marchenko and sets TJ up for the perfect one-timer) but they are now getting the ugly goals as well. Johnson scored the game winner by planting himself in front of three Red Wings and whacking at the puck while taking a shove in the back.

On defense they're doing the same thing. Detroit is getting time in the offensive zone, but they're having trouble getting shots through. When they do get a shot on net either Ben Bishop is soaking it up or whatever rebound is there is cleared by the Lightning. The Red Wings are frustrated, why else would former Lady Byng winner Brad Richards touch off a game-ending brawl with a viscous slash at Andrej Sustr's legs?

Things really escalated.  I think Brick killed a guy.  Photo by Scott Audette NHLI/Getty

There is a fine line between aggressive and reckless. So far the Lightning have toed it pretty well, but now that the line match-ups are going to favor the Red Wings they will have to be careful not to get caught out of position. Roughing and fighting penalties are one thing, but if they start picking up the hooking, holding and tripping penalties that indicate a player getting beat on a play then things could escalate in a bad way for them. At some point Detroit is going to start scoring with the man advantage.

The Lightning have done a great job of antagonizing the Red Wings through the first two games (speaking of antagonizing – props to the PA guy for playing “Separate Ways” during the official timeout after the brawl. That drove Detroit fans absolutely INSANE). Now that they have them on the ropes they have to make sure to finish them off. In tight, highly-charged series like this, giving the other team even a sense that they can come back could be disastrous.

The Hopeful Chase 3 Stars:

3 - Ryan Callahan – I know he didn't have a point, but he played 19 minutes of hard hockey. He was blocking shots and breaking up passes all night long. Also, you gotta get some credit when you dive on top of a scrum to pull players off.

Callahan has his "I'm gonna hit a rookie face" going. Photo by Scott Audette NHLI/Getty

2 - Ben Bishop – Another ho-hum 30 save game for Bish. While the Lightning dominated most of the game, the big netminder made saves when he needed to, including at the end of the first. He probably would have liked to have the Dylan Larkin goal back, but for the most part he has been the wall that the Lightning need him to be.

1 - Tyler Johnson - Two goals, two assists and another huge game for the Red Wing killer. I think it's safe to say there are no lingering effects from the hit he took in the last game of the season.

Did Matt Carle Get a Point?

He did! His clearing attempt was picked up by Alex Killorn and the Harvard Man slid it into the empty net. Maybe a cheap way to pick up a point, but it still counts. Carle was on the ice for almost 20 minutes (mainly because Victor Hedman couldn't stay out of the penalty box) and it shows Coach Cooper's growing trust in him that he was on the ice at the end of the game. If Anton Stralman comes back, Carle might not be the automatic scratch (I'm looking at you, Nikita Nesterov).

One is the Loveliest Number

Let me start by saying this is not a traditional recap.  After all, how can anyone recap a game without actually watching it.  I love my job, but it is highly inconvenient to watching playoff hockey.  And while there are others out there that have a slightly higher work ethic, even I know that streaming a hockey game in the middle of the lobby while there are still 300 people left to check-in isn’t the best way to get a raise.

Checking in on the score via NHL.com in between grabbing luggage for guests and directing all the priests in Chicago to the parking garage is a much more feasible way to know what’s happening and keeping my job. So consider this more of my thoughts and observations of the Tampa Bay Lightning’s 3-2 victory over the Detroit Red Wings in Game One.

It’s always nice to get the first win out of the way, especially when you have home-ice advantage in a series.  Now they aren’t chasing anything in Game Two, and the Red Wings might play a little more desperate in trying for the split. The Lightning won by the way the Lightning have won a lot of games this season.  Ben Bishop stopped enough pucks and Nikita Kucherov scored all of the goals.  Well not all of them, but enough to win.

The reconfigured Triplets…more of a Cousins…line with Kucherov, Tyler Johnson and Alex Killorn played the role of top line to perfection.  They generated all three goals and looked dangerous throughout the entire game.  MY BOY NIKITA KUCHEROV continues his quest to jump several tax brackets by scoring two goals and chipping in an assist.  Killorn scored the game winner on a nifty deflection while Johnson, concussed or not, looked like the Tyler Johnson of last year’s playoffs which doesn’t bode well for the Red Wings.

Moving Killorn to that line allowed Coach Cooper to drop Ondrej Palat to a line with Valtteri Filppula Jonathan Drouin.  While they didn’t record a point, they did generate some opportunities and looked like a viable offensive alternative.  Palat is the best two-way forward on the team and his play allows Drouin and Filppula to be their creative selves.

Speaking of Drouin, let’s get this out of the way.  If the Drouin that played 17 minutes against the Red Wings had played that way all season long he would not have been sent to Syracuse and then banished to his couch for part of the season.  This Drouin was much more aggressive (as seen by his cross-checking penalty and the hit he threw on Justin Abdelkader right before Abdelkader scored his goal.

That is part of what was lacking in his game.  He had a tendency to coast a bit and play reactionary hockey as opposed to asserting himself on the ice.  He doesn’t need to go full Doug Glatt, but he does have to show that he isn’t going to be pushed around the ice.  As Coach Cooper said in the post game presser, he earned those minutes on the ice.

Solid game by the Prodigal Son. Photo by Getty Images

My favorite moment of his was in the second period where he blocked a pass in the defensive zone, found himself on the open side of the defenseman at the blue line and took off like he was shot out of a cannon on a partial breakaway. Instead of looking for a pass he hesitated, drew the puck back and snapped a shot just wide of the net.  It showed his skill, his speed and a desire to score instead of setting up a teammate.

I did manage to watch part of the game on my dinner break (part of watching sports while working second shift is knowing when to schedule your meals).  I managed to get about 15 minutes of the second period in so I saw both Detroit goals, Kucherov’s game-tying goal, the afore mentioned Drouin play, and the little dust up in front of the Red Wings’ goal that led to a few penalties.

These teams are starting to not like each other very much.  This is what the NHL was looking for when they restructured the playoff format.  The Lightning and the Red Wings have now met in consecutive playoff years.  Last years series went 7 games and they split the regular season this year.  Bad blood is starting to develop and started to boil up at the 11:42 mark of the second period.

After the embattled Jimmy Howard made a save, Killorn was cruising by the net when 19-year-old Dylan Larkin thought he was getting a little two close and went to shoulder him out of the way. The young Red Wing didn’t take into consideration Killorn being a Harvard Man.  Using his knowledge of leverage and force, the Lightning forward dumped the rookie on his ass. Larkin’s teammates took exception and a good ol’ fashion scrm broke out.  I’ve read recaps from both sides of the aisle, Red Wing fans thought it was dirty, Lightning fans through it was just hockey.  I tend to lean toward the Lightning side of this one.  It happens every game. Larkin just went flying off his skates and it looked worse than it was.

The dust eventually settled and no one was worse the wear for it. Braydon Coburn managed to pick up two roughing calls at the same time (one against Darren Helm and one against Danny DeKeyser) which is awesome hustle. All of the penalties off set and they skated five on five.  But for the rest of the game both teams were on edge.

It’s nice to see the Lightning play with some anger in their game, but to quote Forest Whitaker in Rouge One, “If you continue to fight, what…will…you…become?”  The Lightning do not want to turn this into a special team’s battle.  They will lose that match-up.  Frustrating the Red Wings is one thing (hell Detroit has been doing it for years), taking stupid penalties is another.  Give a team like them enough opportunities and they will make you pay.

BRAYDON SMASH!!! Solid game from #55 Photo by Getty

While it was a little discouraging to see the Lightning get outshot in the first and second periods by a combined 26-20, it was nice that Tampa Bay tightened things up in the third and for the most part carried the play.  They also bounced back from giving up two quick goals and having a go-ahead goal wiped out by an off-side review. (Let the record show that the Lightning scored the first 3-on-3 overtime goal this year AND had the first video replay in playoff history go against them)

This is how the Lightning are going to win the series. By scoring ugly goals (Kucherov’s second was a result of him standing in front of the net and banging away at a rebound) and getting 30+ saves from Ben Bishop.  It’s not good for anyone’s health, but that’s the way it has to be.

The Hopeful Chase’s Three Stars:

3. Victor Hedman - The Big Swede played 26 minutes, had a game-winning goal wiped out by replay and was his usual calm, smooth-skating self.  Damn he’s fun to watch.

2. Ben Bishop - Another day and another 34-save game.  His stop on Brad Richards with the Lightning down 2-1 in the second was my key play of the game. If he doesn’t lunge across the crease and stop that shot, the Lightning don’t win.

1. MY BOY NIKITA KUCHEROV - Two goals and an assist.  His cap hit this year was $711,666.  His cap hit next year will be quite larger.

My next contract is going to be this big! Photo by Getty Images

Did Matt Carle Get a Point?

Nope.  He did dish out 3 hits and take one shot in his 16:17 of ice time.  That seems about right for him in the playoffs.  Coach Cooper did a pretty good job of balancing out his blue line.  Hedman and Jason Garrison were the only two that topped 20 minutes, but every one else was between 12 and 18 minutes.

Tampa Vs. Detroit: Round Two - Some Playoff Thoughts

That time has come.  Most of the snow is gone, baseball is on the T.V. and the best playoffs in sports is about to get underway.  For the third year in a row, the Tampa Bay Lightning have made it to the second season.  They somehow survived six months of regular season play (by the way, my favorite line in A Few Good Men is Tom Cruise saying, “Six months. It’s nothing. It’s a HOCKEY season!” to Sgt. Dawson)* .  Six months of injuries, contract squabbles, suspensions and slightly underwhelming offense have lead the Lightning exactly where they were last year - hosting a first-round playoff series against the Red Wings.

The beauty of the playoffs is that, for the 16 teams that make it, the slate is clear.  Records don’t matter.  Previous play doesn’t matter.  The Washington Capitals and their 120 points have to win the same amount of games (16) as the Red Wings and their 93 points to get to the promised land.  Home ice advantage is big in Game 1 and Game 7, that’s why it’s worth winning games in regulation during the regular season, but those middle five games are up in the air.

So what are the Tampa Bay Lightning’s chance in the playoffs?  Decidedly middle of the pack.  Vegas Insider has them at 18/1 which is 10th out of the 16 teams (Caps are the favorites at 7/2).  On paper that seems about right.  If the team was 100% injury-free I could see them closer to 8/1 or 9/1.  Alas they are not injury free.  For the first round they will be without Steven Stamkos  Anton Stralman and Mattias Ohlund for sure.  They may or may not have Tyler Johnson while Ryan Callahan, Nikita Kucherov and Victor Hedman will probably start at less than optimal condition.

That being said.  I kind of like their chances.  If I was, or had a buddy in Vegas, I would slap down a $20 on them at 18/1. Nothing, and I mean nothing, is more important than a good goaltender in the playoffs.  A hot goalie can take a team the distance and a struggling goalie can sink even the best playoff teams (see any non-Cup winning Penguins playoff team).  Ben Bishop, healthy and rested, can put the team on his back and get them back to the finals.

Why yes, yes he will have to bend over backwards over to help them win. (Photo by Bruce Bennett/Getty Images)

He is at worst the third best goaltender in the Eastern Conference.  Braden Holtby has had a heck of a season but a losing record in the playoffs. Henrik Lundqvist probably has the unofficial title of best current goaltender to not have won the Cup, but hasn’t been as invincible as he normally is.  The Lightning won’t have to worry about either one of them until the conference finals and I’ll take Bishop in a 7 game series over Roberto Luongo, Steve Mason, and whoever the Penguins and Islanders have filling the net (Thomas Greiss and Jeff Zatkoff, come on down!)

As much as losing Tyler Johnson in the Finals last year hurt the team, the fact that Bishop could barely stand after making a save was the biggest reason they didn’t get past Game 6.  In order to advance you need a goalie that can steal a game or three in a series.  Based on his season this year, Bishop is that guy.

Of course, the one thing he can’t do is score goals.  The Lighting are going to have to rely on the likes of Jonathan Marchessault, Erik Condra and Brian Boyle for offense way to much for my liking.  Look for their opponents to shut down the Triplets line at every opportunity.  That line will be drawing the top defensive pairing all playoffs long.

Bonus Caption Prediction - Alex Killorn scores at least 2 big goals

So does Coach Cooper keep them together or shift Kucherov onto a line with Jonathan Drouin in hopes of spreading out the coverage a bit?  Well, knowing him he will try both approaches, several times. Last year it took the Lightning a few games to get used to playoff hockey - this year it seems they’ve been playing it since day one.  They’ve been more of a grind it out team then the high-flying offense we aw a year ago.  While they haven’t totally broke off their love affair with the pretty goal, they have done much better at focusing on getting the puck on the net and scoring ugly goals (Brian Boyle on the power play as exhibit number one).

Before the season started I had the Lightning as a team that would bow out in the second round of the playoffs.  I still feel that way. I do think they are better than the Red Wings, mainly because of Bishop.  If they get to the second round, who knows, maybe Stamkos is back. The nice thing about a blood clot (if there can be such a thing) is that it isn’t an injury that the other team can focus on (unless they put blood thickeners in his Gatorade).

Even with Stamkos out I’m way more nervous about the defense than I am the offense.  The thought of Dylan Larkin turning Matt Carle into a pretzel isn’t quite keeping me up at night, but it’s not a soothing cup of warm milk either. If Hedman is indeed healthy then Coach Cooper needs to run him into the ice Duncan Keith-style (without the post-whistle stick work).

Cooper likes to balance things out and keep Hedman and Stralman at a nice even 20-ish minutes a game.  That’s ok for the regular season, but in the playoffs you need your horses on the ice as much as possible and your Matt Carle’s playing a nice 12 minutes or so a game.  The Big Swede is 25-years-old, one of the best defensemen in the league and a potential game changer.  While he still has the occasional boneheaded play, he is still the best skating, puck-handling blue liner on the team.  Hedman at 70% is better than Carle at 110%.

However, it shouldn’t be all on Hedman’s shoulders.  Jason Garrison and Braydon Coburn are going to have to step up their production as well. Coburn scored 10 points in 80 games this season. That’s not good.  That’s not good at all. We all heaped a tremendous amount of shit on Carle this season and he ended up with 9 points in 16 less games.  I know Coburn isn’t the 20 goal scorer he once was with the Flyers and he is one of the few Lightning players that knows how to throw a check, but he’s got to chip in more.

Andrej Sustr and Nikita Nesterov need to keep doing what they do.  Just contribute, don’t make mistakes and fire off the occasional shot.  It will be interesting to see how Sustr plays in the postseason.  He ended up with 21 points on the season by picking his spots to join in the rush.  Will he continue to be aggressive or will he be a little more conservative since more is on the line? Ah the fun of the playoffs!

So I guess I’m picking the Lightning to win in six.  Bishop picks up two shutouts (including a 1-0 double overtime win).

Some other predictions:

By the time the playoff dust settles Jonathan Drouin scores more points in the playoffs than he did in the regular season.  He solidifies himself as a member of the organization and this weird, wacky winter is forgotten.

Jonathan Marchessault wins the Nikita Kucherov Award for the most “Why is Cooper benching him again!!!!” Tweets generated.  (The award went to Drouin in 2015).

The “Stamkos is skating/will he play?” storyline starts around Game 4.

Vlad Namestnikov plays with no less than 7 different linemates in five games.

Heart attacks in the Tampa Bay Area increase by 264% the at the exact moment Carle and Nesterov end up on the ice together against the Larkin/ Henrik Zetterberg/ Justin Abdelkader line.

Darren Helm and Tomas Jurco will score an inordinate amount of goals against the Lightning.

The reason people want to shoot Pierre McGuire this year is his harping on Pavel Datsyuk going back to Russia after this season.

My boss complains about my playoff beard by Game 3.

Playoff Beard 2011 (yes I was unemployed at the time. Why do you ask?)

The other series:

Panthers over the Islanders in five
Washington over Philadelphia in four
Penguins over Rangers in seven

Dallas over Minnesota in five
Blues over Blackhawks in seven (upset special!)
Anaheim over Nashville in six
Kings over Sharks in seven (best series).

Feel free to do what everyone in my family does and bet the exact opposite and collect your winnings.










*That’s a lie.  My actual favorite line is the “You’re a lousy f*ckin’ softball player, Jack”.

Game 73: The One That Got Them To First

Game: 73

Opponent: Detroit

Score: 6-2 W

Thoughts:

Well, that is one way to answer the bell. In what could be described as their first real test of the season, the Lightning used a combination of skill, luck and some Detroit bungling to hammer the Red Wings by a score of 6-2. The win propelled Tampa Bay back into the top spot in the Atlantic division.

As discussed the last time we met here, the Lightning were kicking off a six-game homestand with the three most important games on the schedule. Detroit came in fighting for their playoff lives, but as one of the hotter teams in Eastern Conference. In their previous game they had come back from two goals down to beat the Florida Panthers.

Early on it looked like they were going to try and best that comeback by getting down by three goals to the Lightning. Each goal had it's own little flavor to it. The first goal was the result of the Detroit defense getting a little lackadaisical and allowing Brian Boyle to hit Ondrej Palat on a long stretch pass. That led to Palat and Erik Condra attacking 2-on-1. Palat fed Condra a nice pass and the Michigan native roofed it just under the bar for his first goal since December 5^th.

Condra was in the game, along with Jonathan Marchessault due to injuries to Valteri Filppula and Ryan Callahan. He only played about 10 minutes, but played them like he didn't want to go back to the bench. Marchessault didn't register a point, but was his usual pesky self.

Goal number two was the result of J.T. Brown (who had a good game) working hard to generate a shot on net. Jimmy Howard couldn't find the puck which was sitting right between his legs. Vlad Namestnikov happened to be in the right spot and slammed it between the goalie's wickets for his career best 13^th goal.

Goal three was just bad luck for the Red Wings. Steven Stamkos steamed down the right hand side and looked to pass it back to Alex Killorn who was open in front of the net. Unfortunately for Killorn it never made it through the defense. Red Wings defenseman Jonathan Ericsson did a great job of blocking the pass with his skate. He didn't do a great job of controlling where the puck went. It hit his skate and ricocheted past Howard and into the back of the net. Stamkos got credit for his 34^th goal – hey, they can't all be blistering slapshots.

The game seemed in hand for the Lightning. A three goal lead, Detroit looked a step off and weren't putting any pressure on Ben Bishop. Most of the shots they attempted were blocked. Of course, because the Lightning can't do anything easy, they let Detroit back into the game. Justin Abdelkader scored on the power play and then Darren Helm got the Wings within one seven minutes later.

Darren Helm doesn't need his skates on the ground to score. Photo by Scott Audette NHLI/Getty

Shades of the Winnipeg game were rearing its ugly head. Were they going keel over or could they hold off the desperate Wings? Two minutes after Helm's goal the Lightning got a bit of a break. While already on the power play Abdelkader kind of skated into MY BOY NIKITA KUCHEROV with his stick out. He made contact with MBNK's back and pushed him into the boards. The ref's hand went up and the Lightning suddenly had a 5-on-3 power play.

One does not get away with gently pushing Kucherov to the ice. Shortly into the two-man advantage Tyler Johnson fired a pass across the crease to MBNK who was all alone at the side of the net and he slammed the puck into the gaping wide net. It was the 28^th goal for the restricted free agent and probably jacked his next contract up a couple of hundred thousand dollars. The goal broke the Red Wings back and the Lightning would tack two more goals on in the third to complete the rout.

Hey, just hanging by the post. Mind if I slide this puck into the net. Scott Audette NHLI/Getty

The Lightning were tested and they passed. They outplayed the Red Wings for the vast majority of the game and didn't let the momentum get the best of them during the second period. Their passes were crisp and the blocked a ton of shots (14 by the official count). For once, Bishop didn't have to stand on his head to win a game. In fact I can't really remember him having to make any difficult saves.

The win not only put them in first place but also knocked the Red Wings out of the playoffs for the moment. Their next game is against the Islanders in, what is a nice quirk with the playoff seedings, could be a preview of a first round match-up.

Did Matt Carle Get a Point?

Sadly our hero did not log a point despite the offensive explosion. Coach Cooper went with an 11 forward / 7 defensemen lineup with Carle suiting up as the 7^th defennseman. He was only on the ice for 11:41 but did manage to finish as a solid +2. After his 3 points in 4 game explosion back in February Carle has now gone 10 points without a point.

I'm sure its been hard for him to adjust to his new role after a career as a point-generating top pairing blueliner. However, he has done it professionally and quietly. So credit to him for being a team player.

Post Season Prediction Time!

Playoff Beard Circa 2010-11

The sun is out. The long johns are back in storage. I’m growing a beard. That can mean only one thing.  PLAYOFF HOCKEY!  That’s right! It’s the best time of the year (other than Christmas -Christmas is the best). For the second straight year there is late April action in Hockey Bay, USA.


After a record-setting regular season campaign, the Lightning find themselves with home ice advantage against the Detroit Red Wings, a match-up that everyone was quick to dub The Yzerman Bowl. Oddly enough, for the first time all year, Mr. Yzerman has almost no control over what happens.  The rosters are set. He can’t pull off any more trades, sign any free agents, or tinker with the roster at all.  He can only sit high in the press box and scowl down at the ice. Luckily he’s pretty good at scowling.

Not a scowl, but c'mon how could I not post this picture? (Photo from COMC.com)

It’s understandable why the focus is on Mr. Yzerman. After all, he did have a Hall-of-Fame career with the Red Wings, learned the GM trade at the foot of Detroit General Manager Ken Holland and built the Lightning in the model of the Wings.  Besides what else are we going to focus on? Drew Miller going against his old team?

How do I feel two days away from game one?  Kind of excited. This should be an entertaining match-up between two teams with skill. I think the Bolts match-up pretty well against the Red Wings, but then again I thought they matched up well against the Canadiens last year and that didn’t turn out so well.

Detroit is a good, but not great team with a bit of a goalie problem and some aging stars. If the Lightning can generate turnovers (something they failed to do against Montreal last year) I‘m cautiously optimistic that they can take the series.  Detroit is a team that doesn’t make many mistakes so the Lightning will have to take advantage when they can.

While this is the first playoff match-up against the two franchises, a lot of the players that will be taking the ice have played against each other with a championship on the line. In 2013, the Syracuse Crunch (AHL affiliate of the Lightning) lost to the Grand Rapid Giffins (AHL affiliate of the Red Wings) in the Calder Cup finals.  Six current members of the Lightning roster (Andrej Sustr, Mark Barberio, Tyler Johnson, Ondrej Palat, Vlad Namestnikov, JT Brown) and nine current members of the Red Wings  (Gustav Nyquist, Joakim Andersson, Riley Sheahan, Tomas Tatar, Tomas Jurco, Landon Ferraro, Luke Glendening, Danny Dekeyser, Petr Mrazek) played in that series.

See what I mean about Mr. Yzerman copying the Red Wings philosophy? Draft well and develop your in-house talent.  I don’t have the time or inclination to see if two franchises have ever had that many players meet in a Calder Cup series and a NHL playoff series, but to me it seems highly unlikely.  Hopefully the TampaCuse boys can exact some revenge against the team that beat them two years ago.

As I was doing that research I was kind of surprised that many young players skated on the Red Wings roster. To me the Red Wings were an aging franchise relying on offense from Pavel Datsyuk and Henrik Zetterberg and questionable hits from Niklas Kronwall.  Shows you how much of the Red Wings I’ve watched this year, eh?  I’ll blame that on my work schedule.

The biggest question mark for the Red Wings is going to be in the net.  After riding out the end of the season immersed in a goaltending battle with incumbent Jimmy Howard, Mrazek emerged as the starter. He finished the season with a 35-save shutout against the Carolina Hurricanes and in his last start against the Lightning on March 28th he turned away all 23 shots he faced in the Wings only win against Tampa.  So he should have some confidence going into the series.

As for the Lightning, the status of the defense is going to keep Coach Cooper up at night. The good news is that it looks like at least two of the injured blue liners will be ready to go for Game 1. Braydon Coburn has been participating fully in practice this week while Andrej Sustr, despite wearing the red no-contact jersey in practice, is hopeful that he’ll be ready by Thursday. Unfortunately, Jason Garrison (who doesn’t have as much playoff experience as I thought - only 8 games) probably won’t return until the middle of the series at the earliest.

Detroit will be looking to exploit the lack of experience on Tampa’s defense with a viscous forecheck. Their offense, like the Lightning, is based on creating offensive chances off of turnovers.  I would expect them to pressure the defense of the Lightning and hope to force them into mistakes.  It will be imperative that Tampa’s forwards don’t break out of the zone to early leaving their teammates without multiple passing options (expect Bobby Taylor to talk about “gap control” at least 156 times during the series….I’m going to miss The Chief).

The other storyline for the Lightning is going to be Ben Bishop’s lack of experience in the playoffs. In fact, people have been talking about that for at least two months now. To me, it’s not that big of a deal.  After all, every goalie that’s ever played in the playoffs has had a “lack of experience” until he’s played his first game. Critics said that Bishop would struggle as a number one goalie because he didn’t have that experience either, and things turned out pretty ok in that regard.  I believe that good goalies will be good no matter their background. If games played in the postseason mattered, the one goalie in this series with actual playoff experience (Jimmy Howard) would be starting.  Bishop will be just fine.

Having Ben Bishop between the pipes is one of the big reasons I’m cautiously optimistic instead of cautiously pessimistic. He managed to make it through the end of the season without hurting himself diving needlessly after a puck. However, he isn’t the only one that’s healthier this time around in the post-season.

Last year, Ondrej Palat played in 3 of the 4 games, but he wasn’t the same Palat that garnered rookie of the year votes. Valtteri Filppula was also banged up a bit. Having those two players at near full strength does so much to round out the roster. Filppula might have the best hands on the team (although Jo Drouin is rising to the challenge) and his ability to set up his teammates gives the Lightning a 3rd line that is just as dangerous as the top two.

While the Triplets have been successful when Palat has missed time this year, they are simply deadly when he is healthy. Despite having all-world goal-scorer Steven Stamkos on the roster, they are the top line on the Lightning. As they go, so does the team.

Special teams will be an interesting sub plot. The Lightning have stumbled around with the extra man all year finishing 14th in the league. For whatever reason (cough..cough.. trouble getting the puck in the zone) they struggle despite the offensive talent they have. The Red Wings, not so much, as they have cruised to a robust 23% success rate with the man advantage.

While less penalties are called in the playoffs it means that each power play has a little more importance. The Lightning have to find a way to at least generate chances when they have the opportunity. I think that the series will be won based on 5-on-5 play (and overtime), but if the Lightning waste their power play chances it could come back to haunt them.

Will any former Tampa Bay Lightning members come back to haunt them in this series?  There are two possibilities - Drew Miller and Kyle Quincy.  Miller is a defensive forward who played with the Lightning for 14 games in 2009-10. He isn’t on the ice to score goals, which, based on last season’s playoffs means he is going to score 4 times against the Lightning (see Weise, Dale)


Wait, you say, Kyle Quincey? He never wore the uniform.  That’s true, but for the briefest of moments he was a member of the Lightning.  Back in 2012 the Lightning weren’t very good. They did have a couple of bright spots. One of them was a hellion on skates named Steve Downie. The Lightning, wanting young Downie to be a success traded him to the Colorado Avalanche for Kyle Quincey. Mr. Yzerman, knowing his old team needed some help on defense, quickly swapped Quincy for a first round pick and something called a Sebastien Piche.  With that first round pick Mr. Yzerman selected a young goaltender from Tyumen, Russia with a pain-in-the-ass name to spell. That man will be backing up Ben Bishop - Andrei Vasilevskiy.

Was this digression included so that I could post a photo of Downie? You betcha! (Photo from nj.com)

That moment in Lightning history is brought to you by the good folks at Argo Tea.  Argo Tea - where bloggers blog and old people argue about the Super Flu (seriously, as I type this four old people behind me are almost ready to fight each other about the flu. I’m scared to turn around)

Quincey has been a steady defensemen for  the Wings averaging about 19 minutes per game and chipping in 18 points this season. While his work won’t show up on the score sheet he will be instrumental in shutting down the Lightning attack. If he can disrupt the passing lanes (the Lightning do love them some cross-ice passes) then their offense will stall and things will get dicey.

After all of this typing what do I think is going to happen?  The high-power offense sputters a bit, but the Triplets end up being too much for the Wings. I say the Lightning win in six games. I’m apparently not alone in predicting a Lightning win, which kind of makes me nervous.  But sometimes you just have to believe that the best team will win.

Predictions:

Top Goal Scorer - Stamkos
Top Point Getter - Johnson
Number of OT games - 2
Games I watch in Real Time - 2
Most Penalty Minutes - Mark Barberio
Dumbest Penalty - Nikita Kucherov
Odd Man Rushes for Detroit - 6
Goals off Odd Man Rushes - 2

Bonus Prediction - there will be no picture as great as this picture.